Baltimore Sports Today

Baltimore Sports News Continuously Updated

Daily Slop – 3 Oct 24: Commanders players ignore outside noise as struggling Browns come to town

by

Washington Commanders v Cincinnati Bengals
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

A collection of articles, podcasts & tweets from around the web to keep you in touch with the Commanders, the NFC East and the NFL in general

Commanders links

Articles

Bullock’s Film Room (subscription)

Commanders defense shows signs of improvement against Cardinals

Breaking down the moderate signs of improvement from the Commanders defense

The Commanders defense has been very bad to start the season and they had their issues in this game too, but this was the first week we started to see some real improvements from that side of the ball. So what changed and how have they corrected some issues? Let’s start with solving some basic issues in coverage.

Crossing routes are tough to defend in man coverage, once a receiver gets that step inside, it’s very hard for a defender to regain leverage without having outstanding speed. This led to multiple receivers getting big gains on crossing routes against Washington in the first few weeks of the season. So, the solution the Commanders came up with against the Cardinals is a very basic but effective one.

Here’s an example of what many would refer to as Cover-1 Plug or Hole. It’s Cover-1, which is man coverage across the board with a single deep safety in the middle of the field. However, to help combat crossing routes, the Commanders also have linebacker Bobby Wagner playing as the “plugger” or “hole player”. He’s essentially in an underneath zone coverage in the middle of the field and is there to scan for crossing routes in order to cut them off.

We can see on this play, the Cardinals run a nice concept on third and short. The tight end runs a basic cross while the outside receiver motions in short before running a shallow cross. The slot receiver runs a pivot route, faking a break out to the flat before pivoting back inside towards the middle of the field. The idea of this concept is to create multiple crossing routes against man coverage while also giving a high-low read against zone coverages. You can see the issue cornerback Mike Sainristil has against the shallow cross. He’s out leveraged the moment the receiver goes in motion and never manages to get back in phase with the receiver.

If the Commanders just played pure man coverage and blitzed everyone else, that receiver would have run wide open on his shallow cross much like many other receivers have this season. But here, they correct that issue by having Wagner in the hole. He scans across the field looking for crossing routes and spots the receiver working on the shallow cross. He immediately steps up and attaches to the shallow cross, cutting off the receivers path and taking it away from the quarterback. This forces Kyler Murray to reset and work to his next option, which is the pivot route from the slot receiver. Noah Igbinoghene does a great job staying with the route and undercutting it to break up the pass, getting the Commanders off the field on third down.

It might seem like a simple and easy fix because it is one. But it’s one the Commanders hadn’t been using much because they wanted to allow that hole player to blitz more frequently rather than play coverage. With the amount of issues they were having with crossing routes though, this became an obvious answer for the Commanders to implement and it clearly was effective.

FTN

Washington Commanders: DVOA vs. EPA

One thing I wanted to address is the difference between publicly available EPA (Expected Points Added) stats and DVOA for the Washington Commanders. You may have seen notes all over the Internet that the Commanders are lapping the field in offensive EPA this season, one of the best offenses ever rated by EPA through four games. Yet in DVOA, Washington isn’t even No. 1! Baltimore is on top, with Washington as the No. 2 offense so far. I went to investigate the differences a little bit.

There are three things that seem to be going on here.

1) There seems to be a really big difference in how EPA and DVOA are judging the Washington Commanders on first downs. Both stats agree that the Commanders are better on second and third downs than on first downs. The Commanders rank No. 1 in both stats for third downs. On second downs, the Commanders are second in DVOA and first in EPA. However, there’s a huge difference on first downs, where the Commanders rank only 25th in DVOA but 11th in EPA.

What’s interesting is that both stats come out with a 45% success rate on first down, using different definitions. But the overall rank is much difference. It looks to be mostly about passing plays, as the Commanders are ninth in pass EPA but 17th in pass DVOA on first downs. It also may be connected to the difference in how EPA and DVOA treat plays based on time remaining and score in the second half of games. In the first half of games, the Commanders are 18th in EPA on first downs but 25th in DVOA. The gap is much larger in the second half of games, with the Commanders ranking ninth in EPA on first downs but 21st in DVOA.

2) Opponent adjustments are playing a role, as the Commanders’ schedule of opposing defenses ranks 27th so far this season.

