Welcome to Statistical Storylines, a new column on Baltimore Beatdown with a weekly statistical breakdown of the Ravens’ last matchup, using advanced metrics to tell the story of the game.
There’s only one number that truly matters at the end of a football game: the final score. But advancements in player tracking and the creative work of the NFL’s growing analytics wing has given fans a whole new way to understand how and why their team won (or lost).
Here are the key advanced metrics from the Baltimore Ravens’ 41-38 victory over the Washington Commanders.
24.6% base personnel
The Ravens deployed 12, 22, or 21 personnel on 75.4% of their offensive plays in Week 6, giving Patrick Ricard a 51% snap share to force the Commanders out of their nickel defense. It worked: Washington played base personnel on 24.6% of their snaps, compared to just a 1% base personnel rate in the first five weeks of the year, per Dan Pizzuta of The 33rd Team. The Ravens gashed lighter personnel with the run and then opened up their play action passing game as soon as the Commanders put another linebacker on the field. Their 43.8% play action rate (via NextGen Stats) leading to season-highs in receiving yards for Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman.
0.5 yards of separation
Brandon Stephens was as sticky as ever against Terry McLaurin in Week 6, forcing a tight window throw on all four targets, per NextGen Stats. Stephens limited McLaurin to an average of 0.5 yards of separation, but the veteran wideout made three tough catches for 28 yards and a touchdown. Stephens once again struggled to get his head around and locate the ball at the catch point, but his mirroring skills are among the best in the league. His 50.0% tight window rate when targeted leads all NFL cornerbacks with at least 30 targets, and no other corner is above 40%.
+72 receiving yards over expected
Zay Flowers exploded for a career-high 132 receiving yards, catching all nine of his targets as a focal point in the Ravens’ passing attack. He generated +41 yards after catch over expected, another career-high, leading to a +72 receiving yards over expected that’s the fourth-highest of any wideout in a single game this year, according to NextGen Stats. He tore apart man coverage for 76 yards on seven catches, with particular success on in-breaking routes with 73 receptions on five catches, both career-highs. Flowers is rapidly developing into an alpha receiver in the Ravens offense, racking up yards on designed touches and downfield passes alike. Don’t look now: Baltimore might finally have a WR1.
37.5% pass rush win rate
Yannick Ngakoue registered three pressures across his eight pass-rushing snaps, per Pro Football Focus, earning him a promotion to the active roster on Monday night. Ngakoue has impressed in a limited role and will figure into the rotation for the rest of the season. While his first stint in Baltimore did not go as planned, Ngakoue is a better fit for Zach Orr’s defense as a designated pass-rusher. This time around, he will have the added benefit of playing under outside linebackers coach Chuck Smith, who has brought the most out of Kyle Van Noy since he signed with the Ravens. Edge rusher will be a frequently-mentioned position as the trade deadline approaches, but Ngakoue could quiet those talks a few more solid performances.
40.6% blitz rate
The Commanders blitzed Lamar Jackson at a 40.6% clip, his second-highest of the year after Cincinnati recorded a 42.6% blitz rate in Week 5. Maybe Washington didn’t catch that game, as Jackson tore apart the Bengals’ blitzes and then did the same to the Commanders. Jackson is up to 0.27 EPA/play against the blitz, per ESPN’s Mina Kimes, and it’s not just because he can use his legs to evade pressure. He still does, but his pre-snap awareness and leadership at the line of scrimmage is letting him beat the blitz before the play even starts. Jackson identifies – and in some cases manufactures – favorable matchups for his pass-catchers and trusts them to make a play. That’s just good quarterbacking. Credit to the offensive line (and Justice Hill), too, for continuously picking up the Commanders’ blitzes and giving Jackson enough time to throw.
8 pressures, 4 stops
That’s the combined production of Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones, who both played more than 70% of the Ravens’ defensive snaps. Their eight pressures and four stops (via PFF) is indicative of their control of the trenches vs. the Commanders, shutting down their second-ranked rushing attack and containing Jayden Daniels’ scrambles. Baltimore has always had a reputation for developing defensive linemen, but Madubuike and Jones could be one of their best duos yet. They are strong and explosive while staying disciplined and technically-sound – and their combined age is 51.
82.4% of receptions for a first down or touchdown
In Week 6, Rashod Bateman converted all four of his receptions into first downs, a common theme for him this season. In fact, 82.4% of his receptions have gone for a first down or a touch down this year, per Yahoo Sports’ Matt Harmon. That’s a sterling example of his improved chemistry with Lamar Jackson, as Bateman has been a quarterback-friendly receiver with an uncanny ability to get open past the sticks. The Ravens offense may not support much more volume for Bateman, but he’s a trusted and efficient receiver who can make a play when called upon.