What games matter for Washington’s NFC playoff hopes?
Here’s a fact you might find interesting: this week, while the 8-5 Commanders are on their bye, no other team — by winning or losing — can move Washington out of the #7 NFC playoff seeding that they currently occupy. Washington will enter Week 15 still in position for the 7th seed no matter what happens in the 13 NFL games being played this week. Nevertheless, on the off chance that Washington doesn’t go undefeated in December and January, Commanders fans should have interest in the outcomes of several games that involve NFC teams this week.
Who’s ahead of the Commanders in NFC playoff seeding?
- #4 – Falcons 6-6 (division leader)
- #5 – Vikings 10-2 (wild card)
- #6 – Packers 9-3 (wild card)
Who’s behind them?
- Buccaneers 6-6
- Cardinals 6-6
- Rams 6-6
- 49ers 5-7
- Cowboys 5-7
Who should we be rooting for in Week 14?
Washington will play 4 teams to close the season: Saints, Eagles, Falcons, Cowboys. You’ll notice that two of those teams — Atlanta and Dallas — are on Washington’s remaining schedule, which gives the Commanders a degree of control over their ability to qualify for the playoffs this season.
However, this week, while the Commanders are resting and refreshing, there are key games involving every one of these teams (Washington is the only NFC team on bye this week; the other 5 teams on bye week are AFC teams).
Green Bay @ Detroit
We certainly want the Packers to lose. If Green Bay drops to 9-4, it increases the opportunity for Washington to move up to the #6 seed by the end of the season. In addition, we want Detroit to win and hold onto the #1 seed so that the Eagles can’t overtake them and earn a bye week. Go Lions!
Falcons @ Vikings
Minnesota would need to lose 4 or even 5 games in the final five weeks for Washington to move past them in the playoff seedings, which seems like a long shot.
Meanwhile, the AFC South is a bit of crapshoot. It seems like only one team — the division winner — should qualify for the playoffs, but Atlanta has already played (and beaten) the Buccaneers twice this season. When you look at the relatively light schedules that both of them face down the stretch, it’s not crazy to think that both the Falcons and Bucs could win 4 or 5 of their remaining games, finishing with 10 or 11 wins, giving on the division title and putting the other in the NFC wildcard race.
Washington has already lost to Tampa Bay, giving up the key head-to-head tie breaker, but the Commanders play the Falcons at Landover in Week 17, giving the burgundy & gold the opportunity both to hand the Falcons a loss, and to gain the head-to-head tie-breaker advantage. Still, it would be best if the Falcons were unable to stay ahead of the Buccaneers for the division title (because of the tie breaker implications) and if they were already a couple of games out of wildcard seeding by the time the Week 17 game against Washington is played.
While there is a scenario in which Washington hopes for the Vikings to crash and burn in the final 5 weeks (and if you believe they will, then you may want to root for Atlanta this week), the more likely path to playoff success, in my opinion, seems to me to lie with the Falcons, who are currently on a 3-game losing streak, losing as many games as possible in what remains of the regular season. While there may not be a bad outcome for Commanders fans in this game, I’m gonna say that we should be rooting for a Viking victory. Skol!
Saints @ Giants
The Saints are 4-8 and highly unlikely to be in a position to knock the Commanders out of the #7 seed — especially since Washington plays the Saints next week (Week 15) and has the opportunity to simply take care of business. It might seem natural to root for the Saints to beat our NFC East rival BUT…we don’t want the Giants (who have already been eliminated from the playoffs) to have a great 2025 draft pick, so I’m gonna say that Commanders fans should root for the Giants this week. A win will cost the Giants draft position and tend to break the will of the Saints ahead of our matchup in New Orleans next week. Commanders fans should be rooting for the Giants in Week 14
Raiders @ Buccaneers
In the “Pirate Bowl”, it seems easy enough to simply root for the AFC team since a loss makes it that much less likely that Tampa Bay can rally and pass the Commanders for a wildcard seeding — but remember that Washington lost to the Bucs in Week 1, so Tampa holds the first tie-breaker. A loss by Tampa here would drop the Bucs to 6-7, 2 games behind the Commanders, but holding the tie-break advantage, meaning that Washington would hold a practical lead of just one game.
The better outcome for the Commanders seems to be for the Bucs to win the NFC South since Washington still has the opportunity to beat the Falcons in Week 17. While a Buccaneers loss here seems like the intuitively best outcome, I’m thinking that a win that puts them into first place in the NFCS may be the strategically better outcome. If you don’t buy my reasoning, then back the AFC team to win, but my reasoning leads me to think a Tampa Bay win helps advance Washington’s playoff hopes by putting the Bucs in the division lead and taking them out of competition with the Commanders for a wildcard seeding.
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Seattle has a 1-game lead on the Cardinals and Rams in the NFC West, and it seems as though anyone can still win that division. That makes it a bit harder to decide who to back in this game.
- Seattle’s next three games are against Arizona, Green Bay and Minnesota.
- The Cardinals play Seattle, New England and Carolina.
- The Rams will end the season playing Arizona and Seattle, guaranteeing two losses (and two wins) to be apportioned to these three teams to end the season. In the meantime, the Rams play the Bills, Niners and Jets.
If the Seahawks can beat the Packers and/or Vikings, that directly benefits Washington in the wildcard hunt, but there’s a good chance they lose one or both of those games. The Cardinals, however, will probably be favored against both the Patriots and Panthers.
Given the likely outcomes in Weeks 15 & 16, it seems most prudent to root for a Seattle win and an Arizona loss this week. Worst case, it helps cement the Seahawks at the top of their division while expanding Washington’s lead on the Cardinals. Remember that Washington beat Arizona in Week 4, so the Commanders have got the head-to-head tie-breaker, giving Washington extra breathing room in NFC wildcard seedings. Washington didn’t play Seattle this season, though, and so doesn’t enjoy the same advantage in wild card seedings, meaning it’s more advantageous for Washington if Seattle wins the division instead of being in the wild card race. Root for Seattle
Bills @ Rams
This is easy — take the AFC team over the NFC team that is in the wildcard hunt. A loss would drop the Rams to 6-7, putting them 2 games behind the Commanders in the wildcard race. LA plays 3 division games in the final 4 weeks, and we know how unpredictable they can be, so we want some insurance this week with the Bills taking care of business on the west coast. We are honorary members of the Bills Mafia this week
Bengals @ Cowboys (MNF)
This isn’t hard at all. We want the AFC team to beat our NFC East rivals, partly just for fun, but also to kill any thoughts the Cowboys might have of running the table and getting into the playoffs. Of course, the Commanders close the season at Dallas and have the opportunity to take care of business themselves in Week 18, but I’d prefer that the Cowboys be discouraged, in disarray, and thinking about the offseason by the time of that final regular season meeting. Who dey?!