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Daily Slop – 24 Oct 23: Pressure builds on Sam Howell and Commanders coaches as sacks and losses pile up

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Commanders.com

Notes & Quotes | Injury updates on Cody Barton, Saahdiq Charles

Rivera provided some injury updates on Cody Barton and Saahdiq Charles. Both players are getting MRIs, but it is believed that Barton has a high ankle sprain and Charles strained his calf muscle.

Rivera also knows the fans are frustrated with the team’s performances of late.

“I respect them. We’re trying to play the best football we can and at the same time grow a football team. We’re not gonna go around cutting a bunch of people, trading for a whole bunch of people, trying to hire a bunch of people. We’re trying to develop a young football team to be a very good football team for the future. And that’s what we’re gonna continue to work on. We’re gonna continue to find ways to win football games, and we’ll do the best we can. We’ll show up, we’ll work very hard. We’ll do everything we can, and we’ll continue to be committed to try to put a good product on the football field and give our fans something to cheer about.”

Washington Post (paywall)

Sam Howell might be the QB of the future, but the present is alarming

With Howell under center, Washington’s passing offense is scoring about five fewer points per game than you would expect based on the down, distance and field position of each dropback, per data from TruMedia. That’s the second-worst performance from a Washington starting quarterback through the first seven weeks of a season since 2002, trailing only the late Dwayne Haskins’s 2020 campaign. Howell ranks 25th in expected points added (or in this case, subtracted) per game among qualified quarterbacks in 2023.


It’s easy to see how we got here if we use analyst Adam Harstad’s metaphor of the quarterback position being a stool with three analytical legs: yards per attempt, interception percentage and sack percentage. Harstad argues that pass pressure forces a quarterback to make trade-offs on those three legs. In his words, you can either sacrifice yards per attempt by checking down (passing the ball to safer targets to gain incremental yardage and reduce the risk of turnovers) or throwing out of bounds; sacrifice interception percentage by forcing the ball into tight coverage; or sacrifice sack percentage by holding on to the ball too long. Howell, though, grades out well in none of those categories, which means his stool isn’t unbalanced — it just has three stubby legs.


Many of Howell’s supporters note his upside when everything goes right. Yet when he is facing no pass pressure (i.e. a clean pocket), Howell is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt (16th out of 32 qualified passers), with an average passer rating in those situations (99.2) compared to the rest of the league (98.4). However, his average time to throw in a clean pocket is 2.57 seconds (ranking just 26th fastest), perhaps reducing the effectiveness of his receivers and making Washington’s offense more predictable. It could also be why each of his three primary wide receivers — Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel — are averaging fewer yards gained after the catch this season compared to last season.


Bullock’s Film Room (subscription)

Evaluating Sam Howell’s performance against the Giants

Taking a closer look at how Sam Howell performed against the Giants

Correct decisions, poor execution

In a game like this one, it’d be easy to just write off everything the offense did as terrible, but that’s not how you go about teaching a young quarterback to grow. What you need to do is evaluate each play on its merit and find if mistakes were made in the decision making process or if they were execution based mistakes. There were a few examples in this game where Howell actually made the correct decisions but his execution was off, leading to missed opportunities.

On this third and five play in the second quarter, the Giants go aggressive and call Cover-0. For those that might not know, Cover-0 is effectively an all out blitz where the defense assigns one defender for each eligible receiver and they play pure man coverage, but every other defender blitzes. This is a risky strategy because it leaves the coverage defenders with zero safety help, but it does guarantee that the defense can rush one more defender than the offense is able to pick up.

Howell actually appears to correctly identify the Cover-0 blitz from the Giants and understands that tight end Logan Thomas is left one-on-one against the deep safety in the middle of the field. There’s a lot of ground for that safety to make up in order to get to Thomas, so Howell knows he has a favorable look there. Once he snaps the ball, he confirms it is Cover-0 and the Giants get a free rusher off the edge. Howell throws over that free rusher towards Thomas, which is absolutely the right thing to do. However, the execution of that pass is off. The throw is high and Thomas does his best to try and go up and make a play on the ball, but he just can’t quite pull it in.

While the execution was just slightly off there, the positive for the Commanders is that Howell appeared to have the correct process and got to the right read. Obviously you’d like to see him correct the execution, but that’s easier to do than correcting an entire process in getting to the throw. Now perhaps in future, Howell might see that look and give Thomas a signal to adjust his route and break it off quicker, allowing Howell to make an easier throw and giving Thomas more space after the catch to try and avoid the safety coming from deep. But that is something that lots of young quarterbacks would miss.

Sports Illustrated

Washington Commanders at Risk of Ruining Sam Howell’s Career?

With 40 sacks through seven games, Sam Howell is on a record pace for sacks taken in his first season as the Washington Commanders’ starting quarterback.

The last time a quarterback took the amount of punishment Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has through the first seven games of the season, you would have to go back 21 years to the 2002 season.

