When it comes to tight ends, my experience is that fanbases – or at least the fanbase of the Washington Commanders – tend to have pretty unrealistic expectations about their developmental timelines and their statistical production, particularly once you get beyond the uncontested starter.
But, while that was my intuition, I wanted to take a closer look at the data, particularly on the heels of Bill’s 2023 over/under predictions for Washington’s tight ends.
With Logan Thomas the clear starting tight end on this team when he’s healthy, John Bates has been the team’s TE2 for the past couple of years. There was hope for Armani Rogers, and there’s some simmering excitement this offseason that Cole Turner might be able to step up this year, but – production wise – what’s a reasonable expectation for a second tight end in the NFL?
First we’ll start with a few questions:
The table below contains the top tight end for each team last year – in terms of receiving yards – as well as the tight end with the team’s second most receiving yards, and their other associated statistics.
In terms of the Commanders, what you’ll notice is that they didn’t stack up very well. As TE2, Bates had the 4th fewest receiving yards and 12th fewest receptions in the league last year. Washington’s passing difficulties are well understood – they had the 9th fewest team receptions in the league – and clearly impacted all of the potential receivers on the team, but even then, Bates’ numbers don’t look great. How do they compare to the average TE2?
In 2022, teams’ second tight ends delivered a fairly variable set of results, but on average, I think most fans’ would be surprised at how low they were. The average TE2 caught 19 passes for 194 yards, and 1 touchdown last year. On teams where they were substantially more productive than that, like the Titans, Ravens, and Colts, it seems to have largely been the product of relatively weak wide receiver groups and/or QB play.
While Bates’ 2022 performance fell below that threshold, his rookie performance, in 2021, exceeded it. His 2021 numbers, 20 receptions for 249 yards and 1 TD were among the best in his draft class, and they would have placed him 12th in receptions and 8th in yardage among TE2s in 2022.
As a tight end primarily drafted for his blocking proficiency, I’m not sure anyone ever expected Bates to be among the most productive tight ends in the league. However, during his initial – admittedly short – two season sample, he certainly appears capable of performing as a decent TE2 in the league, in terms of offensive performance.
And, I expect that if we see significantly improved quarterback play this year, Bates’ numbers could fairly easily move back into the range that we saw in 2021, which, looking across the rest of the league, would put him right in the middle of pack.