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The Eagles’ run-heavy approach won’t be sustainable in the playoffs
it’s fair to say that the Eagles have succeeded on offense by maximizing Barkley and the offensive line, and they have subsequently succeeded by minimizing Hurts. Hurts has 10 victories this season in which he completed 20 or fewer passes. Since 2000, he’s only the 28th quarterback to have double-digit wins in a season with 20 or fewer completions [per game]. The record is 12, shared by 2001 Kordell Stewart, 2004 Ben Roethlisberger and 2011 Alex Smith. There’s a good chance Hurts’ name joins those three by the end of the season.
Again, this is not a direct referendum on Hurts. It’s just further evidence that the Eagles do not need to ask him to do a lot as a passer in order to win games, and that they are consciously making that choice. The Eagles are a run-the-ball, shorten-the-game, play-great-defense sort of team — the kind of team we thought was going extinct in the modern NFL. This is not the model the Eagles followed in 2022, when they had a run rate over expectation of 3.0% on offense and had serious problems against the run on defense. This is a new approach.
The passing game has not just been minimized; it has also remained simple. Do you remember when Hurts was banging the drum coming into the season for more throws to the intermediate middle of the field? He had three such attempts in Week 1 and four such attempts in Week 2, and he hasn’t had more than two in a game since. On the season, 6.8% of Hurts’ throws have gone to the intermediate middle, up barely from last season’s 5.9% and squarely in line with his career average.
You might expect a team running the football as spectacularly as these Eagles to run a lot of play-action passes, but Hurts is using play-action at a lower rate for the third consecutive season. And you might expect a team running the football as splendidly as these Eagles to have a generally unpressured QB — because defensive linemen must first play the run — but Hurts’ pressure rate is the highest it has been since his rookie season. Both of these issues have the same root cause: Hurts simply does not play fast.
We can argue that Hurts has replaced some pass attempts with scrambles, and that those scrambles are largely valuable. But we must also note that Hurts has replaced some pass attempts with sacks, and that those sacks are very bad. Hurts’ sack rate of 9.0% is the worst of his career and worse than every other quarterback this season save for Deshaun Watson, Will Levis and Caleb Williams. Not the best company …
If the Eagles really are what it seems they’ve become over the past two months — a run-first team that minimizes the passing game and tries to manage the game script the whole way — then it’s worth wondering what they’d look like down multiple scores.
[T]he Eagles have played exactly two above-average defenses this season across their 13 opponents: the Browns (fifth) and Ravens (12th). By EPA, it’s the same thing; they’ve played the Packers (ninth) and Saints (16th, just barely making the cut).
This will change when they face the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh’s defense is actually good. But we might enter the 2024 playoffs not really knowing what it looks like when the Eagles and Hurts are forced to pass. Is Hurts capable of shouldering more of the offense down 11 points in the third quarter against a Lions team that wants nothing more than to sit on the football in the fourth?
Bleeding Green Nation
Eagles-Panthers Film Review: Jalen Hurts didn’t play well but this offense has greater issues than just the quarterback
Analyzing Philadelphia’s offensive performance from their Week 14 win over Carolina.
I’m going to be critical of Hurts in this game. I already have been. But please, anyone who thinks the passing game’s struggles fall solely on his shoulders is not watching every play. So many design issues in this game were unrelated to the play of Hurts. The Eagles tried to hit a few deep shots off of play-action in this game, and nearly every time, there was an issue with the Eagles’ pass protection. When you are throwing the football about 20-25 times a game, you cannot afford to have multiple plays that are blown up by bad pass protection. The issues in pass protection happened more than once and you can’t blame the quarterback for it.
the passing game is not good enough. Hurts wasn’t good enough [against the Panthers]. But he was not the only reason. There are so many things that can get better. It’s too easy to blame one individual for the flaws with the passing game.