That was when David Carr was the starting quarterback as a rookie for a Houston Texans team in its first season as an expansion franchise. He was sacked 43 times through his first seven games and finished the season with 76, the most a quarterback has ever been sacked in an NFL season.

Anytime you’re drawing parallels to Carr’s rookie season and the Texans’ inability to protect him, it’s never a good thing. But through seven games, Howell’s first seven games have nearly been a spitting image of Carr’s.

Reshuffling the offensive line would be a start. Offensive tackle Cornelius Lucas was Washington’s best offensive lineman when he made an emergency start for Charles Leno against the Atlanta Falcons on Oct. 15. Starting him on the offensive line is a necessity at this point.

More emphasis on running the ball would also go a long way toward protecting Howell. Washington only averages 86.1 rushing yards per game, the 26th worst in the league, and has only run the ball 143 times this season, the 29th least in the NFL.

Washington Post (paywall)

Hail or Fail: Washington’s third-down execution was as abysmal as its play-calling

Fail: Third down

After converting 2 of 10 third downs in last week’s ugly win at Atlanta, the Commanders were 1 of 15 on third down against the Giants. Washington has failed to convert a single third down three times before, including in its infamous 59-28 loss to the Eagles on “Monday Night Football” in 2010, but Sunday marked the first time Washington had converted one or fewer third downs on at least 15 attempts. The Giants had been allowing opponents to convert at a 43.7 percent rate, the seventh-worst mark in the league.

Fail: Offensive play-calling

The Commanders managed 46 yards in the first half while passing twice as often as they ran the ball. Rather than calling quick passes, dialing up screens or handing the ball off in an attempt to neutralize New York’s effective pass rush, Washington continued to have Howell drop back. The results were predictably ugly as Howell took as many sacks (five) as he had completions through two quarters. Coordinator Eric Bieniemy seemed to make some adjustments in the fourth quarter, which produced a couple of long drives. The first ended in a blocked field goal after Coach Ron Rivera decided not to go for it on fourth and three. The second resulted in a turnover on downs. Washington’s seven points were the fewest allowed by New York since 2021.

The Athletic (paywall)

Commanders’ flop amps up pressure as NFL trade deadline decisions (Chase Young?) loom

According to multiple people with direct knowledge of the team’s thinking, the Commanders have not had contract extension negotiations with the representative for either Young or Sweat, who are both represented by Klutch Sports Group. There also weren’t any formal or significant trade conversations, or anything beyond due diligence, with other teams entering Sunday, nor had the Commanders determined whether they would be buyers or sellers.

One high-ranking front-office executive from another team said following Sunday’s game that he believes Washington “will sell” at the deadline and that Young and Sweat are “available.”

“They won’t say it publicly, but they will (sell),” the executive said. “They’re looking for value. All on the table.”

The chatter about Washington potentially moving either pass rusher isn’t new in the public square. It’s not even fresh for this season or calendar year.

The Commanders have the tools to keep Young and Sweat. They could sign one and slap the franchise tag on the other. Otherwise, one, if not both, will play elsewhere next season. If either leaves as a free agent, Washington could receive a third-round compensatory pick — in 2025. Trade one by Halloween and the acquired picks or players would immediately be on the books.

If the Commanders sell, Curl, cornerback Kendall Fuller, wide receiver Curtis Samuel, running back Antonio Gibson and three other defensive ends are also in contract years. Gibson received four touches — including two carries — compared to seven (all on the ground) for rookie running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. on Sunday. Linebacker Cody Barton, who signed a one-year free-agent deal this offseason, was wearing a walking boot postgame after leaving with an ankle injury. Tight end Logan Thomas and left tackle Charles Leno Jr. are also on tradable contracts.

Riggo’s Rag

9 potential replacements for Commanders head coach Ron Rivera in 2024

The pressure is building on Ron Rivera…

Commanders could hire Frank Smith

The Miami Dolphins offense has taken the NFL by storm this season. Ron Rivera and the Washington Commanders will need a plan to counteract this supreme threat later in the campaign during a daunting gauntlet that could seal the head coach’s fate, which is becoming likelier with every passing defeat.

While most of the credit goes to Mike McDaniel, the influence of offensive coordinator Frank Smith cannot be overlooked, either. His knowledge, innovative concepts, and ability to put his players in the best possible positions to execute are all traits teams search for in the hope of replicating similar success for their franchise.

Smith is a progressive thinker – one only has to look at how players and coaches who’ve worked with him speak so glowingly to see the sort of impact he makes. Miami’s juggernaut offense will see attention come his way, although they’ll likely fight hard in an attempt to keep him around.

Most of the league missed a significant opportunity to hire McDaniel from the San Francisco 49ers. They won’t want to make the same mistake again with someone like Smith, so he can expect interview requests to pour in during the upcoming 2024 head coaching cycle.

The Commanders are crying out for inspiration on offense more often than not. While Eric Bieniemy’s done an admirable job, it’s hard to look at the Dolphins’ explosiveness and dynamic approach and not think Smith’s concepts wouldn’t be a massive upgrade.

