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Ravens News 9/3: Big Blitzes

September 4, 2024 by Baltimore Beatdown

NFL: AFC Championship-Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Lamar Jackson Wants Patrick Mahomes’ Titles, But Playing His Own Way

Clifton Brown, BaltimoreRavens.com

For Jackson, his 1-4 career record against the Chiefs led by Mahomes makes them the opponent that has given him the most trouble. Last year’s 17-10 loss to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game was heartbreaking for the Ravens, who were denied a trip to the Super Bowl while the Chiefs marched to their second straight Lombardi Trophy.

While Mahomes has enjoyed the upper hand, his admiration for Jackson was clear when he met with reporters following the Chiefs’ practice on Sunday. Success hasn’t made Mahomes complacent because he’s obsessed with winning. In Jackson, the youngest player to win two MVP’s, Mahomes admires Jackson’s genuine desire to win.

“More than athletic ability and the ability to throw is the way he competes,” Mahomes said. “He’s a guy that competes every single week. You can tell he cares. You can tell he wants to go out there and win and he wants to put it on his shoulders to take his team to where they can win as many games as possible.

“That’s truly what it takes to be a great quarterback in this league. It’s not always about talent. It’s about, can you go out there and compete every single week and find ways whenever you don’t have your best stuff, your team doesn’t have your best stuff, you find ways to win football games that way.”

The Chiefs blitzed the Ravens’ Super Bowl hopes into oblivion. Does Lamar Jackson have an answer?

Jonas Shaffer, The Baltimore Banner

It wasn’t even the volume of blitzes that stood out in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s game plan; it was the intensity. In their 17-10 upset win over the top-seeded Ravens, the Chiefs blitzed Jackson on 43.5% of his drop-backs, according to TruMedia — above Kansas City’s season-long blitz rate (37%), but not even Jackson’s most blitzed game of the postseason. (In a divisional-round loss, the Houston Texans sent five or more pass rushers after Jackson on an incredible 75.9% of his drop-backs.) Jackson capably handled the Chiefs’ five-man pressure packages, going 7-for-12 for 112 yards and a touchdown.

What wrecked the Ravens’ offense were Spagnuolo’s “big blitzes.” Jackson faced at least six pass rushers on seven drop-backs. He was sacked once and finished 1-for-6 for 13 yards — the one completion, improbably, ending in Jackson’s hands after a tipped pass by safety Justin Reid. He ended the game with a dreadful minus-0.76 expected points added per big-blitz drop-back. (For comparison, the lowest overall EPA per drop-back any quarterback posted against the Ravens last season was minus-0.67.)

As the Ravens prepare for Thursday’s season opener against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, their own postseason aspirations could rest on Jackson’s blitz bona fides. They have seen every kind of pressure in Jackson’s five years as a starter. Now the Ravens must prove they can handle the biggest ones.

They need Jackson and coordinator Todd Monken to have escape plans, either before the snap or after it. They need their linemen to protect the pocket, or hold it together for as long as possible. They need their receivers to get open, whether their routes are planned or improvised. They need to tilt the risk-reward calculus back in their favor.

Ravens have to prove they’re still one of the best at developing talent

Mike Preston, The Baltimore Sun

Even though they don’t want to admit it, the Ravens are in a modest rebuild hindered by some salary cap restrictions. They still have to sign extensions with prominent players such as safety Kyle Hamilton and center Tyler Linderbaum in the immediate future.

So, the current team is like one of those “The Price is Right” shows. Hey, guards Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele, come on down. Unfortunately, both are here to stay for a while. The alternatives aren’t good, and that was clearly evident in the Ravens’ 30-7 preseason loss to the Green Bay Packers on Aug. 24.

“We have a lot of really good young players; and we’re going to have more challenges, because looking out in the next couple years, starting after this season, we’re going to have some really, really good players that we can extend,” Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said. “It’s going to be challenging, but we’re going to try to keep as much of our young talent here in Baltimore as we can.”

The Ravens have enough prime-time players to jell, but it will come down to the development of young talent, especially on the offensive line. The organization has to prove again that its reputation is legitimate.

If not, this season could be a struggle.

2024 AFC win-total projections: Chiefs remain team to beat; Jets, Ravens, Texans earn division crowns

Cynthia Frelund, NFL.com

Baltimore Ravens

PROJECTED AFC NORTH CHAMPIONS

Wins: 10.5

The Ravens’ ceiling might look lower than you’d expect, but that is because the AFC North is my toughest-rated division this season (meaning more in-division games are closer to 50/50 contests) and Baltimore plays the first-place schedule, where its three unique opponents were all first-place finishers in their respective divisions last season, as opposed to cellar dwellers (this is part of why the Bengals slide ahead of the Browns and the Steelers).

And because the Ravens’ quarterback is so special, we need a fun Lamar Jackson NGS note to start the season: Jackson has gained +1,768 rushing yards over expected since entering the league in 2018, +399 more RYOE than the next-closest player over that span, Browns RB Nick Chubb (+1,369).

My first bet: Early picks for NFL Week 1

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN

Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Several well-respected sportsbooks — both in Vegas and offshore — have already adjusted south to Chiefs -2.5 thanks to an influx of sophisticated Ravens money. With Baltimore +3 (-120) still available at ESPN BET, I’m getting down now before the key number of “3” disappears.

Since taking over as head coach in Baltimore back in 2008, John Harbaugh is an utterly unthinkable 12-4 straight-up and against the spread in Week 1. That 75% hit rate jumps to 85.7% (6-1 SU and ATS) from 2017 to present day, with a bonkers +18.9 cover margin. Look for newly acquired running back Derrick Henry and the Baltimore rushing attack to keep the Ravens offense on the field… and Patrick Mahomes off it.

Filed Under: Ravens

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