A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders, the NFC East and the NFL in general
Commanders links
Articles
Washington Post (paywall)
The pros and cons of trading Chase Young or Montez Sweat
In evaluating offers, Rivera must juggle competing interests. He is incentivized to keep all the talent he can because, as he has acknowledged, new team owner Josh Harris could fire him. No matter how rich the trade package, a 2024 draft pick will not help Rivera win this season.
But if a team believed Sweat or Young was the final piece of a championship roster — if it were willing to offer multiple draft picks or one in the first three rounds — then the deal might be too good to pass up. Turning down a great offer (or failing to search hard enough for one) could cast doubt on Rivera’s judgment.
The case for a trade
With the salary cap, it’s practically impossible to keep both for the long term. Strike now and guarantee a return. It’s not as if losing Sweat or Young would be a crippling blow to an elite defense; the unit is tied for 25th in expected points added per play (-0.02) and ranks 28th in points allowed per game (25.1).
The case against a trade
It’s hard to acquire elite talent. Even though Sweat and Young have been inconsistent, their impact shows up in places other than the box score. Opponents account for them with chips and double teams, which can help create one-on-ones inside for Payne and Allen.
The defense isn’t bad because of Young or Sweat. In 2021, their freelance rushes were a problem, but this year, they have been more disciplined and the issues are mostly with the back seven, which is prone to blow coverages and miss tackles. That’s on coordinator Jack Del Rio and his coaches. Trading Young or Sweat would be misplacing the blame and giving up on a player who could be part of the solution.
The Athletic (paywall)
Assessing Ron Rivera’s NFL trade deadline dilemma with a former GM: Sell or hold?
“It’s convoluted,” said The Athletic’s Randy Mueller, a former NFL general manager and executive of the year.
That’s not a jab at the organization in this post-Dan Snyder era, although the former owner’s choices on multiple fronts played a part in the present roster-building dilemma. There are justifiable arguments for selling or holding, depending on how one sees the landscape.
At 3-4, the Commanders are again in the league’s middle without a definitive arrow pointing in either direction. Granted, with three hellscape losses on the resume, only dreamers can see a world where trading future assets for immediate help would work.
Head coach Ron Rivera, 25-31-1 over three-plus seasons with Washington, is likely fighting to retain his job. Well actually, jobs, seeing as he also has the final say over personnel moves. That power, granted by Snyder, put one person in charge of decisions that often included opposing perspectives: near-term (coach) and big-picture (front office).
It’s unclear what approach new owner Josh Harris seeks. Harris, who took control of his childhood team on the eve of training camp, has seemingly kept his distance from the football meetings. At some point, his voice will be required when the team decides which of its numerous 2024 free agents it wishes to retain.
“Their two defensive ends are on everybody’s mind,” Mueller said. “What do they do there? I don’t know, but I would have a hard time moving one of them unless you’re just sure they’re not going to be part of the fix.”
“If I’m Ron — and he’s the top decision-maker — I’d have a hard time getting rid of anyone at this point,” Mueller said. “That’s a real factor with the organization on a different timeline.”
ESPN
Commanders’ early woes leading to late headaches
The defense allows too many big plays. The offense takes too many sacks. The team makes too many mistakes. And their inability to start fast in games remains the crucial reason why another season has started poorly.
They excel at digging holes but struggle to emerge from them. That’s been the case under coach Ron Rivera and in nearly every game this season. It’s a big reason why they’re 3-4 and have lost four of their past five heading into Sunday’s game against the 6-1 Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. ET, Fox).
“It’s hard to play catch-up,” Washington receiver Terry McLaurin said.
Washington has trailed at halftime in five of their seven games. The Commanders rallied to win the first two — against the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos — but have lost the last three. They nearly overcame a 27-3 halftime deficit against the Chicago Bears but ultimately lost 40-20.
They have led at halftime in two games — a 34-31 overtime loss at Philadelphia and in a 24-16 win at the Atlanta Falcons — and have been outscored 111-61 in the first two quarters overall.
