Daily Slop – 18 Jul 25 – Why Terry McLaurin shouldn’t get paid more than Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans

A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders, the NFC East, the NFL and sports in general, and a sprinkling of other stuff

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Articles

Washington Post (paywall)

Paying Terry McLaurin big money may seem fair, but it’s bad business

There is major risk involved in signing McLaurin, who turns 30 this September, to a long-term contract extension.

Is it smart to commit big money and multiple years to a player entering his 30s, no matter how respected he is in the locker room? Angering or losing a fan favorite can spark backlash, but teams that prioritize emotion over economics often end up paying for past performance at the expense of future flexibility.

Viewed purely through a football business lens, there is a strong case against the Commanders giving McLaurin a big-money contract extension.

Wideouts age 30 or older tend to decline

Especially for wide receivers who play primarily on the outside like McLaurin, reaching age 30 is rarely the beginning of anything. Historical aging curves show that production — measured in this case by fantasy football point output — tends to peak between ages 23 and 27, with sharp declines beginning around 28. Fantasy scoring isn’t perfect, but it’s a decent shorthand for real-world productivity. Based on that curve it’s more probable that McLaurin will regress from last year’s highs than sustain or surpass them in the coming seasons.

The issue isn’t that McLaurin wasn’t worth $30 million, or more, last year. It’s whether he is worth that going forward.

McLaurin deserves respect and reward for what he’s already done, and there’s no question the Commanders would be in trouble this coming season if he didn’t play, given he is far and away the team’s most productive pass-catcher. But NFL contracts aren’t about the past; they’re about paying for future production, and the data strongly suggests his next few seasons will look more like a gentle descent than a sustained peak. Overcommitting to McLaurin at, say, $30 to 35 million per year risks hamstringing the team’s ability to build its roster in the coming years.

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Bullock’s Film Room (subscription)

What Von Miller brings to the Washington Commanders

The Commanders made a surprising move just days before the start of training camp. News broke late on Wednesday night that star pass rusher and future hall of famer Von Miller is signing with the Washington Commanders for the 2025 season. As of writing, details of the move haven’t been announced and the team hasn’t yet confirmed it officially, but Miller posted a picture of himself in the Commanders new alternate uniforms on his social media platforms to confirm the news.

One of the major topics of the offseason for the Commanders has been the pass rush and how the Commanders can improve there. The team lost one of their top pass rushers in Dante Fowler in free agency and didn’t replace him with any high profile free agent or top draft pick. Instead they’ve decided to bring in a legendary but also 36-year-old pass rusher to bolster their ranks. So of course the question now for the Commanders and their fans is what exactly does Miller have left in the tank?

Miller has 129.5 career sacks, which puts him 16th all time in the NFL sack records. He needs 8.5 sacks to get himself into the top 10, and he had six last year playing a part time role for the Bills. What’s important for Commanders fans to understand about Miller from the start is that he’s not going to be an every down player. His snap count percentages have dropped pretty drastically. Since joining the Bills in 2022, his snap counts have steadily declined. He played around 60% of the snaps in 2022, down from his 71% in 2021. In 2023 and 2024, he played about 32% of the snaps in Buffalo.

Those numbers should tell you the change in role for Miller as he has aged. He’s now a situational pass rusher rather than an every down player. His role now is much like the role Dante Fowler played under Dan Quinn in Dallas, where he was a situational pass rusher that played 30%-ish of the snaps. That was what Fowler was meant to do here as well, but with injuries he was forced into a bigger role, which he then took advantage of. But Miller likely isn’t capable of sustaining his high standards for extended periods of play any more, so his role will be limited to situational rusher.

However, that doesn’t mean he can’t still be an important piece of the defense. While Miller’s snaps have decreased, it’s clear to see when watching him that he has a lot to offer as a pass rusher. He’s an incredible athlete with fantastic measurables which help him in his pass rush, but over the years he’s developed a strong and well-rounded toolkit to enable him to attack blockers in a variety of ways. In his later years, Miller created a now annual pass rush camp where all the top pass rushers in the NFL meet once a year to discuss different techniques and moves to help improve as rushers. When you watch Miller’s game, you see why his insight is so sought after, because he has such a variety of ways to beat a blocker, even in his mid-30’s.

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ESPN

How Von Miller can help Commanders’ defense in 2025

Miller can help Washington, but he’s also 36 years old.

That said, he doesn’t need to return to his Pro Bowl and All-Pro pass rushing days to be of service. Of course every team could use a dynamic edge rusher. But short of that, Washington also needs options and only needs Miller to become their closer — a la former New York Yankees great Mariano Rivera — and provide the defensive punctuations they failed to make last season.

