In a sensible world, Roschon Johnson should be the smart DraftKings DFS pick here, he’s averaging 4.9 yards per touch and there’s no D’Onta Foreman for the Bears. But Chicago isn’t a sensible world at the moment. The defensive coordinator vanished a couple of weeks ago and now Chase Claypool is in exile. That’s not very sensible at all, but if the Bears coaching team was sensible they wouldn’t be where they are now, would they?
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Thursday Night Football Bears @ Commanders: Best DraftKings DFS Picks
DraftKings DFS Must Have – Khalil Herbert
Unbelievably, the Bears offense is ranked third in the league for yards per run. They’re level with the Eagles, the Chiefs, and the Jets averaging 4.7 yards per play. But only 39% of their total yards have come on the ground. It’s one thing when your offense isn’t working, it’s another thing completely when it IS working but you fail to identify what you’re good at.
Herbert is $5,600 on Thursday’s DraftKings DFS slate this week, making him $500 less than the Commanders Brian Robinson. But he averages nearly a yard more per touch than Robinson (5.5 to 4.8). If Luke Gesty sticks with the run and ignores any scoreboard pressure Herbert could have a big game.
Thursday Night’s Upward Trend – Dyami Brown
Brown was drafted in 2021 but hasn’t started a game since his rookie season. His NFL career has been sporadic so far. But with Sam Howell passing to nine different Commanders on Sunday it could be about to take off. Brown saw three targets against the Eagles. Only Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson saw more. But Brown averaged 25.5 yards per catch!
The 25 snaps Brown played on Sunday was his highest number since Week 6 in 2021. At $3,200 on this DraftKings DFS slate, he is the fifth most expensive receiver in this game. Against a Bears defense who have allowed more passing yards and passing touchdowns than the Eagles Brown could rack up the yards.
The Obvious DraftKings DFS Pick – Cole Kmet
The Commanders’ defense has the seventh-highest sack percentage in the league so far, so Justin Fields is going to have to get the ball out quickly. Kmet is really the only Bear you can pick on this slate, D.J. Moore is the only Bears catcher with a higher points average than Kmet. At $4,300 he is the most expensive tight end on Thursday night’s DraftKings DFS slate. But he does lead the Bears with 2 touchdowns.
The Even More Obvious Pick – Sam Howell
Is this the most obvious pick you’ve ever seen? Yes. But he’s criminally undervalued here at $5,500 and ignoring how I’ve obviously cursed him by highlighting him he should have a good game.
No defense has got to quarterbacks less than the Bears have this season, so Howell should be able to pick up yards on the ground as well as through the air. Eric Bienemy won’t hesitate to dial up some aggressive plays if he feels the Bears’ defense starting to struggle. Howell could break the 300 passing yards mark for the first time this season.
Commanders’ D/ST $3,700
Obvious? Yes. Expensive? Relatively. But well worth it. The Commanders’ D/ST is valued at $3,400 on the Thursday night DraftKings DFS slate.
The Bears’ struggles have been well documented and even though the run game is fine, Luke Getsy insists his quarterback does all the heavy lifting. As a result, Fields has been sacked 17 times. Even when he isn’t being crushed Fields just isn’t making good decisions. Through four games, the Commanders defense has five interceptions and Fields has thrown five of his own!
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