Approaching the next 4 months of transition
Part 1 of this series can be found here.
At the beginning of 2020, when Ron Rivera was originally hired, going with the “coach-centric” approach was the best of a bad series of options. The impetuous Dan Snyder had a storied history of hiring “yes men” general managers and then enlisting them to strong arm his head coaches into a series of terrible decisions. The reality was that an inexperienced coach, brought into work under a new GM, was going to be manipulated and hamstrung by Snyder like nearly all Washington’s prior coaches had been. Only a widely-respected veteran coach, who could plausibly demand “full football control” was going to have any chance at success. At the time, Rivera fit that bill, and was able to extract that arrangement, but as we’ve seen over the past four years, even that wasn’t really enough.
In retrospect, it turns out my expectation that it had to be that way in order to have a chance at success was probably overly optimistic. It was only as a result of Russell Wilson’s personal preferences that Ron and his lieutenants avoided absolute disaster. There probably simply was no way to succeed under Snyder. The best hope that the future not be sacrificed. And that future is now.
In functional organizations, the owner hires a general manager, that general manager hires a head coach, and the head coach hires his staff. This structure creates several layers of perspective and an accountability framework that allows the organization to be successful.
The buck always stops with the owner. It’s his business after all, but the very best owners in the NFL over the course of the last decade or two (Bisciotti, Allen, Lurie) have tended to be collaborative and consultative, and absolutely not heavy-handed, serving as sounding boards and advisors for executive level staff.
Once the owner settles on his General Manager – his “football guy” – that individual, ideally, serves as the strategic thinker for constructing a durable, successful organization. The role of the general manager is to take the long view – while his coach is focused on winning week-to-week, and keeping his job from season-to-season. Functioning properly, that longer range focus should halt the organization from doing anything too rash in the pursuit of “winning now” that might seriously jeopardize success later. He may be a former scout, or a former agent, or a former executive with lower level management experience. In any case, he will need to surround himself with talented people who know more – at least in certain domains – than he does.
Step 4: Personnel Moves for the Future – October 15 – 31
The NFL’s trade deadline is October 31st at 4pm this year. As of publication, that gives Washington around three weeks to figure out which players should be kept around for the next regime, versus which ones should be parlayed for draft capital for that group to build with. Although almost no player should be untradeable in the NFL, we do not propose shopping everyone on the roster. Rather, we are concerned with the many players on expiring contracts who will become free agents after the season, especially those that the team probably cannot re-sign or will not want to re-sign. Some of them should be traded to obtain value before they depart.
The need to address the trade deadline is the most compelling reason to hire an interim GM without delay. Rivera and company are not going to collect draft capital for a future head coach to use. They have every incentive to win as many games as they can this year, and not to give up on the season now. They want to go out on a positive note. They probably hope that they can still save their jobs with a rally to make the playoffs. It’s time to take the roster decisions out of their hands.
If you think this is a playoff team, you will not want to trade players who will be free agents after the season. If you want to maintain the status quo, you will want to keep the roster as strong as possible for the remainder of the season. If you do not want to replace the front office decision makers and you want to keep Rivera and his staff intact this year, you will not agree with our thoughts on shopping players for draft picks. Everyone else should consider this to be an important issue.
Why Trade Players in Mid-Season?
We think that the Commanders are likely to lose several free agents in the offseason despite the team’s best efforts, and it’s time to consider trading some or all of them for draft capital. If they walk, it’s possible that Washington will receive nothing for them; if there is compensation, it will be in the form of compensatory draft picks in 2025.
It’s worth recounting how the compensatory draft system works. The league office allocates compensatory picks based on how many players teams lose and their value (with value determined by new contract terms) compared to how many players they sign and the value of those signings (again, determined by contract terms). The highest compensation that a team can receive is a late third round pick for a given player. The total number of compensatory picks and their relative value is determined by the league office based on the total number of signings in the league. Note that the compensatory picks are awarded the year after the player signs a new contract elsewhere.
If Washington signs veteran players to fill roster holes in the offseason, that may eliminate or seriously reduce the value of its compensatory picks by cancelling them out. Washington will have some holes to fill in free agency in the offseason, and top players at positions of need will not be cheap. Quality offensive linemen in particular are expensive to sign, but the team may also be in the market for TEs, LBs, DBs, and a backup QB.
In short, Washington may end up receiving no compensation at all for its free agents, and if there are comp picks, they will not be received until 2025. Conversely, if the team trades players now, those deals are guaranteed and the draft picks are likely to be for 2024. That is a compelling rationale for shopping pending free agents now.
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images
What Looming Free Agents Might Washington Trade?