Miller needs to be viewed as another chess piece and not just the final piece — a guy who they hope can impact those around him while still having his presence felt by opposing quarterbacks. One former teammate who also has faced him said Miller was still explosive. But he also pointed out the impact injuries have taken on the 2011 No. 2 overall pick.

The signing is the latest in a string of clear acquisitions that Washington is “going for it” this season. But it also highlights another change in Washington: Older players used to chase the money in D.C., now they’re chasing rings. Players such as Miller, linebacker Bobby Wagner and tight Zach Ertz, would not be here otherwise.

In the fourth quarter of games, Washington recorded five sacks — the third-lowest mark in the league. The Commanders’ pass rush win rate in the final quarter last season was 13.3%; only one player, Wagner, at 31.6% was better than 21.1% in this category, according to ESPN Research. With Buffalo last season, Miller had a pass rush win rate in the fourth quarter of 25.5% — third-highest in the NFL.

In those quarters Miller had 12 pass rush wins — one more than anyone on Washington’s roster.

One league source earlier this offseason pointed out how Quinn brought in former Indianapolis Colts great Dwight Freeney for a similar role when Quinn was coach of the Atlanta Falcons in 2016 — a year the Falcons reached the Super Bowl. It’s why they signed Wagner last offseason: Quinn values that mentorship at each position group — a practice that paid off last season.

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Pro Football Talk

Commanders agree to terms with second-rounder Trey Amos

According to multiple reports, cornerback Trey Amos has agreed to a four-year pact with the Commanders. Amos was the 61st overall selection in April.

There were 30 unsigned second-round picks earlier this week, but Amos is one of seven picks to agree to terms in the last couple of days. The amount of overall guaranteed money in the deals were the sticking point in negotiations and the dam breaking should lead to several more agreements in the near future.

Amos played at Louisiana and Alabama before finishing up his college time at Ole Miss last season. He had 50 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions, and a forced fumble in 13 starts.

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Washington Post (paywall)

Von Miller is a luxury item for a Commanders team that can afford one

Washington is now a destination for former stars such as Miller, who was looking for a ready-made Super Bowl contender to join.

At this stage of his career, Miller plays a handful of passing-down snaps per game with the hope that on one of them he might ruin another city’s Sunday. He is a closer, a specialist with a specific skill for a specific moment. He can offer only flashes of his past brilliance, but the Commanders have reached a phase of contention at which that is all they require.

Miller played roughly a third of the Buffalo Bills’ defensive snaps last season and recorded six sacks. The Commanders would sign up for that, especially if one or two of those sacks kill an opponent’s fourth-quarter drive in December. He had no sacks during Buffalo’s march to the AFC championship game, but he scooped up Lamar Jackson’s fumble and returned it 39 yards in a tight playoff victory over the Baltimore Ravens.

With the Commanders coming off an NFC championship game appearance, it’s notable they are in position to justifiably indulge in a hyper-specific role player with elite pedigree; they plan on having late leads, and they want a specialist to slam the door. It’s also worth noting the other side of the transaction. The Commanders have transformed from a Superfund site to a place where veterans with options want to come.

The reason is obvious, and he wears No. 5. A handful of quarterbacks — maybe four, maybe six, no more than eight — ensure annual aspiration of championship contention. Jayden Daniels is one of them. Dan Quinn’s reputation as a player’s coach helps, but Daniels is the magnet for players chasing one more January run.

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Commanders.com

2025 opponent breakdown | Denver Broncos

• Can Bo Nix avoid a sophomore slump? Like Daniels with the Commanders, Nix ignited the Broncos’ offense. He had the most passing yards for a Denver quarterback since Case Keenum in 2018, and had it not been for Daniels’ becoming the talk of the league, he would have had a good shot at being the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Nix outperformed several expectations for him with his arm strength and decision-making, but also like Daniels, he will need to prove that he can replicate that success while also elevating the offense around him. While Daniels and the Commanders had a top 10 unit in nearly every category, the Broncos were around the middle of the league, despite Nix having impressive moments.
• Can the defense have an encore performance? Much of the Broncos’ success in 2024 stemmed from their defense, which was particularly stingy against the run and allowed the third-fewest points per game. They also excelled in creating turnovers, as their 25 takeaways were tied for sixth most in the league. Though the yards allowed per game don’t show it, they were also effective against the pass with Surtain batting away balls and Bonitto harassing quarterbacks. It won’t be easy to replicate that success, particularly in a conference that is full of top-tier quarterbacks, but they have the personnel to do it. The group is mostly the same aside from the departure of Cody Barton, and they have added players like Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. It’s rare for defenses to have good performances year-over-year, but the Broncos might be one of the few exceptions to that trend.
• Will RJ Harvey be enough to get the run game going? The run was one of the obvious areas that needed to improve in 2025. The Broncos had a committee approach to things with Williams leading the way and Nix adding 430 yards, but Williams is with the Cowboys now, and there needs to be a new leader in the Broncos’ backfield. It seems like Harvey, who had 22 rushing touchdowns in 2024, and veteran J.K. Dobbins will have a one-two punch. Harvey was exceptional during his final two seasons at UCF with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Dobbins, who has struggled to be on the field for most of his career, was at his best last season with 905 yards and nine touchdowns while playing for the Chargers. Their tandem, plus a few scrambles from Nix, might be enough to boost Denver’s ground game, which hasn’t fielded a top 10 rushing unit since 2011.

