Survey results!!
In this week’s Reacts survey, we covered three questions.
The first question was our regular weekly inquiry asking whether Hogs Haven readers are confident in the direction of the team. For the third time in four weeks, the number of ‘yes’ responses was above 90%, reaching the high point of the season this week following Washington’s defeat of the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football, with 98% of respondents expressing confidence in the direction of the team right now.
Things are rather different for fans of our division rivals.
Following the Cowboys’ loss to the Ravens, confidence of Dallas fans fell from 14% in Week 3 to just 5% this week. Look for a bounce-back next week in the wake of the ‘Boys Week 4 win against the Giants on Thursday Night Football.
Speaking of those NY fans, after their fan confidence hit its nadir at 22% in Week 2, it rose in back-to-back weeks, reaching 61% this week following the Giants’ unexpected victory over the Browns in Week 3. Look for that confidence to erode next week following New York’s 2nd division loss — at home to Dallas — on TNF.
The confidence of Eagles fans was the lowest in the division a week ago, sitting at 13%. That figure rebounded this week to 55% in the wake of Philly’s road win against the Saints that allowed them to keep pace with the division-leading Commanders at 2-1 overall.
With the Cowboys-Giants game already in the books, the Commanders and Eagles will both face tough games this week as each team tries to take sole possession of first-place in the NFC East. The Commanders, of course, are in Arizona to take on the Cardinals, while the Eagles travel to what are currently hurricane conditions in Florida to play Tampa Bay at 1 pm.
The reason for Washington fans’ high level of confidence is clear. For the first time in a very long time, fans of the burgundy & gold have reason to feel that the quarterback conundrum has been solved. In just his 3rd NFL regular season game, in front of a worldwide audience on Monday Night Football, Jayden Daniels performed like a seasoned veteran as he led the team on six consecutive scoring drives — including 5 touchdowns — just a week after leading the team on seven consecutive scoring drives against the NY Giants.
It will surprise absolutely nobody, then, to learn that, when we asked what fans felt best about following the MNF game, the overwhelming answer was: Jayden Daniels’ performance/development.
Any Washington fan who has read, watched or listened to the post-game coverage of the win over the Bengals will be aware of the incredible offensive performance that Daniels put on, which included setting a number of franchise and NFL records while achieving a number of ‘firsts’ for rookie quarterbacks.
The Commanders have now played two complete NFL games in back-to-back weeks without punting the ball a single time. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has led 14 consecutive scoring drives (excluding end-of-half kneeldowns) dating back to the final offensive drive of the opening-week Tampa Bay game.
Unfortunately…
On Monday night, the other team wasn’t forced to punt either. And that brings us to the aspect of the team that survey respondents feel worst about this week: the defense.
Overwhelmingly, Hogs Haven readers identified the defense as the biggest worry, with 98% of fans looking at that side of the ball and wondering how it could just as bad as it was last season.
To put in perspective how bad the Commanders pass defense is so far this season, since 2018, the 2024 Commanders have the 4th worst EPA/dropback through the first three weeks of the season #RaiseHail
— Mason Kinnahan (@Mason_Kinnahan) September 27, 2024
By a ratio of roughly 3:1, fans identified the pass defense (or lack of it) as the most concerning. However, many of those who picked the run defense as their greatest area of concern indicated that they did so because, prior to the start of the season, they had confidence in the team’s stoutness against the run while harboring concerns about the secondary. For this reason, faced with evidence that the defense is unable to stop opponents from running or passing, the lack of run defense — given the supposed roster strength at DL and LB — is more concerning.
OC Kliff Kingsbury on Jayden Daniels not throwing an interception through three games:
“We’re not built right now to overcome a lot of turnovers”
Even Kliff Kingsbury knows the defense is terrible…#RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/UteDTA0VJR
— … (@CMNDERS) September 26, 2024
The Commanders rank 29th in total yards given up, 31st in passing yards surrendered, and 30th in points per game scored by opposing offenses. By contrast, their 18th ranked rushing defense appears to be a bright spot despite being in the lower half of the league.
Washington simply hasn’t been able to stop any of its offensive opponents.
- The Bengals scored 33 points in a losing effort, and would have scored more if their field goal kicker hadn’t missed. The Bengals put up an astonishing 436 total yards, with Joe Burrow throwing for 324 yds and 3 touchdowns.
- The Buccaneers had 392 yards of offense, with 289 passing yards and 4 passing touchdowns. They scored 37 points.
- The struggling Giants offense had over 300 yards and Daniel Jones threw a pair of touchdowns.
For all the excitement that Jayden Daniels has ignited among Washington fans and NFL fans in general, the Commanders faithful have to be distressed by what they’ve seen from the defense. Remember that the general strategy for teams with a rookie quarterback is to support the young player with a strong running game and a stout defense.
In Week 3 of Jayden Daniels’ rookie campaign, he put the team on his back and carried an inept defensive unit to victory. That’s not a sustainable model.
It is imperative that the team be capable of playing complementary football, with the defense pulling its weight.
The #Commanders haven’t turned the ball over yet this year, but they’ve recovered four fumbles of their own…
Can’t keep living that charmed life. It’s going to happen and it’s OK as long as it is not in bunches.
The key? Force more takeaways. They only have ONE in 3 games.
— Chris Russell AKA the ! (@Russellmania621) September 27, 2024
The next test for Dan Quinn’s team will come at 4:05 pm on Sunday, when the Commanders play their second road game in six days as they visit the 1-2 Arizona Cardinals, who are currently in a 3-way tie in the NFC West behind the undefeated Seattle Seahawks. The Cardinals are favored by 3.5 points and will be desperate for a win.
Looking at the entries for the Hogs Haven Pick’em contest, out of 60 entries, 70% are picking the Commanders to win outright. As an aside, 59% of entries in the contest predict that the Buccaneers will beat the Eagles outright on Sunday.
With Washington at +3.5 points, only about 11% of the 37 entries from Hogs Haven readers project the Cardinals to cover the spread, while 89% are backing the Commanders.
The over/under for points scored in the Washington-Arizona game currently stands at 49. With Washington’s first three games averaging a total of 55.7 points per game and the Cardinals games averaging 48.7, the over seems like a reasonable bet, especially with the evidence of Washington’s suddenly-potent offense paired with its apparently toothless defense.
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