“Just got to come out of the gate better. Start faster and just execute better in the first half,” quarterback Sam Howell said.
Washington’s defense has allowed 27 points — three touchdowns and two field goals — on the opening drive of the game. Those five scores allowed on the first series match the Commanders’ season total in 2022 when they allowed two touchdowns.
The Commanders’ offense has been equally unproductive. They have scored 10 points on their first possession. In the first quarter of games, Washington ranks 26th in yards gained, 23rd in points per game and 31st in yards per carry (3.1). Howell ranks 28th in first-half QBR.
On third down, they have allowed a 76.9% conversion rate on the opening drive. The offense has converted just 33.3% of their own.
Riggo’s Rag
9 harsh Commanders reality checks after Week 7 drubbing at the NY Giants
It’s time to face some harsh realities…
Commanders draft strategy needs a shake-up
After a couple of very productive draft classes early in his tenure, Ron Rivera – and whoever has been serving as general manager – has had a much tougher go of it lately. The 2023 draft class has contributed almost nothing to the team this year.
With the regression of 2022 first-round wide receiver Jahan Dotson, last year’s class is looking a lot less attractive. This is something that will no doubt play a role in whether Josh Harris’ ownership group implements changes or moves forward with Rivera at the helm.
Commanders’ 2023 free agency was a disaster
The same applies to free-agent pick-ups.
In 2020, the Washington Commanders made a number of seemingly minor moves in free agency that bore great fruit. Players like Ronald Darby, Kevin Pierre Louis, and J.D. McKissic played valuable minutes for a division-winning team.
Since that profitable period of recruitment, the results have been continually less impressive. This year’s free-agent class – featuring three starters in Andrew Wylie, Nick Gates, and Cody Barton – may be the worst.
None of these players is performing at an above-average level. With no young offensive linemen or linebackers seeming able to step in thanks to the aforementioned failure to draft effectively from the college ranks, the Commanders look to be trapped in mediocrity until next season.
At the very least…
Commanders.com
Commanders looking to push through ‘frustration,’ get ready for Eagles
It’s hard to pin down one reason why a Commanders team that is objectively deep in talent at certain positions is not performing up to expectations, because there are a few culprits at the root of the problem.
The most obvious can be found on offense. The Commanders are giving up sacks at a historic rate with Howell being taken down 40 times in seven games. That puts them on pace for 96 this season, which would be an NFL record that no one wants to be associated with.
The sacks are one of the main reasons why Washington is 20th in points per game and 22nd in average yardage, but there are several causes for that problem as well. It might be easy to put the blame on the offensive line — after giving up a sack on the second offensive play of the day against the Giants, they certainly own some of it — but it’s an issue that a few players are responsible for.
The other problem is that Washington has been unable to sustain drives. They have the second-worst third-down conversion rate in the league, and over the last three games, they’ve ranked last by converting just 24.32% of their third downs.
So, even though the Commanders were technically in the game against the Giants, they couldn’t muster a response for most of the day because they were 1-of-15 in third down scenarios.
Podcasts & videos
Ref the District: Will Chase or Montez be traded & PFF Analyst Nick Akridge joins to talk grades 24 Oct DCU
️LFG
Commanders trade deadline/fixing things mailbag. What I’m hearing on Chase Young, plans. Why making moves is Ron Rivera’s best bet. OL tweaks.
@HousefromDC sees the sunshine w/ the Commanders season, RFK site, and fun on tap for the Wizards https://t.co/eKaIYbI3Fr
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) October 24, 2023
JUNKIES: Doc Walker on what went wrong Sunday, and all season, for Commanders
Locked on Commanders: Washington Commanders Eric Bieniemy and Sam Howell Blame Discussion | Offensive Line | Ron Rivera
NFC East links
ESPN
Can Kevin Byard boost the Eagles secondary?
