Things haven’t worked out for Ron Rivera and the Washington Commanders. In his fourth season, Rivera has compiled a 26-36-1 record with Washington and has four games remaining this season. The Commanders will be favored to lose all four games.
With new ownership in town, this is expected to be Rivera’s last season in Washington. New owner Josh Harris is a major proponent of analytics and has already made moves to make the Commanders more analytics-friendly by hiring Eugene Shen in October.
Who will replace Rivera? It’s too early to tell because Harris is also expected to bring in a new general manager. The bigger question is, will Washington opt for an offense-minded head coach, such as Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, or a defensive-minded coach, like Brian Flores of the Minnesota Vikings?
Analytics often favor the offensive coaches. And after the struggles over the last four years, most fans would prefer an offensive-minded coach. Rivera, a former NFL linebacker, made his name in coaching circles as a successful defensive coordinator.
Regardless of what side of the ball Washington’s next head coach comes from, the development of a young quarterback will be the highest priority.
But is this the year for the Commanders to choose for an offensive-minded coach? There are some appealing candidates, who come from a defensive background.
There are worthy offensive candidates, such as Ben Johnson, Frank Smith (Dolphins OC), Brian Johnson (Eagles OC), Eric Bieniemy (Commanders OC) and Bobby Slowik (Texans OC). But the pool of defensive coaches is deeper. Here are some of the top defensive-minded coaches who could land promotions in 2024:
- Cowboys DC Dan Quinn
- Vikings DC Brian Flores
- Panthers DC Ejiro Evero
- 49ers DC Steve Wilks
- Rams DC Raheem Morris
Four of these five have been head coaches before. Quinn led the Falcons to the Super Bowl and finished with a 43-42 record in five-plus seasons. Flores coached the Dolphins for three years, finishing with a record of 24-25. Morris coached the Buccaneers for three seasons (17-31) and was the Falcons’ interim coach when they fired Quinn (4-7).
Wilks had one season as the Cardinals head coach in which he went 3-13. However, he was the Panthers interim coach in 2022, finishing 6-6 and proving he deserves another shot.
Evero, 42, has held NFL jobs since 2007 and is ready for his first chance to be a head coach.
Washington’s defense, which was expected to be a strength in 2023, took major steps backward. The Commanders are last in the NFL in scoring defense and among the bottom five in every statistical category.
The offensive candidates represent more unknown than some of the defensive candidates. One criticism of defensive-minded head coaches is they are often more conservative than offensive coaches. That’s not entirely fair, as so much depends on the situation. A defensive-minded head coach isn’t going to be as aggressive with a rookie quarterback.
There could be as many as 10 coaching vacancies in 2024. There aren’t enough qualified offensive-minded coaches to fill all of those positions.
Why aren’t there more qualified offensive candidates in the upcoming cycle?
“There aren’t enough offensive guys to fill the spots,” one coaching agent told Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports.
“People are reaching on the offensive side,” one personnel executive told Jones. “There’s not enough out there.”
Another reason teams prefer offensive coaches is they don’t have to replace them if they are successful. If you hire an offensive-minded coach and have a successful offense, you keep the system in place. However, if you hire a defensive-minded coach and you hit on the offensive coordinator, other teams will poach him.
The Commanders will have a top-five pick in the 2024 NFL draft. They could opt for a quarterback or choose to build around Sam Howell in 2024 by selecting one of the draft’s top offensive tackles.
Washington is expected to be one of the more attractive GM/coaching openings in 2024.