Approaching the next 4 months of transition
After Washington’s loss to the Bears, I called for Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio’s firing. I may have been a tad rash, and gotten the operations slightly out of order. First, Josh Harris should bring in a conservator General Manager – likely someone brought back out of retirement, on a short term basis – and then have that person immediately fire Rivera and Del Rio.
But, that can’t be where it ends, and this process is admittedly more complicated than that, which is why I’ve enlisted the services of my colleague LASkin – with whom I’m almost completely ideologically aligned on this topic – to help flesh out Washington’s ideal management roadmap between mid-October 2023 and the beginning of the 2024 offseason.
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Step 1: Hire a Conservator General Manager: Mid-October
As mentioned above, the first management move should be to bring in a conservator GM – someone to orchestrate the rest of this process over the course of the next several months, but who is not expected to be the permanent GM brought in at the end of this season. In our mind, we see the ideal person as someone who is relatively recently retired but respected, who has General Manager experience in the NFL, and who Josh Harris trusts.
Why hire an interim GM now, and not after the end of the season? There are three primary reasons.
- First, to be blunt, this season is almost certainly lost, whether fans, coaches, and owners want to believe that or not. Therefore, there is little to gain by maintaining the current regime. The best we could hope for is the traditional Rivera rally toward mediocrity by season’s end. Maintaining the coaching staff just delays the inevitable, whether out of hope of the turnaround that is almost certainly not coming or out of a misplaced desire to be decent to the current coaches.
- Second, and most importantly, many decisions need to be made NOW, especially decisions around the roster. The current regime is not going to make the needed personnel moves because making them would eliminate the vain hope of a turnaround this year. Rivera’s de facto role as General Manager makes it too awkward to bring in an interim GM while leaving him neutered and in the coaching role only. More about this below.
- Third, we would like to see Eric Bieniemy get a shot at the Head Coach’s job on an interim basis. He might or might not be the right man for the job long-term. However, the only way to find out what he’s got is to give him a shot. Giving him the shot for the rest of the season is a risk-free trial. Obviously, Ron Rivera is not going to step aside for that to happen.
Who might be the caretaker GM? One name comes very quickly to mind: Kevin Colbert. He is the two-time Super Bowl winning former GM of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who retired from that role last year. Colbert is 66, and likely at the point in his career where he’s not interested in taking on that sort of role again on a long-term basis. He continues to provide some consultation to the Steelers, so he still has his head in the game.
Savvy fans will recall that, before he bought the Commanders, Josh Harris was actually a minority owner of the Steelers, so surely he has an existing relationship with Colbert that would – at a minimum – create an avenue for him to easily reach out for the former GM’s services.
Another option is former Chiefs/Browns GM, John Dorsey (63), who is now an executive with the Lions, and who served as a consultant for the Eagles in 2020. We do not know whether Dorsey would be the right candidate for a long-term position as GM in Washington, but he is young enough to be considered for the role.
Step 2: Fire Failed Coaches – Mid-October
Once the interim GM has been hired, his first assignment is to deliver the news to Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio that their services are no longer necessary. The failure of Rivera and Del Rio is obvious and there is no need to lay out the shortcomings of Rivera and Del Rio here once again. The only question for the overwhelming majority on Hogs Haven is whether to fire them now or simply not renew their contracts after the season.
We cannot imagine this team, with its current coaches, becoming a serious playoff contender this year. Rivera’s history is that he is able to get the team to play near the .500 mark by the end of the year, but not to get over the hump. This is Rivera’s team; he drafted or signed nearly all of the starters on both sides of the ball. It does not matter how much of the problems have been personnel, coaching, or ownership. Whatever the mix of reasons, the current regime has failed and it’s time to start a new direction, rather than wasting another season while wondering what could have been.