Here’s a list of Washington top free agents after the 2023 season and their current average annual salary:
- Curtis Samuel ($11.5M)
- Kendall Fuller ($10M)
- Chase Young ($8.6M)
- Jacoby Brissett ($8M)
- Cody Barton ($3.5M)
- Antonio Gibson ($3M)
- Montez Sweat ($2.9M)
- Kam Curl ($850k)
Let’s go through each of the above in turn. It’s very difficult to assess trade value in the abstract, and the only way to know what each is worth is to receive offers. We are in favor of shopping all of these players, but are in favor of selling only when the offers are fair to Washington.
Curtis Samuel – Through five games, Samuel has arguably been Washington’s most productive receiver. While it was unfortunate he missed most of his first year on the team with a groin injury, he’s been very solid in the two seasons since. Moving Samuel at this point would take away one of Howell’s best weapons, and our guess is that he would be unlikely to return much in trade – perhaps a 5th rounder. Most likely, he stays.
Kendall Fuller – Unbelievably, there was a vocal contingent of fans who wanted to move Fuller this offseason. Like last year, he remains the best CB on the roster. Rather than be looking to trade Fuller, We’d probably work to extend the 28 year old on a reasonable two-year deal.
Chase Young – By some accounts, Young is playing quite well this year, despite the defense as a whole playing abominably. That’s a positive for his trade value. This offseason, it looked like he probably couldn’t return a Day 3 pick. Now, before the trade deadline, we think he could fetch a second or third rounder – and perhaps much more. Test the market on Young, who would be unlikely to get another contract here, and see what he might bring to a team in the playoff race.
Jacoby Brissett – At this point in the season, several teams have already lost their play caller for the year. There’s chaos at the position in New England. Why not give Bill Belichick – who knows Jacoby as well as anyone – a call and see if he’d be willing to part with a second rounder to try to salvage his legacy? We like Brissett and are happy to have him as a backup, but if Howell goes down at some point, he will not salvage the season. Jake Fromm would give this team a better projection in 2024. Add a Day 2 pick to that situation, and the new GM starts with a feathered nest.
Cody Barton – Some GM who eyed him in the offseason might think he is playing in the wrong system and might be willing to offer something for him. That could be a player off their roster or a low pick. Even a 7th rounder would seem like a good return and worth looking for.
Montez Sweat – Sweat still doesn’t get the attention that Young does, but he’s reliably solid game after game, picking up double teams at double the clip of Chase. Will the new GM want three massively paid vets on the DL? That’s for him to decide, but for now, I think he should be kept around.
LASkin: I would move him for the same reason he would trade Young if the price is right: he’s unlikely to be re-signed, so the team should get something for him while they can. It may be possible to get a 2nd or 3rd rounder for him, perhaps more. One advantage to putting him on the trade market is that he would fit both a 4-3 scheme and a 3-4 scheme, because he has good speed and could be a good outside LB who occasionally drops into coverage – just as he does in Washington.
Kam Curl – This is one where we disagree a bit:
KS4GM: It’s been my belief since he was drafted that Quan Martin was taken to be groomed as a replacement for Kam Curl. Martin hasn’t shown much of anything lately, but with Darrick Forrest going down, he has at least four weeks to audition. If he plays well, the team should seek offers for Curl before the trade deadline.
LASkin: I love me some Curl and I think he is the secret weapon (to the rest of the league) of the defense and he is as important as Jonathan Allen to the defense and the scheme. I want to sign him long-term, especially if there is some money available from trading Young and/or Sweat. But I would trade just about any player if offered enough for him. What would I demand for Curl? Probably a 2nd rounder. You say nobody else would offer that? Good, we’ll discuss that in contract negotiations with his agent.
Antonio Gibson – Running backs are devalued in this league. It may not be expensive to resign Gibson. We like Gibson’s explosiveness and receiving ability. That said, he could be replaced if a contender needed a third down RB was willing to overpay for services. That might be a 5th or 6th rounder.
What Does All This Mean for the Future?
The draft is the mother’s milk of team development in the NFL. There is a lot of uncertainty in draft picks, and even first rounders often disappoint, but the draft is by far the best way to obtain good talent at a relatively cheap price. The draft is often compared to a lottery. The more lottery tickets you own, the better your chances of hitting the jackpot. This team is going to need as many lottery tickets as it can get.
Shopping free agents to teams in need before the deadline can be an excellent way to stockpile draft picks. There is no way in advance to know what Washington could fetch for its players in terms of draft picks and in their rounds. But we think it is possible that Washington might double its draft selections in 2024 if the team is lucky, and that is a lot of lottery tickets.
For a team that needs to rebuild, this sale of talent might shorten the timeline for a rebuild by a year or more. We know that will not happen without a regime change. Making it happen is the most compelling reason for a regime change now.
Next Up: Considering Potential, Permanent, Replacements