Washington Commanders general manager Martin Mayhew spoke at the team’s pre-draft press conference last week and all but ruled out trading up.
While Mayhew didn’t say he would not trade up, he made it clear he preferred to move back because it’s a strategy that’s always worked well for him. Look no further than last year when the Commanders moved from No. 11 overall to No. 16, adding two additional picks. Washington moved down again, adding another pick, meaning the initial trade down netted the Commanders three additional selections.
The Commanders have multiple needs ahead of the 2023 NFL draft. Washington has done the most homework on the offensive linemen and cornerbacks.
Most mock drafts have the Commanders landing either an offensive lineman or cornerback in each of the first two rounds. However, sitting at No. 16, Washington likely doesn’t have a chance to either of the top two cornerback prospects [Devon Witherspoon & Christian Gonzalez], or the draft’s top three offensive tackles [Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson & Broderick Jones].
So, could Washington move up?
NFL analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com, named four trades that would be “win-win” for both sides in Thursday’s first round. Her top trade was the Commanders moving to No. 7 in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Washington receives:
- Round 1, 2023: No. 7 overall
Las Vegas receives:
- Round 1, 2023: No. 16 overall
- Round 2, 2023: No. 47
- Round 4, 2023: No. 118 (or a future fourth-rounder)
Frelund explains:
In the primary value of this move is in Washington’s ability to leapfrog ahead of Atlanta at No. 8 overall to select a quarterback — the versatility to also perhaps nab the first or second cornerback off the board (depending on Detroit’s move; my math suggests Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez have separated themselves from other CBs in this class, which is backed up by the front office execs and scouts I’ve surveyed) or the first offensive lineman at No. 7 is an added benefit. There’s belief that the Texans could pass on a quarterback at No. 2 — which could alter the trade price for QBs later on — and should the passer the Commanders believe in still be available after the Colts pick at No. 4, Washington brass had better get to the phone.
Vegas is in a great spot here, already possessing a slew of picks, including 11 total on Days 2 and 3; trading down in this scenario nets the Raiders at least an additional second-round selection, with just a slight decrease (by less than 3 percentage points) in their chances of landing an above average contributor at No. 16 vs. No. 7, whether they target either pass rusher, corner, tackle or (even better) a tight end. So, I don’t know the Raiders’ board, but the added equity would allow them to fairly easily trade back up into the end of the first round, should a quarterback they want to develop — or a player at another key position who surprisingly falls — be available. In essence, Vegas has the luxury of moving all over the board to target their priority players.
I don’t buy it. She mentions a quarterback. Washington has given no indication it would be moving up for a quarterback. The Commanders like Hendon Hooker, but that would likely be in the second round if he’s available. Head coach Ron Rivera has spoken of roster building this offseason. Trading away three valuable picks for one isn’t his — or Mayhew’s style.
Of course, if the Commanders secretly love a quarterback, then it’s never a bad move to go get your guy. However, moving to No. 7 for a cornerback is extremely unlikely to happen.
It would be fun, though.