Ravens should not add a rookie running back until Day 3 of the draft at the earliest

The team has proven they can find talent in the later rounds and absolute gems in undrafted free agency.

The Baltimore Ravens currently have just two running backs under contract slated to return for the 2024 season—Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell—and one of them is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in mid-December of the 2023 season. General Manager Eric DeCosta will likely add between two to three players at the position who stand a chance of making the roster between now and the start of training camp.

There are multiple tiers of free agents to choose from including bringing back either J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards, taking a big swing on a notable name such as Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, and moderately affordable options such as D’Andre Swift or Zach Moss.

One avenue that the Ravens will definitely be looking to add more talent to their backfield is through the draft and undrafted free agency where they’ve had a rich history of finding talent and key rotational contributors.

With limited projected cap space when the new league year begins after placing the franchise tag on Pro Bowl defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, going the rookie route at running back is the most likely course DeCosta will take and the wisest allocation of the team’s finite resources.

While the Ravens have struck gold and hit some home runs when they’ve drafted players at the position in the first two days of the NFL Draft such as Jamal Lewis, Ray Rice, and Dobbins had he stayed healthy, they have also had tremendous success exhibiting patience and waiting until Day 3 or even after the draft concluded to address the position.

There have been several notable mid-to-later running backs and fullbacks who have carved out roles on offense and had success over the years. Chester Taylor (sixth round 2002) was a nice complement to Lewis before going onto have a nice career as a starter with Minnesota Vikings. Le’Ron McClain (fourth-round 2007) ran for a career-high 902 yards and 10 touchdowns as an All-Pro fullback in 2008. Kyle Juszczyk (fourth-round 2013) made his first of eight straight Pro Bowls as a fullback with the Ravens in 2016. Javorius ‘Buck’ Allen (fourth-round 2015) eclipsed 840 scrimmage yards twice in his four years with the team from 2015-18. Kenneth Dixon (fourth-round 2016) was a nice change of pace back when healthy in 2016 and 2018.

The most recent example is Hill (fourth-round 2019) who bided his time and worked his way up through special teams and was the unsung hero of the Ravens’ offense in many ways in 2023 which resulted in him setting new career highs across the board.

If the Ravens opt to not draft a rookie running back altogether, they’ve shown that they are just as capable of finding hidden gems that fall through the cracks at the position as undrafted free agents. Before going on to becoming a three-time First-Team All-Pro with the Kansas City Chiefs, Priest Holmes signed with the Ravens after going undrafted out of Texas in 1997 and recorded his first 1,000-yard rushing season in 1998.

Edwards went undrafted out of Rutgers in 2018 and has been one of the most efficient ball carriers in the league averaging five or more yards per carry in his first five years in the league. He is also one of the NFL’s best short-yardage and goal-line runners who recorded a career-high and team-leading 13 touchdowns in 2023 to go along with a career-high 990 scrimmage yards (810 rushing and 180 receiving).

Despite testing well at last year’s NFL Scouting Combine which included blazing a 4.37 second 40-yard dash, Mitchell went undrafted out of East Carolina. After spending the first five games of the season on injured reserve, he burst onto the scene at the midway point and quickly established himself as one of the most explosive playmakers in the league. Mitchell recorded at least one play of 20-plus yards from scrimmage in six straight games and was averaging a staggering 8.4 yards per carry before he was tragically lost for the remainder of his electric rookie season with a severe injury.

The 2024 NFL Draft running back class is one that by DeCosta’s own admission is “ probably not as deep as some other positions.” However, that doesn’t mean that they can’t find some talented prospects on Day 3 to replace some of the talent they could lose in free agency.

A few prospects that fit the mold include Louisville’s Isaac Guerendo, Notre Dame’s Audric Estime’, Kentucky’s Ray Davis, South Dakota State’s Isaiah Davis, Washington’s Dillion Johnson, TCU’s Emani Bailey, and South Mississippi’s Frank Gore Jr.

Prior to this year’s NFL Scouting Combine, Guerendo would’ve fit the bill perfectly given the lack of treadwear on his legs after not getting to start until his fifth year in college and his extensive experience on special teams returning and covering kicks. However, he might have tested his way into the third round if not even late second consideration.

Estime’ was looked at as a lock to go on Day 2 heading into the Combine but after running the second-slowest 40-yard dash time and not testing well overall, some analysts believe his stock took a blow and he is now firmly an early Day 3 option. Nevertheless, he was highly productive in his final two years of college, eclipsing 1,000 scrimmage yards in both seasons including recording career highs in rushing yards (1,341) and touchdowns (18) as a senior in 2023.

At 5-foot-11 and 221 pounds, he is a big-bodied back who runs through contact, averaged 6.2 yards per carry in college, and would be an ideal replacement for Edwards if he is not brought back. He told reporters during his media availability last Friday that he met with the Ravens at the Combine including Head Coach John Harbaugh and said that they “think highly” of him and he believes he’d be a “very good fit.”

Neither Davis lit up the Combine either but were highly productive in college at their respective programs. Both are bigger backs with well-rounded skill sets that make them ideal Day 3 picks that could carve out roles in a backfield committee as rookies. Johnson broke out as the bell cow for the Huskies on their way to a national championship appearance and is a bruiser of a ball carrier who rarely goes down on first contact when healthy.

Bailey and Gore Jr. are undersized but are two names to monitor nonetheless and not just because one of them is the son of a future Hall of Famer. They both were among the brightest standouts in their respective senior all-star games in early February. Gore Jr. received Offensive MVP honors at the East-West Shrine game after racking up 87 rushing yards on six carries including a 49-yard touchdown. Bailey showcased his dynamic dual-threat capability at the Reese’s Senior Bowl a few days later by compiling 87 scrimmage yards that included 53 rushing on 10 carries and 34 receiving on four catches.

It’s too early to tell who this year’s Mitchell might be but one additional name to keep an eye on if he falls through the cracks and becomes an undrafted free agent or late-round pick is Missouri’s Cody Schrader. He didn’t dominate at the Combine but is a former walk-on who worked his way up the Tigers’ depth chart and was the leading rusher in the SEC last year with a career-high 1,627 yards and tied for the second-most touchdowns with 14.

Two years ago, the Ravens used a sixth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to take on another former Missouri Tiger in Tyler Badie who also led the nation’s top conference in rushing yards in his final collegiate season. While he wasn’t able to make the team as a rookie, that was due in large part to the team’s 11-man draft class that year whereas Schrader would stand a much better chance of competing for a roster spot and perhaps even a role as soon as his first season.