The Commanders now have a clear path to the playoffs
A simple path
It’s very simple now; if the Commanders beat the Falcons in Week 17, they will lock in a playoff seeding.
The Contenders
Washington can still finish ahead of the Packers for the 6th seed, but that would require the Packers to lose one more game than the Commanders in the final three weeks. That doesn’t seem highly likely this week, so we’ll focus on the five teams that can displace Washington from the 7th seed.
Two of those teams — the eventual winners of the NFC South and West — will be seeded 3rd and 4th, so Washington really only needs to fend off the three non-division winners.
The key – beat Atlanta in Week 17
If Washington beats Atlanta in Week 17, then no team in the NFC can displace the Commanders as the 7th seed.
If the Commanders beat the Falcons, then Washington is guaranteed a 10-win season. No team with 8 losses can catch them. That eliminates six teams that have already lost 8 games. Of the 10 remaining, we won’t concern ourselves with any teams from the NFC North, who will likely fill 3 of the top 6 seeds, or the Eagles, who will probably finish no worse than the 2nd seed.
We will look only at five teams from the NFC West & South who pose threats to Washington’s playoff seeding.
Here’s the math, shown team by team:
(Remember that this assumes that Washington beats Atlanta in Wk 17, guaranteeing a 10-win season)
Falcons
The Falcons already have 7 losses. A loss to the Commanders would cap their possible win total at 9, meaning that the Falcons could not displace the Commanders from playoff seeding.
Buccaneers
If the Falcons have 8 losses, then only two playoff possibilities exist for Tampa Bay:
a. Tampa wins the division with 10 or more wins and is seeded as a division winner, meaning that the Bucs pose no threat to the Commanders
b. Tampa finishes with 9 or fewer wins, and cannot displace the 10-win Commanders from wildcard seeding
Cardinals
The Cardinals have already lost 7 games and cannot win more than 10 games this season. By virtue of the Commanders’ Week 4 victory over Arizona, Washington holds the head-to-head tie-breaker over the Cardinals. Arizona cannot displace a 10-win Commanders team.
Rams and Seahawks
The Rams and Seahawks each have 6 losses at the moment, but they play each other in Week 18, meaning that one of them (absent an unlikely tie) will pick up a 7th loss. We won’t worry about which one, but the loser of that game can have no more than 10 wins for the season.
Washington didn’t play either team in the regular season, so the applicable tie-breaker is conference record. Washington is 6-3 vs the NFC, and with a win vs the Falcons, can finish no worse than 7-5.
- The Rams are currently 5-5 vs the NFC
- The Seahawks are currently 4-5 vs the NFC
The loser of their Week 18 game cannot finish better than 6-6 against the conference, and would lose the tie-breaker against the Commanders.
Seahawks: To achieve a 7-5 conference record, the Seahawks would have to win the final 3 games, and would be division champs and no threat to the Commanders playoff seeding. If they lose a game, they can finish with no more than 10 wins, and would lose the tie-breaker to the Commanders.
Rams: The Rams can achieve a 7-5 conference record with just two wins since they have an AFC opponent (the Jets) still on their schedule.
– If the Rams win all their remaining games, they will win the division and will not threaten the Commanders playoff seeding
– If the Rams lose to either the Cardinals or Seahawks, they cannot finish with more than 10 wins or better than a 6-6 conference record, so the Commanders would hold the tie-breaker advantage.
– If the Rams beat the Cardinals & Seahawks but lose to the Jets, then they could finish with the identical conference record as the Commanders, and a tie-breaker, if needed, would move to best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
The Rams and Commanders have 4 common opponents: Cardinals, Bears, Eagles, and Saints. The Rams would have a 2-3 (.400) record against these four teams. The Commanders can finish no worse than 3-2 (.600) against this slate of opponents, and would win the tie-breaker over the Rams for the 7th seed in the playoffs.
Bottom line
With a win over the Falcons in Week 17, the Commanders can secure a playoff berth, regardless of the outcome of any other remaining NFL regular season games.
Week 16 rooting guide
Unfortunately, since Washington has not yet played the Falcons and is not guaranteed a victory in Week 17, it is good to know which game outcomes this week Washington fans should root for to enhance the team’s chances of securing a spot in the postseason.
(2-12) Giants at (7-7) Falcons
There are two reasons to root against the Falcons here. First is the obvious: the Falcons are a threat to Washington’s playoff seeding. Secondly is the desire to see the Giants lose draft position. Root for the NY Giants
(7-7) Cardinals at (3-11) Panthers
While the Cardinals are technically still ‘in the hunt’ for the 7th seed they can’t finish with more than 10 wins, and Washington holds the head-to-head tie-breaker advantage over Arizona. In short, Arizona can only get ahead of Washington in the playoff seeding if the Commanders go 0-3 to finish the season. A loss here would put the Cardinals, for all practical purposes, out of the playoff race. Since Arizona plays the Rams in Week 17, a motivated Cardinals team that is still aiming for the playoffs is better for the Commanders since they could knock off the Rams. It seems counter-intuitive, but root for the Cardinals here.
(8-6) Rams at (4-10) Jets
This is dead simple; root for the Jets to beat the Rams.
(12-2) Vikings at (8-6) Seahawks
Washington isn’t likely to pass the Vikings for a playoff spot. Root for Minnesota to beat the Seahawks.
(8-6) Buccaneers at (6-8) Cowboys
No one wants to root for the Cowboys. The good new is that, since Tampa Bay holds the head-to-head tie-breaker with Washington, we want to avoid the Buccaneers in competition for the 7th seed. The best way to do that is for the Bucs to win the NFC South division, which they currently lead. As long as TB keeps winning, Atlanta can’t catch them. Root for the Buccaneers to beat the Cowboys — it should come naturally.
(5-9) Saints at (10-4) Packers
If the Commanders beat the Eagles in Landover on Sunday afternoon, then a Packers loss on Monday Night Football would see Washington and Green Bay swap spots, with the Commanders taking over the 6th seed. Root for the Saints
Tie Breakers for non-division opponents
Two Clubs
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory in all games.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)
Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
- Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory in all games.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss