Should the Washington Commanders extend Brian Robinson right now? Here are some comparables.
The Washington Commanders were one of the pleasant surprises of the 2024 season, reaching the NFC Championship Game in quarterback Jayden Daniels’s rookie season.
Under offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, the Commanders were one of the best offenses in the league last season, mixing in a strong aerial attack with an improved run game.
Brian Robinson Jr. was the leader of the ground attack, posting 799 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on 4.3 yards per carry. He also cut his fumbles in half, while posting career highs across the board.
Robinson Jr. has been inconsistent throughout his career, as he’s not much of a receiving threat and has dealt with nagging injuries. But, he also hasn’t worked behind the best offensive line in Washington.
A third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Robinson is now entering the final year of his rookie deal, and he’s looking to have a big year.
“I need to take my level of focus up a notch or two,” Robinson Jr. said earlier this offseason. “Definitely, it’s a big year not only for me but for a lot of guys around here too. Definitely want to stay focused and get ready for a long season ahead of us. Step by step, just attack the process and be ready for everything that comes.”
While an extension doesn’t seem to be coming before the season, what could a possible deal look like with a good 2025 campaign next offseason?
Baseline numbers for a Brian Robinson contract extension
The running back market has become tough for players like Robinson, who didn’t produce at the highest levels on their rookie deals.
But, if Robinson has a quality 2025 season as Washington’s lead back, a potential comparison could be the four-year, $36 million deal that Rhamondre Stevenson got from the New England Patriots last offseason.
At the time, Stevenson was coming off a 619-yard season marred by injuries. He did have a 1,000-yard season on his resume, but he has also dealt with injuries and fumble issues in the past.
D’Andre Swift could be another solid comparison. He signed a three-year, $24 million deal with the Chicago Bears last offseason, cashing in on a 1,049-yard campaign with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023. Prior to that, however, Swift had only put up 521, 617, and 542 yards over his first three years in the NFL.
A realistic deal could be one similar to Devin Singletary’s three-year, $16.5 million deal with the New York Giants last offseason. Singletary had five seasons, ranging from 680 to 900 yards to kick off his NFL career, finishing with a 898-yard campaign with the Houston Texans in 2023 before signing with the Giants.
Robinson will be entering his age-27 season in 2026, which will likely play a factor in how long his next deal will be. For reference, Singletary was also entering his age-27 season when signing his contract. Additionally, Stevenson was going into his age-26 season, while Swift was entering his age-25 campaign.
Projecting a Brian Robinson contract
Given his age and current production, a two- to three-year deal for Robinson would make sense, depending on who the top backs on the open market will be next offseason.
With the salary cap increasing, Robinson should top Singletary’s $5.5 million-per-year salary, although I’m not sure he reaches the $8-9 million range like Swift and Stevenson.
Guaranteed money will also play a factor. I could see Robinson getting his first year’s salary, a signing bonus, and a portion of his Year 2 salary guaranteed at signing. But, two years fully guaranteed doesn’t seem reasonable.
Projection: 3 years, $21 million, $10.5 million in total guarantees