NFL.com
Eagles’ Nick Sirianni confident in Jalen Hurts-A.J. Brown bond: ‘All you can do is judge what you see’
following the narrowest of victories over the three-win Carolina Panthers that included just 108 passing yards by Jalen Hurts, a touch of turbulence was introduced when the the friendship between Hurts and his top wideout, A.J. Brown, was called into question.
In the locker room following the win, Brown appeared frustrated, rightfully identifying “passing” as the area the offense needs to improve on and saying there isn’t much conversation between he and Hurts to rectify things in-game.
Defensive end Brandon Graham accidentally escalated things on Monday by telling SportsRadio 94WIP that the two were friends but “things have changed,” before later that night clarifying to ESPN’s Tim McManus that he assumed incorrectly about their friendship and made a mistake, also saying that he had apologized to both and didn’t intend to be divisive.
Blogging the Boys
Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown suffered torn ACL, MCL, and PCL to his right knee
The DeMarvion Overshown injury is devastating in every way.
The worst-case scenario for the Dallas Cowboys has happened when it comes to second-year linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. He went down with a knee injury in the Cowboys’ loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night, and the team feared that it was more than just a possible ACL tear. Indeed, that is that case as Overshown not only tore that ligament, but also his MCL and PCL as well according to ESPN’s Todd Archer. He will have surgery this week.
It usually takes at least a year for a player to fully recover from an ACL tear. However, with two other ligaments torn, the Cowboys will certainly be cautious with Overshown’s rehab, which could mean he won’t play again until 2026.
For Overshown, this is a devastating blow. He was playing fantastic football as he compiled 90 tackles (second on the Cowboys) with eight tackles for loss in 2024. The former third-round pick also logged five sacks, an interception, four pass breakups, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery in 13 games. With the way he was performing, a Pro Bowl nod would have likely been in consideration.
Blogging the Boys
Cowboys day after thoughts from Bengals loss: The frustration doesn’t end
I’ve asked this before but will do again: What is the best moment you have felt as a Dallas Cowboys fan since the team’s playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers in January?
It is a really difficult question to answer. Options include the KaVontae Turpin punt return against Cleveland or his kick return against Washington, or perhaps the Jalen Tolbert game-winner in Pittsburgh. That’s it.
The turn of each significant moment in the NFL calendar has been met with overwhelming frustration by this team, something that their two-game winning streak helped mask, which the loss uncovered and revealed to the light once more. Given that the loss also effectively ended their playoff hopes (however faint they were), it has now cast them into the worst place you can be for an entire month of action… meaningless football.
The Athletic (paywall)
Don’t dismiss idea of Mike McCarthy remaining Cowboys coach beyond this season
A little more than an hour before kickoff on the 105.3 The Fan pregame show, Pro Football Hall of Famer and former Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman said that he expects McCarthy to get a new contract.
“Short of Bill Belichick, I don’t know who you’re going to bring in that has a better resume,” said Aikman, who was calling the “Monday Night Football” game on ESPN. He then added that he views Dallas as a team that isn’t that far away, referencing the 12-win seasons each of the previous three years.
“I like the way this team is playing right now, even without their franchise quarterback,” Aikman said. “I sense that it’s a team that really believes in Mike McCarthy. I feel the locker room wants him back. I think he’s a really good football coach. I believe Jerry Jones thinks he’s a really good football coach, too.”
Aikman made it clear that he was speaking about where the team was before Monday night’s game. Perhaps a blowout loss to the Bengals would have had an impact on his comments, but he ended his answer about McCarthy by saying: “As we stand and talk right now, I expect Mike McCarthy to be back in 2025.”
Jones was asked about Aikman’s comments after the loss Monday night.
“Mike is an outstanding coach,” he said. “He has an outstanding record. He’s got great experience. A lot of what he’s about, some of the benefits that we’re having out there we’re gaining from the type of coach he is. There’s an old adage that when you start thinking about any coaches, you better give it a good look because he is one of the most outstanding. I think he just passed (Bill) Parcells in his win-loss percentage. I’ve spoken to that about any consideration I’m having. This was a hard one for him tonight, I’m sure.”
