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Daily Slop – 20 Sep 24: Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow; Luke McCaffrey, Tee Higgins, the NFL’s short passing game, and Philly’s crappy run defense

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A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders, the NFC East and the NFL in general

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Articles

Athlon Sports

Commanders vs. Bengals Preview: Brian Robinson Jr. Key to Upset?

Brian Robinson Jr. and the Washington Commanders’ improved running game will again be crucial in Sunday’s game against the favored Cincinnati Bengals.

Brian Robinson Jr. Robinson powered the Commanders’ offense, rushing for 133 yards on 17 carries, averaging an impressive 7.8 yards per attempt. His contribution was instrumental in Washington’s success, as they controlled the tempo and leaned heavily on the ground game.

According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Robinson now ranks fourth among all running backs with an overall grade of 78.8. His balanced contributions include a 70.7 rushing grade, 87.9 receiving grade, and 73.6 pass-blocking grade over 76 snaps played. His 40-yard run in the game set the tone for Washington’s physical dominance on the ground.

Through two games, Robinson has compiled 173 rushing yards on 29 carries with one touchdown. His Week 2 performance stood out as he consistently found gaps in the Giants’ defense, providing Washington with a much-needed offensive identity.

Washington will look to exploit a Bengals defense that surrendered 149 rushing yards to the Kansas City Chiefs in their previous matchup.

Heavy.com

Jayden Daniels Explains Terry McLaurin’s Lack of Targets for Commanders

Daniels acknowledged, “obviously we gotta get Terry the ball. But at the end of the day, you gotta spread the ball around. Defenses are gonna key on Terry, respectfully and respect to him because of what he has done in his league,” per JP Finlay of NBC4 Sports.

Daniels is right to emphasise the importance of involving other receivers. The Heisman Trophy winner is also correct about the attention McLaurin draws in coverage, especially since the Commanders lack another wideout with ‘Scary Terry’s’ playmaking ability.

The Commanders need a better plan for McLaurin, and head coach Dan Quinn appears to know it. Quinn told reporters how “trying to move Terry around, into different spots, is important,” per Ben Standig of The Athletic.

McLaurin would be one of the main beneficiaries of Daniels speeding up his decision-making process. A lag prevented Daniels from finding McLaurin for a touchdown against the New York Giants in week 2.

Riggo’s Rag

Overlooked stats offer promising Luke McCaffrey outlook despite Week 2 goose egg

Luke McCaffrey is getting open.

Commanders WR Luke McCaffrey has one of the highest separation rates through Week 2

According to Pro Football Focus, McCaffrey is getting open consistently. He was ranked No. 4 in separation percentage in Week 2, which is measured by how often a wide receiver beats coverage. This places him at No. 3 across the league through the opening two weeks of the campaign.

Even though McCaffrey didn’t benefit from that this week, it’s not for a lack of trying. His route efficiency is developing quicker than anyone envisaged. The stats prove it and this also comes across on the game film for good measure.

The NFL is becoming more reliant on analytics. This is also something majority partner Josh Harris wants to implement across the Commanders’ football operation under his leadership – something that received the approval of general manager Adam Peters during their lengthy discussions before confirming his appointment.

The fact McCaffrey is so far up the separation percentage standings without getting any targets is something to ponder.

Commanders.com

Practice notes | Commanders prepare for prime time fight against Bengals

The Commanders will travel to Cincinnati this weekend to take on the Bengals, who have an 0-2 record but are still considered one of the better teams in the AFC with Super Bowl aspirations. It’s another opportunity for Washington, a team with a young and mostly overturned roster from 2023, to show how they stack up against a playoff caliber organization and whether they can build on the offensive improvements in Week 2.

The players believe they will be ready for the challenge.

The main attraction[s] for the evening will be Daniels and Joe Burrow, both of whom won the Heisman Trophy while playing at LSU, facing off against each other for the first time. Daniels and Burrow broke several program and NCAA records with the Tigers; Daniels is the only player in FBS history with 12,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards, while Burrow completed his career [with] the best completion rate (68.5%) and [number of] passing touchdowns (76) in school history.

“Once eight o’clock or whatever comes, you’re not thinking about records,” Quinn said. “You’re just thinking about ‘how do we go win,’ and we’re really pumped to go battle with them, and we’ve got respect for them, but we’ll be ready to fight as well.”

ESPN

Daniels reflects on following Burrow at LSU ahead of MNF matchup

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels felt the pressure when he arrived at LSU. Two years earlier, quarterback Joe Burrow had led the Tigers to a national championship, won the Heisman Trophy and become the top pick in the draft.

And two years later Daniels exited in almost similar fashion: winning the Heisman and becoming the No. 2 pick in the draft. They face one another for the first time in the NFL on Monday night when Washington (1-1) plays at Cincinnati (0-2).

But, Daniels said, it wasn’t easy.

“It was a crazy experience,” Daniels said of following Burrow. “The fans were very spoiled of what Joe did. They were looking for The Next. My first year, I played really well and it still wasn’t enough for the fans. Coming back I was like, OK, I’m not going to care what anybody says and I had the year I had. You’ve got to earn the respect of people, but to come after Joe? It’s not easy at all man. Not at all.”

