Flight of Fancy: Could Adam Peters and company pull off the draft trade of the century?

There’s just a little more than a month until the draft in late April. The Combine is over, Pro Days are underway, and we’re basically a week into free agency. There’s not much for fans to do other than to speculate, and nearly every front office move is scrutinized to death at this point.

The recent trade by the Vikings with the Texans is no exception to that chattering. On Friday, the Vikings acquired pick #23 and #232 (7th round) in exchange for #42 (2nd round), #188 (6th round), and their 2025 second round pick.

It took almost no time at all for discussion to start up around why the Vikings – whose current highest pick is #11 – would have traded up into the first round again. Unsurprisingly, most thought it indicated a desire to build the draft capital necessary to get closer to one of the top quarterbacks in the draft. Currently, Sam Darnold sits as Minnesota’s QB1.

“Which QB?” was the next question on most commenters minds. Former Lions’ QB and current NFL analyst, Dan Orlovsky, has pegged the Vikings as interested in North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

And Drake Maye is not likely to be available after pick three, given that the Bears, Commanders, and Patriots are all in desperate need of QB assistance. Maye is widely considered to be one of the top three QB options in this year’s draft, though opinions are all over the map, and seem to shift as quickly as the March weather in Washington DC.

That said, at least one prominent commentator thinks there could be an opportunity for Minnesota to slide into the top three – if the compensation is right.

And that is where this thought exercise begins: Minnesota, now loaded with draft capital, is looking to move into the top of the draft.

The Bears have made their bed, having just offloaded Justin Fields for pocket lint and some jelly beans. They’ll be sticking at number one for USC’s Caleb Williams. The Patriots, per Jeremiah, are sticking at number three, committed to grabbing either Maye or Jayden Daniels, whoever happens to fall past the number two pick.

That leaves Washington, and Adam Peters, in the driver’s seat if Minnesota is serious about having their pick of the best of the rest.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume that Peters and company have – at least – three QBs in their “second tier” behind Caleb Williams, and that they’re willing and able to work with any of those players, particularly if it means loading up on valuable draft capital to build their team.

It’s always difficult to say what the strengths of the next draft class are likely to be this far out, but at first glance, it appears it should be very deep in EDGE rushers and have some very solid WRs near the top of the class. The QB and OT prospects looks much less enticing in 2025 than they do this year. Something to keep in mind.

So let’s begin:

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Vikings Trade up to #2

Minnesota and their GM, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, decide they are all-in on Drake Maye, and make the call to Adam Peters about moving up.

Washington gives up: (all point totals are based on the Rich Hill trade chart values)

• #2 (717 pts)

Vikings give up:

• #11 (358 pts)
• #23 (245 pts)
• 2025 first round pick (157 pts)

760 pts total

This strikes me as a pretty “fair” offer for the Vikings to get, basically, from #11 to #2. I’ve discounted the 2025 pick by 50%, which some may argue is overly conservative. That said, I’m certain others will argue the deal still isn’t generous enough. The reality is, Minnesota has no second or third round draft capital in 2024, so there’s not much to add unless it’s coming from future years.

In any case, the 43 point delta here is still worth around the value of a late third round pick, as a sweetener.

This is a reasonable deal for Washington, but #11 is way too far back to be able to count on any quarterback, much less one of the top four.

Proceeding with this deal would need to be married to another in order to be truly realistic, and that second deal is below:

Washington Trades Back to #4

With the Chargers at #5 and the Giants – who desperately need a QB – at #6, trading with the Cardinals is the only way to assure that Washington is able to secure a top four quarterback.

What would that require? One proposal is below.

Arizona gives up:

• #4 (491 pts)

Washington gives up:

• #11 (358 pts)
• #36 (166 pts)

524 pts total

While this offer shows Arizona coming out on top by about the value of a high third round pick, it still feels a little light to me. If need be, I could see Washington adding in the pick it just got from the Seahawks as part of the Sam Howell trade, #78 (59 pts) to sweeten the deal.

At #11, Arizona is moved out of the upper echelon of non-QB talent, but is still very much in striking distance of a top wide receiver or tackle option, and secures additional, potent, Day 2 capital.

Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Conclusion

If Adam Peters were to orchestrate a series of trades along these lines, Washington would position itself incredibly for the future, securing:

• The ability to take a top four quarterback in the draft (JJ McCarthy?)
• An additional first round pick in 2024 (#23)
• An additional first round pick in 2025 from the Vikings, who aren’t likely to be very good next year.

Yes, the team would lose a second (and perhaps third) round pick this year, but those are easily offset by the addition of the firsts.

Could something like this come to fruition? Would it be good for Washington if it did? I’m sure there will be some strong opinions on those questions in the comments.