It’s frankly difficult to remember a time when a defensive coordinator has done less with more than Jack Del Rio has this year, and it’s time to replace him. The team simply has not performed, surrendering 33 points a game. It cannot stop the run or the pass. The team has won close games against two poor teams and lost the next three straight games, surrendering over 30 points in each. The defense was destroyed by Chicago, arguably the worst team in the NFL. The defense was expected to carry the team while the offense, with a young QB and an overhauled offensive line, was thought to be below average at best and bottom of the league at worst by most outside observers.
At the moment, the team is tied for 12th in the NFL in scoring, far above projections and the defense has been one of the worst in the league. The defense has been a disaster. We think it makes sense to look for a conservator as DC. That person can hit the ground running and can provide some credibility and stability, but probably would not need to be the long-term answer as DC. The new permanent head coach and GM can take their time to find the right long-term solution in the offseason, including looking at assistant coaches who are currently employed elsewhere.
Based on the severe underperformance of the entire defense in 2023, we do not see a candidate for promotion currently in the building. There are several potential candidates for the interim DC role. One possibility is Dean Pees, who retired at age 73 as Atlanta’s DC earlier this year. He previously served as the DC for the last Ravens team to win a Super Bowl, and served as DC with the Titans after that. Wade Phillips is another option.
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Step 3: Name an Interim Head Coach
Immediately after firing the old regime, Eric Bieniemy would be elevated to interim head coach. We think Bieniemy has earned the opportunity to become the interim HC. It is not an exaggeration to say that EB is the only coach on the Washington staff that has exceeded expectations. With a QB who had played one game before this year and patchwork offensive line, Bieniemy’s offense has given the team a chance to win some games and a chance to come back in others. He also is the lone coach who appears to be able to make changes in his scheme that have a positive effect, as he did after the Buffalo game. The offense is far more exciting and effective than the Scot Turner version of earlier Rivera seasons.
We are intrigued by Bieniemy and we think he might have what it takes to be a successful head coach in the NFL. However, lack of experience works against him, as it has every time he has been considered for a top job. The new permanent GM might be reluctant to hire Bieniemy as the permanent head coach unless he has seen some direct evidence that EB can do the job. Giving him about half the season in the interim role changes the equation.
We would expect Bieniemy to remain as the play caller this year. Many of the top head coaches in the league call most or all offensive plays, including Andy Reid, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan. However, Bieniemy needs to have an OC who can help with detailed game planning and preparation, as other HCs in such a situation do. We suspect Bieniemy has his own short list of candidates, and there are a number of experienced NFL OCs now on the streets who could play the role. Our view is that none of the offensive assistant coaches have done well enough this year to merit a promotion to OC.
This approach gives the ownership group and permanent GM candidates an opportunity to see if Eric Bieniemy has the chops to be a head coach in the NFL. We believe that it would be exactly the wrong thing to do to force a new permanent GM to accept a head coach who was hired first. Giving EB half a season in the job gives everyone involved the opportunity to see if he has the stuff to succeed. That does not necessarily mean making the playoffs. It means that the players play hard and smart and that the team is moving toward playing winning football.
There are pros and cons to hiring an interim GM and revamping the coaching staff for the rest of the season.
Pro: The conservator GM becomes Harris’ eyes and ears within the organization, doing a deeper dive into what works and what doesn’t, under the current arrangement. The conservator GM also becomes one of the most important interviewers on the panel that will eventually select the permanent GM.
Pro: The team will likely perform better. The data is not dramatic, but it does consistently – and perhaps surprisingly – show that as a rule, firing your head coach mid-season generally results in a better record with the new head coach. From 538:
Winning percentage, average total efficiency, per-game scoring and yardage margins, and turnover and time-of-possession margins were all stronger under the interim coaches than the former skippers.
Con: Six or seven games into the season is generally when Ron and JDR’s defenses get their act together. We may be missing out on a possible re-bound, as injury, or eventual “lessons learned” result in player substitutions that improve the roster.
Next Up: Before the Trade Deadline, and Beyond