Coby Mayo isn’t the first top Orioles prospect to be sent back to Triple-A after struggling in his first taste of the major leagues.
Baltimore’s decision to option the 22-year-old to Triple-A Norfolk on Thursday spelled a disappointing end to Mayo’s first run with the Orioles. He hit .059 (1-for-17) with a single, three walks and 10 strikeouts in seven games, a far cry from the level of production he has put up in the minor leagues on his way to being named Baseball America’s No. 12 overall prospect.
But the Orioles have been through this before with several of their best farmhands.
Grayson Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA over his first 10 career starts in 2023, prompting the Orioles to option him two months into the year. Colton Cowser went 7-for-61 (.115) in his lone stint with the club last season and had to wait until opening day to crack the roster again. Jackson Holliday, the most highly touted prospect of any of them, spent three months with Triple-A Norfolk working to improve on his 2-for-34 (.059) performance in April.
It’s raised questions over whether the talent gap between the highest level of the minors and the major leagues is wider than ever — a sentiment shared by Orioles’ executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias, though he can’t pinpoint why exactly.
“It certainly feels that way, and I’m surprised now when they don’t struggle right away, especially the young ones,” Elias told The Baltimore Sun on Thursday.
“I don’t know if it’s because so many teams now have a precise way of grading pitchers’ stuff and so that they’re selecting who’s going to be effective in the major leagues better and leaving other guys from Triple-A longer. I don’t know if that’s the reason. I don’t know if it’s just randomness. I don’t know if it’s just how fast hitters are moving through the minors. I don’t know, but it seems really hard and it is certainly no shame to come up and have a rough two weeks your first go of it because we’re seeing some of the very best prospects in baseball do it and then get over it pretty quickly, too.”
The Orioles aren’t alone. First-year players across the majors are struggling, particularly on offense, to acclimate themselves in the majors. Heading into play Thursday, rookies had combined for a .666 OPS this season for the league’s lowest mark in a decade. Offense is down league-wide in 2024, but a report from theScore on Wednesday showed that MLB rookies’ average OPS has been 100 points below that of Triple-A hitters each of the last two seasons. It’s the biggest disparity since at least 2010.
Other top prospects, such as the Milwaukee Brewers’ Jackson Chourio (.575 OPS over his first 57 games) and the Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero (9-for-41 to begin his career), have gotten off to slow starts as well despite crushing Triple-A pitching. To find a qualified rookie who reached stardom right away — finishing a season with an OPS over .900 — you have to go all the way back to New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso five years ago.
“It’s a different environment coming up in a divisional race, trying to make a push for the playoffs,” said Cowser, who has overcome his rough debut in 2023 to thrust himself into the running for the American League Rookie of the Year Award. “And no matter how much people say it’s the same game, it’s not, between Triple-A and here. But I think it gets to the point where it does start to feel the same. That can take a little bit.”
The Orioles have shown patience with many of their top prospects over the past few seasons, drawing complaints from fans for not adding Holliday to their opening day roster and waiting until August to promote Mayo. Among other reasons, the leap in competition between Triple-A and the majors has played a role in their decision-making.
“It makes us try to stay disciplined and be careful,” Elias said. “Everyone sees these guys doing great in Triple-A and gets excited for them and that’s nice. We understand that it’s probably not going to convert right away, but I do think there’s a point in time where you put in your work in Triple-A and you put in your time there and you don’t want it to get stale, and so we maybe lean into calling up a kid when that opportunity presents itself even if we think he might struggle once he’s once he’s kind of earned the call-up. I think there’s some value to that.”
As for Mayo’s outlook, neither Elias nor manager Brandon Hyde expressed concern over his performance in such a small sample size. They hope he benefited from the experience of facing MLB-quality pitching and recognizing the amount of work it takes to stick at the highest level. With rosters expanding by two spots in September, Elias said “the possibility of him coming back up is always going to be front and center” and he would be considered for a quick return.
“Anybody that’s 6-foot-6 and athletic and big and strong, that has power that he has, he’s got the ability to hit the ball,” Hyde said. “He’s going to hit a lot of home runs in this league. People are gonna go soft, away, hard up and in. Until you’re able to make that adjustment back, that’s all you’re going to see and so now he knows that.”
The Orioles aren’t looking for Mayo to make any changes mechanically, but rather focus on attacking the types of pitches he saw the most in the big leagues. Mayo will spend most of his time defensively at third base — the position the Orioles will likely need him most if he does return this season after All-Star Jordan Westburg fractured his hand — and Elias expressed confidence in the youngster’s ability to stay there long term.
“I think that he’s going to spend the preponderance of his time at third still and when he comes back up, that’s likely going to be the position he’s asked to play again,” Elias said. “So, I think it makes sense to stay there. He can do it, and he can play third base at the major league level and he will play third base at the major level. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t other positions that you’re going to play, or other positions that you might project better at over a very long period of time, but we want to keep preparing Coby to play third base in the big leagues because we’re going to be asking to do that.”