Commanders could hire Thomas Brown

The Carolina Panthers spared no expense when it came to forming a formidable coaching staff under Frank Reich during the offseason. However, it’s been a complete disaster up to now and led to one major alteration at the bye week.

Reich confirmed last week that he’d handed off play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. This was universally well-received by the fanbase thanks to the coach’s growing reputation as a future man at the helm.

Brown came through the coaching ranks at Georgia before becoming a trusted ally of Sean McVay’s with the Los Angeles Rams. His previous experience working with tight ends provided a broader knowledge of offensive concepts and his leadership is something that’s always gone down a storm among players.

If Brown capitalizes on this opportunity and gets Carolina’s offense trending in the right direction under the guidance of rookie quarterback Bryce Young, it would be wise for the Washington Commanders to invite him in for an interview, That is, of course, if they thank Ron Rivera for his services and pay off the final year of his contract.

It’s only a matter of time before Brown becomes a head coach. Interest would only grow if he thrives with newfound responsibilities over the Panthers’ remaining 11 games, even if this might not be the flashiest hire when it’s all said and done.

Washington Post (paywall)

The Commanders just keep crumbling under pressure

In February at the NFL combine, Washington Commanders assistant running backs coach Jennifer King was featured on a panel highlighting women in the NFL when she mentioned the importance of instructing running backs to help pass-block — especially because “we play the Giants two times a year, and [defensive coordinator] Wink Martindale might [cover-zero blitz] you out at any moment.”

Eight months later, Martindale blitzed again and again until Washington wilted during Sunday’s 14-7 loss at MetLife Stadium. The Giants blitzed on 29 of 49 dropbacks (59.2 percent), the highest blitz rate a Washington quarterback has faced in a decade, according to the website TruMedia. But Martindale’s blitzes aren’t the story; they just produced acute symptoms of a broader illness that has plagued the Commanders all season.

“You work all week long on a game plan,” Howell said. “… It’s kind of hard, after the first few drives, to just say: ‘Screw it; we’re throwing our whole game plan away. We’re going to do something else.’ I thought our plan was fine; we’ve just got to do a better job of executing.”

The Athletic (paywall)

How Giants DC Wink Martindale made Sam Howell’s life miserable in win over Commanders

Eight of Washington’s 14 drives resulted in three-and-outs. Three others lasted four plays. The Commanders had more punts (seven) than completions (five) in the first half. They went 1-for-15 on third down in the game.

The Giants blitzed on 63.3 percent of Washington’s dropbacks, which was their second-highest blitz rate of the season (84.6 percent against the 49ers in Week 3).

The Commanders kept extra blockers in to protect, but they struggled to identify who would blitz and who would drop in coverage. Add in defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence registering a season-high eight pressures up the middle, and it’s no wonder that it was nearly impossible for Washington to operate.

Martindale didn’t relent, sending six rushers on Washington’s final three plays.

Commanders Wire

Commanders’ Rivera: We have found a QB who gives us an opportunity

What makes this season different than the other seasons for Ron Rivera here in Washington?

That was basically one of the questions Rivera was asked during his weekly Monday press conference.

Rivera, who has posted records of 7-9, 7-10 and 8-8-1 in Washington, responded, “Well, I think the biggest thing, more than anything else, is I think we have found a young quarterback that gives us an opportunity.”

In 2020, Rivera had a courageous but wounded Alex Smith and an inexperienced, immature Dwayne Haskins. In 2021, Rivera lost his starter Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first half of the first game and had to go with a backup, Taylor Heinicke the rest of the season. Carson Wentz hugely disappointed Rivera in 2022, and he turned back to Taylor Heinicke, who had his moments but disappointed down the stretch as well. So, he tried Wentz once more, and unfortunately, it was an even greater disappointment.

Well, ESPN’s Get UP morning show ran the clip of Allen. Host Mike Greenberg asked former Washington player, now analyst Ryan Clark for his thoughts, and RC flipped Allen’s moment into a laughfest.

“When you walk up to the dude in the locker room, and he got a do-rag on with sunglasses and a chain on with the open chest, you finna get some bleeps. You walk into expletives,” Clark responded jokingly. “This man looks like Sho’Nuff when this started. And he can’t hear your question because he got on Airpods.

“He don’t even know the question. He chose violence. The sheer audacity of the outfit says, ‘I don’t give no F’s.’”

There will be some who don’t like Ryan Clark mocking Jonathan Allen. The Commanders haven’t won since Allen came to the team in 2017. Washington hasn’t won more than eight games in any season and played in one playoff game since Allen arrived.

The Commanders’ season is at risk of going off the rails. Trade rumors surfaced about two of its premier defensive players, Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Change needs to happen, or there will be more reactions like Allen’s.

Podcasts & videos

The TEAM 980 | SNIDER: Time for the Commanders’ rainmaker to exit

Locked on Commanders: Washington Commanders Sam Howell Struggles, Early Defensive Woes, Bad Coaching Lead to Fourth Loss