Jones has backed McCarthy every time he’s been asked about him this season, from saying in October that he’s not considering a coaching change to last month saying he’s not ruling out a contract extension.
While some might think it will be an easy decision, it actually could end up being quite difficult for Jones.
“I don’t weigh those things as far as tough or the degree of making them,” he said Monday night. “I always, in my role, make those decisions. They all have a lot of gravity to them, any of those kinds of decisions regarding coach, coaching staff, players, all of those things, I don’t want to call them tough. They are just very serious impactful decisions.”
Big Blue View
New York Giants roster moves: CB Tre Hawkins to IR in latest roster shuffle
The injuries keep piling up
The New York Giants, continuing to shuffler their roster largely due to injuries as their miserable 2024 season winds down, made a series of roster moves on Tuesday. Most notably, the Giants placed cornerback Tre Hawkins on injured reserve and signed cornerback Greg Stroman off the practice squad to take his place on the 53-man roster.
Hawkins, in his first start of the season on Sunday, recorded the Giants’ first interception in 12 games and their only one by a defensive back this season. He reportedly suffered a fractured lumbar spine during the game.
Stroman, 28, has been elevated from the practice squad three times this season. He has also played for Washington and the Chicago Bears during a six-year career.
Big Blue View
New York Giants’ odds of ‘earning’ the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft keep going up
Simulation puts Giants at nearly a 40% chance of getting the top pick
The 2-11 New York Giants now have a 38.9% chance of picking No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Drat, according to the latest simulation from Pro Football Network. The New England Patriots (18%) have the second-best chance at the first pick, with the Las Vegas Raiders No. 3 at 16.6%.
Per Tankathon, the Giants currently have the No. 2 overall pick with the Raiders at No. 1.
Here are PFN’s overall look at the teams with a chance at the top pick:
- New York Giants, 38.9%
- New England Patriots, 18.0%
- Las Vegas Raiders, 16.6%
- Carolina Panthers, 7.0%
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2025 NFL QB market: Nine teams that could make offseason moves
Let’s take a closer look at the teams that might be giving serious thought to making a change under center for Week 1 of the 2025 season. Most of these teams are out of the playoff picture, unsurprisingly, but some are locks to see their current quarterbacks on the field in January. And while a few are guaranteed to make changes, others still have tape to evaluate on their current guys between now and the end of the campaign.
The latter group might be the more interesting of the two, so I’m going to start with them (in no order). And it seems obvious to begin with a guy who might have made himself a lot of money Sunday. Sam Darnold’s future might not be with the Vikings, but if he can string together a few more games like the one we saw against the Falcons, could Minnesota be facing a surprisingly difficult decision about its starter next season?
Jump to a team with QB questions:
Pro Football Focus
Ranking the best NFL rookies after Week 14
Here are the highest-graded first-year players after 14 weeks of action.
1. QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
PFF Grade: 87.9
One of the most impressive aspects of Daniels’ rookie season has been his high floor. Since Week 2, he hasn’t recorded a single-game grade below 60.0. This consistency is aided by his ability to avoid mistakes, with a turnover-worthy play on just 1.7% of his dropbacks this season.
2. TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
PFF Grade: 86.2
Bowers has been an elite tight end as a rookie, earning an 89.2 PFF receiving grade. He has dropped just two of 89 catchable passes thrown his way and is averaging 2.12 yards per route run.
3. G Dominick Puni, San Francisco 49ers
PFF Grade: 85.2
Puni had the best game of his career in Sunday’s win over the Chicago Bears, earning a 93.4 PFF grade. This season, he has allowed 23 pressures on 476 pass-blocking snaps and has an 85.4 PFF run-blocking grade.
4. EDGE Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams
PFF Grade: 84.1
The highest-graded defensive rookie in the NFL this season, Verse has earned an 81.8 PFF pass-rushing grade. He has racked up 59 pressures, including 20 combined sacks and quarterback hits.