Survey results!!
Playoff seeding and confidence
In our poll of Hogs Haven readers this week, we asked about readers’ expectations for the 6th & 7th seeds in the upcoming NFC playoffs. The results provide some indication of fan thinking, if not complete clarity.
Overall confidence in the team remains at a high level. This week, 97% of fans surveyed expressed confidence in the Commanders’ direction.
As you can see from the chart below, confidence has been high all season, dipping below 92% on only two occasions: following the loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and following the loss to the Cowboys in Week 12.
That confidence extends its influence into the responses we received in this week’s poll, with the Commanders and Packers being the top two teams — in that order — picked to finish as the 6th & 7th seeds.
That may seem irrational or confusing, but it speaks to the complexity of projecting playoff seedings in the NFC this season, and to the faith that Commanders fans here at Hogs Haven have that the team will make the playoffs in one of those two spots, even if they aren’t crystal clear on which seeding it will be.
The seeming inference is that fans in the poll expect either the Vikings or Lions (whichever does not win the NFC North championship) to fill the 5th seed, with the Packers and Commanders rounding out the NFC wildcard teams.
Packers fans
Green Bay fans seem to agree — at least insofar as the Packers are concerned.
In the poll at Acme Packing Co. this week, half the fans said they expect the Packers to finish with a 3-1 record. If that ends up being true, then the only way the Commanders could achieve the #6 seed would be by finishing 4-0 in the final games of the regular season. The second-most likely outcome according to GB fans — a 2-2 finish by the Packers — would open up the opportunity for Washington to jump into the 6th seed by winning 3 out of the final 4 games on the schedule, while the perfect 4-0 finish predicted by 21% of Packers fans in the survey would likely limit the Commanders’ playoff opportunity to the 7th seed.
Sunday Night Football – a key NFC Week 15 Matchup
A key game this weekend is the matchup of the 9-4 Packers at the 8-5 Seahawks on Sunday Night Football — possibly the game of the week for NFC teams. The Packers sit in 3rd place in the NFC North behind the Lions and Vikings while the Seahawks are clinging to a half-game lead over the Rams, who beat the 49ers on Thursday night. With the Packers having a tough road game in Minnesota in Week 17, a win this Sunday is important to their playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Seahawks play that same Minnesota team a week earlier (Wk 16) and finish their season at the LA Rams. The outcome of this week’s Packers-Seahawks game will have a huge impact on the playoff hopes of both teams.
While the Packers fans didn’t cast votes to indicate which team they expected to win this week, Seahawks fans did. In addition, in a national email survey of fans of all 32 NFL teams, fans made predictions about the outcome of each of this week’s games, adjusted for point spreads.
Seahawks fans are confident in their team, with 73% predicting an outright victory over Green Bay.
Nationally, the sentiment went the other way, with 62% of NFL fans responding to the email survey backing the Packers, not only to win, but to cover the 3-point spread.
This is a game that Commanders fans will be watching with interest on Sunday night.
Commanders at Saints
Of course, the most interesting game for Commanders fans will be kicking off at 1pm in New Orleans, as the Commanders head to the Big Easy in an effort to add to the current 1-game ‘win streak’ and help cement their playoff position.
What did fans nationally think about this game in this week’s email survey?
Overall, 78% of fans surveyed believed that Washington will win by more than a touchdown to move to 9-5, which would guarantee the team’s first 9-win season since 2015, and only the third time since 2008 that the burgundy & gold will finish with more than 8 wins.
Washington enters the Week 15 game relatively healthy following a Week 14 bye. New Orleans, on the other hand, will be without starting QB Derek Carr, who was injured last Sunday. The Saints most productive offensive skill player, Taysom Hill, was recently placed on season-ending IR, and they lost starting WR Chris Olave earlier in the season.
It has been reported that the Saints will start 2nd-year backup Jake Haener, picked in the 4th round of the 2023 draft, at QB this week. He has appeared briefly in 7 games this season (he did not play at all in his rookie season) completing 14 of 29 attempts for 177 yards and a touchdown.
He will be facing a player he should be familiar with from the practice field. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore will be making his first game appearance in a Commanders uniform after being dealt to Washington from New Orleans at the trade deadline on November 5th. Lattimore will undoubtedly be motivated to play his first game as a Commander in the Superdome, and it should help him get up to speed ahead of next week’s game against key rival and the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles, whose receivers have had their way with the Washington secondary in recent games.
Speaking of the NFC East
While the 2024 season has been going well for the Eagles following a rocky 2-2 start, the same has not been true for the Giants and Cowboys. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Cowboys showing flickers of life despite numerous key injuries, while the Giants cut their starting QB, Daniel Jones, mid-season.
What prognostications were made about these three teams for Week 15 in the Reacts nationwide email survey?
An incredible 72% of fans nationally picked the Ravens to cover 14.5 points against New York! At this point the Giants are really only competing for the first pick in the 2025 draft. In the survey of Giants fans on Big Blue View this week, 74% of them predicted that the G-men will not win another game in the regular season, while 24% predicted a single win.
The nearly 50/50 split on the Cowboys-Panthers game can’t be encouraging for Dallas fans given that the spread is +2.5 against the 3-10 Carolina Panthers, who are currently on a 3-game losing streak. In this week’s survey of Dallas fans at Blogging the Boys, only 16% of fans said that they wanted head coach Mike McCarthy, who is in the final year of his contract with the Cowboys, back for the 2025 season.
Meanwhile, the near 50/50 split on the outcome of the Steelers-Eagles ‘Battle of Pennsylvania’ game should encourage Eagles fans since it has a point spread of +5.5 points for the Steelers.
The Eagles haven’t yet locked up the NFC East title, and a loss to the Steelers on Sunday would leave the door cracked for a surprise long-shot late-season run at the division title by Washington, who host the Eagles at Landover in Week 16.
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