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Podcasts & videos

Zach Ertz on Coach Dan Quinn Being BEST Coach to Him, Becoming a Top 5 Tight End, & Terry McLaurin!

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Art Monk #81 Jersey Retirement, Gary Clark on ‘The Posse’ and Jayden Daniels Film Room

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NFC East links

Dallas Morning News

Cowboys plan to reduce Trevon Diggs’ salary for not working out enough with the team

Diggs will take a $500,000 hit for not completing at least 84% of his workouts, as required by his contract.

Team officials will deduct $500,000 from Diggs’ $9 million base salary for his failure to complete at least 84% of his offseason workouts, a person with knowledge of Diggs’ contract told The Dallas Morning News.

Diggs is recovering from surgery on his left knee.

Instead of doing a majority of his rehab work at The Star with team medical officials, he elected to do it away from the facility. Diggs has not told the media what his issues are with the team’s medical staff.

Last season, Diggs endured cartilage issues before ending his season after 11 games. In January, Diggs underwent a chondral tissue graft surgery to replace the damaged cartilage.

In 2023, Diggs suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during a practice before the third game of the season.

Diggs said the injury he suffered last season isn’t related to poor rehab work or the ACL tear. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones intimated Diggs needed to work better in rehab without identifying what areas the team wanted to see improved.

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Blogging the Boys

Micah Parsons extension watch: Steelers give T.J. Watt deal worth $41M per year, $108M guaranteed

Paying Micah Parsons just got more expensive.

Paraphrasing a bit, Parsons noted that he wanted to get the deal done last year and that he didn’t understand why the Cowboys were waiting because other deals could happen that would impact the math at play. Jerry Jones infamously referred to this idea before last year’s NFL Draft as leaves falling.

Timber. A whole tree has come down.

The Pittsburgh Steelers just gave T.J. Watt a deal that will serve as a bar for the Cowboys to clear. The important details are that Watt (who the Cowboys very infamously drafted Taco Charlton over, by the way) is making $41M per year and received $108M fully guaranteed.

If the Cowboys had shown some proactivity this or last offseason, then they could have in all likelihood come in at numbers below these. At this point, Parsons and his representation will obviously use this deal to their advantage.

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NFL league links

Articles

The Athletic (paywall)

NFLPA executive director Lloyd Howell steps down after weeks of criticism

NFL Players Association executive director Lloyd Howell Jr. is stepping down, effective immediately, Howell announced in a statement via the NFLPA on Thursday. A source briefed on the procedure told The Athletic that the NFLPA executive board plans to meet in the coming days to discuss next steps, including naming an interim executive director.

The move follows several weeks of criticism aimed at the NFLPA, including concerns about a potential conflict of interest involving Howell and reporting that the NFLPA agreed to a confidentiality agreement with the NFL to hide information about an arbitration decision.

“It’s clear that my leadership has become a distraction to the important work the NFLPA advances every day,” Howell wrote in the statement. “… I hope this will allow the NFLPA to maintain its focus on its player members ahead of the upcoming season.”

Last week, ESPN reported, and sources familiar with the situation confirmed, that in addition to his work with the NFLPA, Howell is also a paid, part-time consultant for a private equity firm approved by the NFL to pursue minority ownership stakes in franchises.

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Front Office Sports

Netflix Beats Projections Again—and Plots Big Holiday Sports Slate

Even as its streaming rivals grow, both in size and number, Netflix again surpassed expectations.

Since the last earnings report for Netflix, the streamer learned its Christmas NFL doubleheader in 2025 will include the Cowboys visiting the Commanders, followed by the Lions facing the Vikings. With the twin bill of attractive, late-season matchups of division rivals, Netflix seeks to beat its 2024 Christmas viewership, which averaged more than 24 million viewers and set a league streaming record.

“Our live strategy and our sports strategy are unchanged,” said Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos. “We remain focused on ownable, big, breakthrough events, because our audiences really love them. Anything we chase in the events space or in the sports space has got to make economic sense as well. We bring a lot to the table, and the deals that we make have to reflect that.”

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Discussion topics

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