The Washington Commanders have finally parted ways with Brian Robinson, clearing the way for Jacory Croskey-Merritt to be a legitimate fantasy football option as the team’s primary starting running back. Selected late in the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft, the Arizona product is one of the most fascinating case studies in recent memory. The team clearly believes he’s a starting-caliber running back, but just about every metric out there suggests he won’t succeed in this projected role. So, who is correct, and when should you draft him?
Fantasy Football: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Outlook After Brian Robinson’s Departure
Jacory Croskey-Merritt The Player
Before discussing his fit on the team, we must first talk about Jacory Croskey-Merritt the player, starting with his tape. Washington selected Croskey-Merritt with the 29th pick in the seventh round, but he wasn’t supposed to slip that far. NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein (who is remarkably good at projecting running backs) gave him a fifth-round grade, saying he was a good backup with the potential to develop into a starter.
The biggest selling point for Croskey-Merritt coming out of college was his ability to quickly accelerate, capitalize on tight holes, and make his way upfield while plowing over smaller defenders. However, he did next to nothing in the passing game, which clearly caps his ceiling. If you’re looking for a professional comp based on film, he plays a bit like a smaller LeGarrette Blount. However, while Blount weighed 247 pounds, Croskey-Merritt is only 206.
The Metrics
Studying the film is important, but it’s not the only way to project NFL success. Draft capital is the most predictive metric for fantasy football, and seventh-round picks like Jacory Croskey-Merritt rarely work out at the professional level. Even if you use Zierlein’s grade, fifth-round picks still struggle to find consistent work in the NFL.
Additionally, Croskey-Merritt’s collegiate production does not suggest the Commanders found a late-round gem. The running back first “broke out” with Alabama State in the 2022 season, when he recorded 526 rushing yards on 140 carries. While this was enough to lead the team, future NFL running backs shouldn’t be splitting snaps with guys like Santo Dunn in their age-21 season.
Speaking of age, Croskey-Merritt is already 24. Early declares tend to have much better careers than their late-declare counterparts, and Croskey-Merritt is older than the average late declare. From a dynasty standpoint, running backs tend to slow down after their age-27 season, so even if he hits, he won’t have a long shelf life.
Reasons For Hope
Jacory Croskey-Merritt does not have the film, draft capital, or collegiate production to suggest fantasy football dominance is in his future, but he has the trust of the coaching staff. It’s one thing for coaches to speak highly of a rookie, but Dan Quinn and company effectively gave him the starting job when they parted ways with Brian Robinson.
Keep in mind, they had no reason to do this. This isn’t a Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison situation where Cook’s bloated contract forced a move. Robinson carried a $3.6 million cap hit, which is more than reasonable for a starting running back. Washington clearly believes Jacory Croskey-Merritt gives this team the best chance to win, which means opportunities will come his way.
Croskey-Merritt will start, but nobody should expect special production. Even with Robinson gone, Austin Ekeler is still in town and will receive almost all of the pass-catching work. This puts a clear cap on Croskey-Merritt’s ceiling, and he’ll probably need to get double-digit touchdowns to put up a top-20 finish.
Given his relatively low ceiling and nonexistent floor, Croskey-Merritt is not the type of player you should go crazy over. If you have a fantasy football coming up, Jacory Croskey-Merritt should probably go in the RB30-35 range. Anybody taking him before that is just falling for the hype and didn’t do enough research on the rookie.
Main Photo: Amber Searls – Imagn Images
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