Both players excelled in their second year with LSU after transferring from elsewhere — and both were considered likely middle-rounds picks had they exited after that first season.

Upcoming opponent

Sports Illustrated

Bengals Star Could Return vs. Commanders

The Washington Commanders will likely face one of the Cincinnati Bengals’ best players this week.

According to ESPN insider Ben Baby, Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins is set to return to practice.

Higgins, 25, has dealt with a hamstring injury that has held him out of the first two weeks of the season. His return to practice is a good sign that he will be ready for Monday night’s game against the Commanders.

Week 3 Commanders vs Bengals Preview — The Orange and Black Insider

We take a look at what is teetering on “must-win” territory for the Bengals against Washington and give another nod to Monday Night’s inductees into the Ring of Honor.

Cincy Jungle

Bengals still have 43% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN analytics

There is still a lot of room for hope despite the slow start.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Bengals have a 43% of making the playoffs. That’s best among all the 0-2 teams: Baltimore Ravens (42%), Indianapolis Colts (22%), Jacksonville Jaguars (22%), Tennessee Titans (12%), Los Angeles Rams (11%), New York Giants (4%), Denver Broncos (4%), and Carolina Panthers (2%).

Not only that, but Cincinnati has a better chance of making the playoffs than some 1-1 teams, like the Miami Dolphins (19%), the New England Patriots (15%), the Chicago Bears (28%), and the Bengals’ upcoming opponent, the Washington Commanders (21%).

In fact, the Bengals even have about the same chance as the 2-0 Seattle Seahawks.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell explains why the Bengals still have promise by writing that Cincinnati “probably deserved to win” against the Chiefs and that a fumble “victimized” the Bengals’ chances for the second straight week. He adds that he is “optimistic” about the upcoming schedule, as they will face the Commanders, Panthers, Giants, and Cleveland Browns.

Can the Bengals avoid another letdown against the Commanders? We discuss below:

NFL.com

Ranking NFL’s nine winless teams: Who has most hope to turn 2024 season around before it’s too late?

There are recent examples of swift turnarounds. The Bengals famously did so in 2022, making it all the way to the AFC Championship Game after dropping their first two contests of the season. Last year’s Texans lost by double digits their first two times out … and then proceeded to win the AFC South and log a rollicking postseason win, fueled by C.J. Stroud’s ridiculous rookie campaign.

With all that in mind, let’s spotlight one reason to be optimistic about each 0-2 team, while simultaneously ranking these nine struggling squads according to who has the best chance to turn this season around.

No. 2 – Cincinnati Bengals

Reason for optimism: Zac Taylor’s club has been here (too many times) before.

This marks the third consecutive season in which the Bengals started 0-2. In 2022, they went to the AFC title game, and last year, they still finished 9-8 despite Joe Burrow suffering a season-ending injury in Week 11. It’s old hat for Burrow to begin the season in the red. The QB is 1-9 in his career in Weeks 1 and 2.

Week 1’s loss to New England was a dismal affair in which Cincinnati looked like a team that sat its starters for the preseason. Week 2 looked much better, with the defense flying around and the offense looking crisper. Miscues cost the Bengals — including a Burrow fumble that was returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter — but there are worse misdeeds than losing to the back-to-back reigning Super Bowl champs in Kansas City.

The good news is that Cincy outgained Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 320-286 despite Tee Higgins being out and Ja’Marr Chase being held to four catches for 35 yards. The emergence of Mike Gesicki and Andrei Iosivas, as well as a big catch from rookie Jermaine Burton, could portend a more diverse offense in 2024.

When Higgins eventually returns, we’ll see if Chase gets back to his field-stretching ways. Thus far this season, the Bengals’ WR1 has been targeted just twice on 22 vertical routes (two catches for 40 yards), according to Next Gen Stats. Chase’s average depth of route has decreased each season, but keeping those explosive plays alive makes Cincinnati extremely dangerous. Higgins returning to the lineup (whether this week or not) should help open things up, adding a presence who can win one-on-one matchups. Per NGS, Burrow has faced man coverage on 40 percent of his dropbacks without Higgins, averaging a 33.3 percent success rate against man coverage compared to a 48.9 percent success rate vs. zone.

Given the Bengals history and the fact that they have already made strides without Higgins on the field, it would be foolish to count out Burrow and Co. in the AFC playoff race. Additionally, it’s not as if the rest of the AFC North has played crisply to open the season.

Podcasts & videos

Stars Shine Bright on Monday Night Football | Command Center | Washington Commanders | MNF | NFL

Monday Night Football Vs. Bengals Preview, Giants Recap & Emmys | Get Loud | Washington Commanders

NFC East links

NBC Sports

Will Eagles be able to fix terrible run defense?

A difficult beginning to the season for the Eagles’ run defense who will have their hands full in Week 3 against Alvin Kamara and the Saints.

Don’t worry, the Eagles aren’t the first team in NFL history to allow 315 rushing yards and 6.4 yards per carry in their first two games.