3) EPA stats consider the change in EPA on every play, which means they only penalize fumbles that are lost to the defense and they incorporate the specific results of interception returns. DVOA stats, on the other hand, try to filter out the effects of luck on these plays. Fumbles are all penalized based on the type of fumble, no matter which team makes the recovery. Interceptions are penalized based on the average return of an interception considering the line of scrimmage and the length of the pass. And it turns out that the Commanders have recovered all four of their own fumbles this year, and Jayden Daniels’ only interception happened to have no return at all. So these plays will all be penalized much more in DVOA than in EPA. And it also turns out that four of these five plays were on first downs, so that helps explain that difference a little bit.

ESPN

Commanders’ Jayden Daniels ‘staying level-headed’ amid success

In just four games, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has set multiple NFL records and helped revive a long-struggling franchise. His No. 5 jersey has even become a top seller.

But he doesn’t see himself as anything other than a guy entering his fifth game.

“I’m still a rookie,” Daniels said.

In the spring, a reporter asked him about the benefits of being a “star” quarterback. Daniels shot that down, saying he hadn’t done anything yet. When asked Wednesday whether he could at least be referred to as a “star rookie,” Daniels made it clear he wasn’t interested in labels.

“You can say whatever you want,” Daniels said. “I’m still a rookie in my eyes, so I let everybody else do the talking for me. I don’t get caught up in that stuff. But man, it’s just a blessing. Just the preparation, obviously the team believing in me and we’re going out there and competing every Sunday.”

Commanders.com

Practice notes | Commanders not buying into their own hype

All the positive noise surrounding the team is a new sensation for the players, several of whom were around for the rough patches of previous seasons. The vibes are appropriately high in the locker room as the Commanders look for their first 4-1 start since 2008, but don’t mistake that for anyone letting the fanfare get to them.

“None of that matters,” said quarterback Jayden Daniels. “That was last week’s stuff.”

It’s clear that Daniels is having fun when he’s on the field as he flashes a grin on scrambles and when he’s on the sideline, but you won’t hear him bragging about his success.

“We won,” Daniels said to open his postgame press conference in Arizona. “It went pretty well.”

[DT Jonathan] Allen, a 2017 first-round pick, is familiar with how quickly things can change in the NFL. In 2018, Allen’s second season, Washington started the year with a 6-3 record before losing six of their last seven games and finishing 7-9. There were some extenuating factors behind that slump, like Alex Smith suffering a leg injury that nearly killed him, but Allen’s point still stands; now is not the time to get enamored with all the positive vibes coming from outside the team.

“We’re not really super focused on what the media has to say about us,” Allen said. “We’re just focused on what we have to do to get better, day in and day out.”

As the Commanders get ready for a slate of games that includes three home games (one of their road games is against the Baltimore Ravens), and five opponents with records of .500 or less, [S Jeremy] Reaves doesn’t want himself or his teammates to buy into the hype, or as he called it, drinking the Kool-Aid.

“When it’s good, everybody’s patting you on the back,” Reaves said. “You kind of just gotta stay even keeled, because just as quickly as people will pat you on the back, when you blow it, it’s like, ‘Oh, I knew those guys would do that.’ So, you just gotta keep that even keeled mindset of just doing that work every day and trying to be the best at what you do every day.”

Pro Football Focus

How Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels continued dominating in Week 4

One of the biggest questions coming out of college was how well Daniels could consistently attack the middle of the field. So far, he has passed that test with flying colors. On throws between the numbers, Daniels went 8-for-10 for 101 yards and earned an 81.2 passing grade on Sunday. For the season, his 77.9 passing grade on such throws ranks ninth in the NFL.

In the play above, Daniels initially didn’t like the “Hank” concept to the short side of the field and quickly recognized that with man coverage, the spacing concept on the other side would provide the answer.

He calmly reset and fired a missile to Luke McCaffrey for a big gain on second-and-15. The fact that he could get to the backside of his read so efficiently against a five-man rush in just his fourth NFL start is incredibly impressive. Successfully and consistently attacking the middle of the field is a clear sign of a quarterback in complete control.

On the Commanders’ two-point conversion to go up 21, Daniels showcased his anticipation in attacking the middle of the field again.

On this play, Washington ran a mesh concept against zone coverage in the red zone. Daniels read the play low-to-high, starting with the underneath crossers and then working up.

As expected against zone coverage, the crossers were covered, so Daniels looked to the next level. He quickly identified that the safety, chasing the underneath crosser, wouldn’t be able to turn in time to pick up Zach Ertz at the back of the end zone.

Daniels threw the ball with perfect anticipation, releasing it well before Ertz cleared the defender, and connected for the score to put the Commanders up by three touchdowns, effectively sealing the game.

Pro Football Focus

Introducing Sideline-Passing Grade: The NFL’s best quarterbacks at targeting players down the sideline

What is a Sideline-Passing Grade?

