The Washington Commanders have lost five of their last six games and now face an uncertain future. For a team with a new ownership group, new starting quarterback, and new offensive coordinator, fans expected growing pains. However, ugly losses to the Bears and Giants have unearthed some deep-rooted issues that might be here to stay. The first eight games were the easy stretch of the schedule; things will only get more challenging from here. With another loss to Philadelphia and two major trade deadline splashes, the organization’s mindset has begun to shift toward the future.
Uncertain Future Ahead for Commanders
Contract Uncertainty
The Commanders face considerable uncertainty with regard to the futures of several significant contributors. At Tuesday’s trade deadline, Washington decision-makers provided a glimpse into the organization’s plans. Josh Harris and Ron Rivera shipped former first-round defensive end Montez Sweat to Chicago in exchange for their (likely high) second-round pick in 2024. A potential top 35-pick is an excellent return for an expiring contract, especially if Sweat indicated that he didn’t intend to re-sign with the team.
In a jarring second act, the Commanders traded former number 2 overall pick Chase Young to San Fransisco for a third-round pick. This move gives Washington nine total selections in the 2024 NFL Draft. After spending more money on the interior defensive line than any other team in the league, it became necessary to take the roster in a different direction. Washington can no longer afford to allocate so much draft capital and salary cap space to one position group moving forward. The defensive line’s production has not translated to winning football games.
With the deadline in the rearview mirror now, the focus shifts to other notable free agents in line for new contracts. This list includes Kamren Curl, Curtis Samuel, Kendall Fuller, Antonio Gibson, Casey Toohill, and James Smith-Williams, among others. Despite possessing the third-most cap space in the NFL this offseason ($79,507,768), there is no guarantee that the team will re-sign any of these players. 24-year-old Curl is the most likely priority, but securing Toohill and Smith-Williams will be important to fill the shoes of Sweat and Young.
Quarterback Uncertainty
After eight games, Sam Howell is beginning to build a sample size against NFL competition. On one hand, Howell has shown flashes of a playmaker who can make all the throws. He ranks fifth in the league in passing yards (2,146), 6th in passing touchdowns (13), 16th in passer rating (90.1), and 15th in completion percentage (66.9%). He’s also one of seven quarterbacks who have led at least two game-winning drives this season. Those are solid if not excellent, marks for a 23-year-old with nine total games of NFL experience.
On the other hand, Howell also leads the league in sacks taken (41) and is on pace to shatter the all-time record for sacks in a season. This was a problem in college, as well, and cannot be brushed off as simply an offensive line issue. He’s also thrown an interception in five of eight games. The line must improve drastically, but Howell will need to find his own ways to prevent negative plays. Against the Eagles in Week 8, however, Howell only allowed one sack all game.
Sam Howell has done enough to earn the starting job for at least the remainder of the season. Given his level of experience, the franchise should evaluate him as a rookie. Any team would be thrilled for their rookie quarterback to be playing as well as Howell has thus far. Washington is unlikely to hold a high enough first-round draft pick to select one of the elite quarterbacks in the 2024 rookie class, and the team has plenty of other weaknesses to address first. Develop the bird in the hand, and surround him with the support he needs.
Organizational Uncertainty
The Commanders endured an arduous offseason of organizational turnover last year and could be headed for another one. The new ownership group has been a significant bright spot to this point, and new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy has brought a different approach than his predecessor, Scott Turner. Beyond the sack issue, Washington’s primary issues haven’t come on offense.
Unfortunately, despite the wealth of talent, the defense has drastically underperformed expectations this season. It’s hard to imagine defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio on the staff for the rest of this season, much less next season. The Commanders defense has allowed the second-most total yards in the NFL (2.993), the eighth-most 1st downs (95), and the second-highest percentage of drives ending in a score (46.1%). Expect a major personnel change on defense sooner rather than later.
Ron Rivera is unlikely to be part of the team’s long-term plans, either. Rivera boasts a 25-32 record through 3,5 seasons in Washington and has not produced a single winning season. He’s frequently appeared lost in crucial game situations, which is not a novel development. The new ownership group will likely prefer to kickstart an impending rebuild with their own hire. Josh Harris could opt to promote Bienemy, look outside the organization entirely, or both. The Commanders face an uncertain future, but one thing is very certain: Washington will have a new head coach in 2024.
Main Photo: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
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