It’s happened before.

Like Washington in 1944. The 1945 Steelers. And the 1950 Baltimore Colts. The 1952 Dallas Texans and 1959 Washington. Seven other teams as well.

But there’s no way around the fact that through two games the Eagles have one of the worst run defenses in NFL history.

And Alvin Kamara and his NFL-best 5.7 yards per carry are three days away.

Yikes.

[S]o far, they haven’t stopped anybody. Josh Jacobs averaged 5.3 yards per carry, Bijan Robinson 6.9 and Tyler Allgeier 5.9.

All last year only four running backs averaged at least 5.3 yards per carry vs. the Eagles on eight or more carries. Three have done it already this year in just two games.

The Eagles are only the seventh team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to allow 6.4 yards per carry and at least 315 rushing yards through two weeks. And that 6.4 figure would be 6.7 if not for two Kirk Cousins kneel downs.

Last year, 15 percent of running plays against the Eagles went for eight or more yards. This year that figure has almost doubled to 29 percent.

Things don’t get any easier Sunday when the Eagles face the 2-0 Saints on the fast track at the Superdome.

Kamara ran just 15 times for 83 yards and a TD with a 5.5 average in the opener vs. the Panthers and 20 times for 115 yards and three TDs with a 5.8 average Sunday in the win over the Cowboys in Dallas.

He’s only the fourth player in the last 40 years with 198 rushing yards, a 5.7 average and four rushing TDs through two weeks. The others are Emmitt Smith, Terrell Davis and Adrian Peterson.

Blogging the Boys

Cowboys fans have no confidence in the franchise, don’t think they will win Week 3

Cowboys fans are down pretty bad these days.

The Cowboys are coming off two straight blowouts at home, with an excellent road performance sandwiched in between. But what may be fueling the ire of the fanbase is the problems that were on display last Sunday, and the Cowboys front office not really moving in the offseason to fix them. The Cowboys run defense got torched, and the Cowboys offensive run game has been meh at best. Jerry and Stephen Jones chose to not really address either issue in a substantive way this offseason.

So we asked you earlier this week about your confidence level in the direction of the franchise. Only 14% were confident. That is amazingly low.

We also asked you if the Cowboys (+1.5 FanDuel) would win on Sunday versus the Baltimore Ravens. Only 27% foresee a win.

Needless to say, the fanbase in general is not buying what the Cowboys are selling at the moment.

NFL league links

Articles

The Athletic (paywall)

Dinking and dunking to success? NFL QBs are using short, quick passes at a record pace

[Josh] Allen, like many quarterbacks around the league, has been forced to adapt to the NFL’s changing defensive schemes. It wasn’t long ago when Allen was Buffalo’s power hitter, ripping chunk plays from the pocket on the seams and go routes to the outside. Now he’s often looking across at two deep safeties positioned to eliminate the big play, leaving him content to be a slap hitter: Singles up the middle on short, quick passes until the Bills reach the red zone.

“It’s understanding that when I do take risks, that they’re calculated, and the reward is well worth it,” Allen told The Athletic. “I haven’t thrown the ball too many times downfield.”

He’s not alone.

It has only been two weeks, but 31 percent of Allen’s targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia data, putting him well above a fast-rising league average.

More than 24 percent of the league’s throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt. That’s the highest percentage, and the lowest air yards, through the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006.

Mahomes has thrown 38 percent of his passes to targets at or behind the line of scrimmage. That’s the third-highest for any quarterback this year and it’s his highest percentage through the first two weeks of any season. If it holds, it would easily be the highest percentage of his career.


Playing two high safeties has been around for generations but waned in popularity over time. More recently, teams were trying to replicate Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” defense with good cornerbacks on the outside, a single post safety with range and an aggressive front seven.

There are still those who play that way, but it exposes too many defenses to deep shots and big plays. In response, a number of teams have favored split safeties with a zone defense that leaves open the underneath but protects against chunk plays. It forces offenses to operate within a 5-to-10-yard box.

The short, quick passing game is a natural evolution from college offenses that have been doing it for years. Many young NFL quarterbacks ran this style in college and have a comfort level with it.

It can also protect weaker offensive lines against edge rushers that have never been as fast and powerful across the league as they are today.

There was a time not long ago when mobile quarterbacks favored run-pass option plays that allowed the quarterback to decide what to do based on scheme. But that comes with the risk of an illegal man downfield penalty. By throwing it quickly down the line of scrimmage, it gets the ball into the playmakers’ hands while allowing the line and other receivers to begin blocking right away.


Pro Football Talk

Morgan Moses will have evaluation on left knee injury on Friday

Jets starting right tackle Morgan Moses exited Thursday night’s win over the Patriots with a left knee injury. It looked serious initially, before he got up and walked off.

After the game, coach Robert saleh said Moses will be evaluated on Friday. Saleh, via Rich Simini of ESPN.com, declined to comment on the potential severity of the injury.

Mike Garafolo of NFL Media adds that Moses said in the locker room that he doesn’t believe the injury to be serious.

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