This metric evaluates all throws a quarterback attempts within two yards of the sidelines to determine who performs best in that area. It also accounts for plays nullified by penalties.


Upcoming opponent

Dawgs by Nature

Browns have more to worry about than just Jayden Daniels against Washington

In addition to contending with the Commanders dynamic rookie QB, the defense may also have its hands full against Washington’s run game.

While Cleveland’s defense may have its hands full with Daniels, they can’t ignore Washington’s run game as the Commanders are currently among the top 5 in the league in runs of 10-plus yards, rushing touchdowns (10), yards per carry (5.1), and rushing first downs.

The Browns, on the other hand, are coming off a game where the defense allowed the Las Vegas Raiders to rush for 152 yards – just one yard less than the Raiders had in the first three games combined. The Browns also allowed five different players to have runs of 10 yards or more against Las Vegas and have allowed 16 runs of 10-plus yards on the season.

One area that the Browns can work on is actually tackling the ball carrier, as their 20 missed tackles for almost 100 extra yards lead the league, according to Next Gen Stats.

Dawgs by Nature

Browns offense: Failing to convert on critical downs is a big issue

The top offenses in the league so far in 2024 in terms of 3rd down conversion rate are:

  1. Washington Commanders – 53.49%
  2. New Orleans Saints – 53.19%
  3. New York Jets – 46.30%
  4. Detroit Lions – 45.83%
  5. San Francisco 49ers – 44.68%

They have a combined record of 12-8 with no single team being under the .500 mark.

They’re also combining for an average of 26.6 points per game on offense this season as well as averaging 3 offensive touchdowns per game.

As of right now the Browns are only converting 20.75% on 3rd downs (last in the NFL), averaging 16.5 points per game (27th in NFL), and averaging 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game (23rd in NFL).

Podcasts & videos

Jayden Daniels – The Greatest Start Ever To A Rookie Season

NFC East links

Bleeding Green Nation

Rating levels of concern for the Eagles heading into the bye

Rating various Eagles concerns on a scale of 0-10.

The knee jerk reaction following a loss like the Eagles’ 33-16 defeat to the Buccaneers is to fire off enraged broadsides against everyone and everything having to do with the mess we saw in Tampa last Sunday, not because it was just one awful game, but because in many respects, the 2024 Eagles seem to have picked up where the ‘23 version left off.

Since their disastrous 42-19 loss to the 49ers on December 3rd, the Eagles have been outscored 310-218 over their last 11 games, an average defeat of 28-20. Despite the additions of new coordinators Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio, both sides of the ball look remarkably similar, not just in terms of production (certainly the absence of A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and Lane Johnson hurt a lot last week) but also in terms of scheme and creativity. The quarterback continues to offer more turnovers than a going-out-of-business bakery, and the defense appears exposed against modern NFL offenses.

But caveats abound. The travel schedule has been brutal through four games. An opener in Brazil, then a Monday night game, then a short week on the road to New Orleans, followed by another road game in 100 degree heat in Tampa. It would be irresponsible to not acknowledge those extenuating circumstances. That said, there are a number of areas of this team to be concerned about heading into this early-season bye. Below are my levels of concern, on a scale of 0-10 (from least to most).

Nick Sirianni – 9

If there is a problem with the head coach, the rest of the team becomes difficult to judge.

[R]ight now, it seems clear some on the team, especially the quarterback, doesn’t believe Sirianni has the answers to get them back to respectability.

The Eagles were not ready to play Sunday in any facet of the game. Effort was lacking. The offense had no cohesion. There was no alternate game plan without A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith in the lineup. Sirianni did not get an opportunity to screw up a 4th down call in Tampa because it was 24-0 before the team could catch its breath. He has supposedly given up control of the offense to Kellen Moore, but honestly, it looks as if Moore is running the Sirianni offense with some minor and ineffective dress-ups most of the time.

As long as Sirianni is in charge, the new coordinators will be limited in how much influence they can wield on the team as a whole. The players will continue to have that doubt that they can win. They will try to do too much.

The Culture – 9

In his post-game press conference, Hurts was asked if, as the two leaders of the team, he and Sirianni get together to talk about a vision and a message for the team in order to get them through times like these, to which Hurts responded, “We have our moments.”

It’s just the latest in a string of cryptic comments made by Hurts regarding his head coach.

Sirianni seems to be going out of his way to avoid placing any public blame on Hurts, while Hurts seems to be going out of his way to avoid saying anything nice about his head coach.

The status quo is simply unsustainable.