Grade for the Eagles: A-
The Eagles just upgraded, again. Philadelphia is banged up at safety and played the Dolphins on Sunday night without either of their Week 1 starters — Justin Evans (on IR with a knee injury) and Reed Blankenship (ribs). Byard, a 30-year-old two-time All-Pro, will presumably pair up with Blankenship once the latter is healthy.
Nearest defender statistics are particularly noisy for safeties, but what we see from Byard is strong. This season he has allowed 0.5 yards per coverage snap and minus-1.2 EPA — both above average for the position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. While the sample is small, it’s consistent throughout his career — he’s averaged 0.5 yards per coverage snap since 2016 and has amassed minus-67 total EPA. By comparison, Edmunds, who is being sent to Tennessee in the deal, has career averages of 0.7 yards per coverage snap (average) and plus-37 total EPA allowed (worse than average) over his career. Pair the numbers together with Byard’s strong reputation — including two All-Pro nods — and we’re confident Philadelphia is improving via this deal. Byard is also incredibly durable, having never missed a game in eight seasons.
Philadelphia currently ranks 12th in EPA per play on defense, so there is room to improve.
The Eagles get Byard for cheap money-wise, with about $2.4 million remaining in salary due in 2023, and $13.6 million in non-guaranteed money for 2024. Byard is 30. The Eagles might not want to pay that price next year depending on how this season goes, but it’s nice to have the option.
Given the Eagles’ current status as championship contenders, improving at one of the few spots on this roster that needs help in exchange for a pair of Day 3 draft picks seems like a strong and worthwhile choice.
Pro Football Talk
Jerry Jones says Cowboys in “upper echelon” of NFL
“Well, we belong in the upper echelons,” Jones said on his weekly radio on 105.3 The Fan. “I’m not going to say we belong on the field with San Fran, and we haven’t played Philly, but we’ve anticipated Philadelphia being what they look like. I don’t want to go that far, but we’re in the upper echelon.”
The Cowboys’ victories are over the Giants, Jets, Patriots and Chargers, teams with a combined 9-17 record. The Cowboys’ losses were blowouts to the Cardinals (28-16) — Arizona’s only victory in seven games — and the 49ers (42-10).
The Cowboys, of course, are trying to get back to where they haven’t been since 1995. That was their last NFC Championship Game appearance and last Super Bowl win.
Despite some injuries that have created holes in their roster, Jones said he is not looking to initiate trade talks. The Cowboys won’t get a gauge on whether they have closed the gap on the defending NFC East champion Eagles until after the trade deadline when the teams play for the first time this season.
NFL league links
Articles
Washington Post (paywall)
Barely anyone is returning NFL kickoffs. An overhaul could be coming.
League officials say they are not satisfied with the early-season results of the temporary measure they implemented last offseason — awarding a touchback on a fair catch of a kickoff inside the 25-yard line — to make kickoffs safer and keep them in the game.
The move has had the desired player-safety effects, they say. Jeff Miller, the NFL’s executive vice president of communications, public affairs and policy, said at last week’s league meeting in New York that only one player had suffered a concussion on a kickoff to that point of the season.
But with the threat of a touchback on a fair catch, teams apparently have decided to have their kickers send the ball through the end zone for a touchback, without risking a long return. Only 18 percent of kickoffs this season have been returned (191 returns among 1,059 kickoffs). Last season, about 38 percent of kickoffs were returned, and league leaders previously said they expected around 31 percent to be returned this season.
“Nobody in the league would say that’s successful [or] that that’s the aim,” Atlanta Falcons team president Rich McKay, the chairman of the NFL competition committee, said last week. “It was what we knew was going to happen. When we went to the college rule, which was in essence allowing a fair catch, then obviously the response back was not the squib kick. … It was to kick it through the end zone. So we’ve achieved the one thing we need to achieve, which is take a play that had a high collision rate and reduce the concussions that we’re having on that play. But we’ve done it, again, by making the play a little more ceremonial than it should be.”