Over 7 in 10 Hogs Haven readers expect the team to win at least 11 games
In this week’s Reacts survey, we asked Hogs Haven readers to predict Washington’s record for the upcoming 2025 season and to forecast the winner of the NFC East. The answers to both questions showed overwhelming belief in the home team.
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Ninety-seven percent of respondents predicted a winning record for the Commanders, with 82% expecting the team to produce at least 11 wins.
When it comes to the division championship, a majority of Hogs Haven readers believe that the two-decade long streak without a repeat champion in the NFC East will remain unbroken, with 56% saying that the Washington Commanders will hang another division banner at the end of the ‘25 season, while 41% expect a Philadelphia repeat.
The NFC East championship seems to be a two-horse race in the minds of the survey respondents, with only 3% predicting that the Cowboys or Giants would grab the division crown.
The comments under the survey article offered a broad range of opinions about the relative strengths of Washington and Philly, but one theme seemed to find its way into many of them — that Washington could play better football this year and still end up winning fewer games compared to a year ago.
One reason is that there is broad — but not universal — belief that the entire NFC East will be playing a tougher schedule in 2025. The most notable factor here is the inter-division matchups on tap.
Tougher inter-divisional matchups
Each season, all four teams in the NFC East have to play all four teams from one NFC division and one AFC division.
- In 2024, those two divisions were the NFC South and the AFC North.
- In 2025, those two divisions will be the AFC West and the NFC North.
Last season, the NFC South had a combined W-L record of 28-40 (.412) while the AFC North had a combined record of 34-34 (.500). The two divisions had an overall combined record of 62-74 (.456).
Next season’s opponents had the following results in 2024:
- AFC West 40-28 (.588)
- NFC North 45-23 (.662)
- Combined 85-51 (.625)
No two divisions in the NFL had more total wins than the AFC West and the NFC North in the 2024 regular season. Of course, the W-L records of individual teams vary quite a lot from season to season, but the difference between playing the NFCS/AFCN (.456 win %) in ‘24 and the AFCW/NFCN (.625 win %) in ‘25 seems pretty stark.
Other factors
Home & Away games
Another factor is the number of home games.
One inequity of the 17-game schedule is that half the teams in the NFL will play nine home games each season while the other half play only eight. The NFL partially resolved this dilemma by setting up a scheduling system where NFC teams all play at home 9 times in even years (2022, 2024, 2026) while AFC teams play 9 home games in odd years (2023, 2025, 2027).
In the season we just finished, Washington played at home 9 times, earning a 7-2 record (.777 win percentage). A little quick math tells us that the Commanders’ 5-3 record on the road (.625 win percentage) was good, but not nearly as good.
Playing one more road game/one less home game in 2025 will make it that much harder to repeat the 12-win season.
More travel
In 2024, no NFL team had fewer miles to travel than the Washington Commanders. The team further minimized the travel issues by going directly from Cincinnati to Arizona on a short week without returning to Washington DC.
In 2025, even without factoring in the Madrid game, the Commanders will travel about 50% more miles for non-divisional road games than they did in 2024, and they will change time zones 4 times. The only time they had to deal with time zone changes for non-divisional games in 2024 was the combined 2-game road trip to Cincinnati and Phoenix. When you factor in the Week 11 trip to Spain followed by another late-season bye (in Week 12) the demands of travel in 2025 skyrocket.
Copious optimism
Adam Peters has obviously done a lot of work this offseason to make the roster even more competitive than it was last season when the Commanders won 12 games and reached the NFC Championship game.
Offense
The offensive line has been bolstered by the addition of LT Laremy Tunsil and the addition of 1st-round draft pick Josh Conerly Jr. With these two expected to hold down the two tackle spots, last year’s starting LT, Brandon Coleman is moving to left guard, which should provide an upgrade at three of the five OL positions.
The trade for Deebo Samuel should be good for both player and team as Samuel is paired with an offensive coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury that seems to be an ideal match. Two other drafted rookies — wide receiver Jaylin Lane and RB Bill Croskey-Merritt — both seem to have under-the-radar potential to add speed and explosiveness to the offense, though Lane’s primary contribution in his rookie season is expected to be as a punt returner.
Defense
The defensive line unit has been largely re-made, though not everyone is a believer in the new-look group that features Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw, Johnny Newton, Eddie Goldman, Dorance Armstrong, Clelin Ferrell, Deatrich Wise and Jalyn Holmes. The lack of a top-tier pass rusher has been an almost-constant topic of discussion this offseason, yet Dan Quinn, Joe Whitt and Adam Peters seem to be rock-solid in their belief that they have a winning strategy at the position group that revolves around being stouter against the run than they were a year ago.
While the linebacker group and safety group have seen little change outside of the departure of Jeremy Chinn and the signing of Will Harris, the cornerback group has seen dramatic change since this time last year.
This side-by-side comparison of the Week 1 CB rosters for 2024 and 2025 demonstrates how thoroughly the secondary has been upgraded.
This year’s group comprises four 2024 starters and a 2nd-round drafted rookie who has drawn significant praise from coaches and observers in all offseason activities to date.
Development of second-year players
One significant factor in roster development goes beyond departures, trades, signings and draft picks. Instead, the focus here is on returning players who should be more capable of contributing at a high level than they were a year ago. This group comprises players returning from injury and second-year players who may not have played a large role as rookies, among others.
Some of the players that fit neatly into this category are LB Jordan Magee, LB/S Dominique Hampton, DT Johnny Newton, TE Ben Sinnott, and WR Luke McCaffrey. All are talented players who seem to have a well of potential to be tapped more fully in ‘25.
We can add Jayden Daniels name to that list as well. Despite the great rookie season he had in 2024, Daniels has the opportunity to be better and accomplish more in 2025. One only needs to look back at the early games against the Buccaneers and Giants to open his rookie campaign to see the growth he experienced during the ‘24 season. He should get off to a faster start in his sophomore campaign with the entire coaching staff returning. Jayden enters 2025 with a full command of the offense and a year of NFL experience under his belt. While Dan Quinn was careful not to thrust his rookie QB into an uncomfortable leadership role last year, Jayden has now naturally grown into that role, and his progress has been discussed in detail by Kingsbury and Quinn in press conferences this offseason.
Bottom line
Commanders fans have a lot to be excited about, and excited they are!
In this week’s survey results, we can see clearly that the expectations for team are high, with 2024 having set a new standard for success in Washington.
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