Blogging the Boys

The McCarthy Chronicles: Examining the Cowboys’ penalty problem

The Cowboys have a very serious penalty issue.

Penalties have been an issue, and a talking point, since the 2021 season. That year, the Cowboys led the league in penalties, and Connor Williams was often singled out as the most penalized player in the league. Dallas has remained in the top five in penalties since then, creating a constant through-line of undisciplined play under McCarthy.


Pro Football Focus

2024 NFL offensive line rankings ahead of Week 5

7. Philadelphia Eagles (Down 2)

Projected starters heading into bye:

The Eagles’ offensive line had an uncharacteristic day against the Tampa Bay defense in Week 3, especially in pass protection. The unit allowed 17 pressures — including five sacks — on 37 dropbacks, leading to a 70.3 PFF pass-blocking efficiency score, which was the second-lowest mark in the NFL in Week 4 and the lowest by an Eagles offensive line since Week 9 of last season.

The main culprit was right tackle Fred Johnson, who replaced the injured Lane Johnson in the lineup. He was responsible for 11 pressures and a 28.9% pressure rate, the worst clip among all offensive linemen in Week 4.

Best player: Jordan Mailata

Mailata has allowed eight pressures on 162 pass plays this season, and his 89.8 PFF pass-blocking grade leads all offensive tackles.

11. Washington Commanders (Up 2)

Projected Week 5 starters:

The Washington offensive line is doing an outstanding job of protecting rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels so far. The unit has allowed just 26 pressures — including one sack — on 139 pass plays this season. The Commanders’ resulting 90.3 PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating ranks second in the league.

Rookie left tackle Brandon Coleman played 20 pass-blocking snaps against Arizona and did not allow any pressure. His 86.6 PFF pass-blocking grade ranked fourth among offensive tackles in Week 4.

Best player: Sam Cosmi

Cosmi has allowed pressure on just 3.4% of pass plays this season — the best rate of his career.

12. Dallas Cowboys (Down 3)

Projected Week 5 starters:

Right guard Zack Martin once again put together a very strong game, not allowing a single pressure in Dallas’ Week 4 win over the Giants. Over the past two weeks, he has earned an 85.0 PFF pass-blocking grade, which ranks fifth among guards.

Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton continues to struggle. He has surrendered four sacks over the first four games, tied for the third most among offensive tackles, and his 14 pressures allowed are tied for the sixth most.

Best player: Tyler Smith

Smith’s 82.2 PFF pass-blocking grade this season is a career-high mark and ranks third among guards.

22. New York Giants (Up 4)

Projected Week 5 starters:

New York’s ball carriers averaged just 0.1 rushing yards before contact in Week 4, the third-lowest average in the NFL, behind a shaky run-blocking unit.

The Giants are the only NFL team after four weeks to have had five starting offensive linemen on the field for all plays. Thomas, Runyan, Schmitz, Van Roten and Eluemunor were on the field for 265 of New York’s offensive snaps this season.

Best player: Andrew Thomas

Thomas is having a somewhat disappointing season so far, as he ranks just 21st among offensive tackles in PFF overall grade (72.1) while allowing pressure on 5.9% of pass plays — his worst rate since his rookie season.

NFL league links

Articles

Pro Football Focus

Anchor Rate: The NFL’s best pass-blockers against the bull rush through four weeks

A couple of weeks ago, we introduced a metric we coined “Anchor Rate,” which measures how often an offensive lineman faces a bull rush and comes out on top.

Here is how the league’s pass-blockers have fared through four weeks of action:


Pro Football Focus

2024 NFL quarterback rankings ahead of Week 5

Quarterback is the most important position on the field, but we can often get stuck in their most recent blunders or successes, making it difficult to come up with an objective ranking.

In this quarterback rankings breakdown, we’ve evaluated the top performers based on PFF passing grades. Using insights from Premium Stats, we’ll also present a variety of key grades beyond passing grade, including grades under pressure, from a clean pocket, against the blitz, using play action and more.


Front Office Sports

NFL Ratings Surge in September With Chiefs in Four of Top Five Games

In September, NFL games averaged 17.9 million viewers (not including the Week 1 Peacock exclusive), which is up 4% compared to the first four weeks of the 2023 season. The NFL was up 10% year over year after three weeks. That was its best average audience since 2015, which is still the case through four weeks.

The most-watched game of Week 4 was Kansas City’s 17–10 win over the Chargers, which drew 24.2 million viewers on CBS and booted Cowboys-Browns out of the five highest NFL audiences this season. All four Chiefs broadcasts are now in the top five.