New trend alert for NFL offenses; ranking top five pass-catching groups
Bucky Brooks, NFL.com
As the NFL evolves into a passing league built around three-receiver sets, some team builders are looking to zig while the rest of the league zags. Instead of trotting out 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB) to spread out defenses stocked with extra defensive backs and hybrid linebackers, shrewd schemers are utilizing old-school formations from 12 personnel packages (2 WRs, 2 TEs, 1 RB) to create and exploit mismatches all over the field.
Last season, teams utilized 12 personnel on 19.3 percent of offensive snaps, ranking behind only 11 personnel (62.1%) for the most common usage. That ranked as the second-highest rate of 12 personnel deployment in a single season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). While it’s not a drastic leap from the previous season’s rate (18.4%), teams like Green Bay could be jump-starting a 12 personnel trend.
Two tight end formations force the opposition to defend an extra gap while negating the advantages of an eight-man front. The grouping also limits coverage selection due to the four verticals threat that can emerge. With the offense also capable of setting up mismatches by forcing linebackers to handle the quickness of a Flex tight end and pitting overwhelmed defensive backs against the physicality of a Y tight end, I believe the increased use of 12 personnel should be a no-brainer for play-callers.
We could see the 12 personnel crowd grow in 2024, with the Baltimore Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders featuring an intriguing collection of tight ends. Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely seemed to endorse the idea when he discussed the team’s potential to use two tight end formations with the third-year pro joining Mark Andrews on the field, flanked by Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman at receiver, with Derrick Henry at running back and Lamar Jackson under center.
Will Devontez Walker be Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 deep threat?
Jamison Hensley, ESPN
Walker’s strengths are his size (6-feet-1, 191 pounds), speed and ability to outleap defenders. In eight games last season, he totaled nine receptions on passes thrown at least 20 yards in the air.
Walker has patterned his game after A.J. Green, who tormented Baltimore from 2011 to 2020 as a receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. DeCosta compared Walker to Torrey Smith, whose big plays downfield helped the Ravens to a Super Bowl in 2012. In college, Walker and Smith built reputations on explosiveness by outrunning cornerbacks on deep routes. But both came to the NFL with questions about consistently catching the ball.
“[Smith] made big plays when they counted,” DeCosta said. “He’s a glue guy, and I just think Tez has a lot of the same qualities.”
In four seasons with Baltimore, Smith totaled 21 catches on passes of at least 30 yards. That’s still more than double what any other Ravens player has managed over the past 12 seasons.
The deep passing game has been a weak point for Jackson and the Ravens. Last season, he connected on seven passes on throws of 30 yards or more, completing 26.9% of those attempts (which ranked 18th in the league).
This all could change with Walker, who called it an honor to play with Jackson.
50 Words or Less: Baltimore Has Turned Into Weight Watchers
Ryan Mink, BaltimoreRavens.com
While Jackson is still by far the league’s best running threat at QB, his speed diminished some last season, per Next Gen Stats. He didn’t have as much of a pull-away gear, as evidenced by a top speed of 19.62 mph that was the slowest of his six seasons.
If a leaner Jackson equals higher speed, count me in. Jackson was caught from behind when he snagged his own tipped pass in the AFC Championship against the Chiefs. Had Jackson been even a hair faster, he probably would’ve pulled away for an 82-yard touchdown. Less runs, more big runs.
With Wiggins, the biggest factor is commitment because he absolutely can put on more muscle. This “issue” is easily fixable. Wiggins confirmed his willingness to add weight in an interview on “Glenn Clark Radio” this week. And in terms of willingness, Wiggins doesn’t shy away from contact.
Rookie offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten is another player who the Ravens believe can be even better once he adds some muscle. The mobility, the technique, the smarts, the toughness – the makings are there for a really high-level player. When he gets stronger in his lower half, watch out.
One UDFA to watch on each NFL roster
Thomas Valentine, PFF
BALTIMORE RAVENS: OT JULIAN PEARL, ILLINOIS
Pearl was one of the better undrafted offensive linemen on the market and the Ravens, with needs on the offensive line, duly snapped up his services. In his five years at Illinois, Pearl had a penchant for versatility, biding his time between both tackle spots and some time at guard. That positional flexibility is nothing but a plus.
2024 AFC North Offseason Report Card: Key Additions, Subtractions, Final Grades
Matt Verderame, Sports Illustrated
Baltimore Ravens
Offseason grade: C+
Key additions: CB Nate Wiggins, RB Derrick Henry
Key losses: Edge Jadeveon Clowney, WR Odell Beckham Jr., RB J.K. Dobbins, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson, RB Gus Edwards, S Geno Stone, LB Patrick Queen
Analysis: The Ravens lost plenty this offseason due to a cap crunch, but perhaps the biggest departure isn’t a player.
Baltimore watched as former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald took the head coaching job with the Seattle Seahawks, leaving the Ravens to replace him with Zach Orr, the team’s inside linebackers coach.
Orr won’t have the same talent to work with, as the Ravens lost Clowney, Stone and Queen. That said, Baltimore still has plenty of stars on defense, including All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith, defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, veteran edge rusher Kyle Van Noy and corner Marlon Humphrey among others.
Offensively, the Ravens gained a future Hall of Fame running back in Henry, while second-year running back Keaton Mitchell will return at some point off a torn ACL. The unit should be strong again, with quarterback Lamar Jackson coming off another MVP award while receiver Zay Flowers should improve entering his second campaign.