Washington is winning, but playoff chances are in doubt
The Washington Commanders had their bye week after a 42-19 beatdown of the lowly Tennessee Titans. They were on a three-game losing streak, but have now won their last two after holding on to beat the Saints 20-19 on Sunday. They are 9-5, and could move up to the 6th seed this week with a win over the Eagles and a Packers loss. They’re firmly in the playoffs picture entering Week 16, and could even secure a playoff spot with a little help.
The Washington Commanders won this week, but they let the Saints come back from a 17-0 deficit, and almost won the game with a last-second touchdown. They went for the win, but failed the 2-point conversion. This didn’t sit well with many power rankers, and the general mood is that Washington will likely make the playoffs, but they’re not going very far if they do.
The Washington Commanders’ odds shifted again after their win over the Saints. Their odds to make the playoffs actually went down, while their Super Bowl odds both went up. Washington still has a chance to win the NFC East, but they would have to win out, while the Philadelphia Eagles would need to lose out. FanDuel has taken odds for the NFC East off the board, but they will likely be back up if Washington pulls off the upset against Philadelphia on Sunday.
- Winning the Super Bowl odds: +5500 —-> +5000
- Winning the division title odds: +2200 —-> Off the board
- “To make the playoffs” odds: Yes -420, No +310
High: 7
Low: 18
Average: 11.3
#7
NumberFire
Last week: 6
#9
Sports Illustrated(Orr)
This game didn’t really do much to change my thoughts on the Commanders. I think the ceiling is incredibly high for this team in the future, but they have run into some fortuitous scheduling and are lacking a true signature win. Imagine if we don’t get a Hail Mary, the Giants have a dependable field goal kicker and the Saints have Derek Carr (or a slightly better play call on the two-point conversion). We’re talking about a team that is lucky to be .500. Last week: 10
Sporting News (Iyer)
The Commanders came out of bye with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin picking up where they left off, but they could use a lot more help. The defense, namely Marshon Lattimore, winning a game for them, can be especially encouraging. Last week: 10
WalterFootball
It’s unreal that the Redskins nearly blew a 17-0 lead to Spencer Rattler. They won, but it was not deserved with all of their sloppy penalties and mistakes made in the second half. Last week: 11
#10
ESPN
Biggest improvement: Touchdown passes
Quarterback Jayden Daniels has had a terrific rookie season, but it took until Week 3 for him to throw the first touchdown pass of his NFL career. And in the first eight games, he threw only a total of seven. In the past six games, Daniels has thrown 10 touchdown passes, including seven in the past three. Wideout Terry McLaurin was on the receiving end of four of those scores. — John Keim Last week: 10
The Athletic(Kendall)
MVP: Quarterback Jayden Daniels
Denver’s Nix is giving Daniels some late-season competition for offensive rookie of the year, but no rookie has been anywhere near as electric as Daniels. He’s fifth in EPA per dropback (.16), 10th in passer rating (101.2) and second among quarterbacks in rushing (656). On Sunday, he led the Commanders in passing (226 yards, 118.5 passer rating) and rushing (66 yards on 11 carries). Last week: 11
CBS Sports(Prisco)
They looked dominant for much of the game against the Saints, but wilted late and made it a close game. They can’t do that this week against the Eagles or they will pay. Last week: 12
Pro Football Talk
They managed to get some breathing room for the No. 7 seed. Barely. Last week: 10
Sharp Football Analysis
Last week: 10
#11
NFL.com(Edholm)
Leading 17-0 well into the third quarter with the Saints’ starting QB for the day benched, the Commanders went into a shell. They grew conservative on offense, settling for one more field goal and missing another try. Throughout the day Sunday, they killed themselves with negative plays — totaling eight sacks, five runs for negative yardage and nine penalties — and ultimately nearly gave up the game. Washington also was too all or nothing offensively, undercutting big gains with lost yards. Jayden Daniels found some early rhythm and was accurate with his throws, but the sacks kept adding up. A playoff spot is there for the taking, and the Commanders keep playing with their food. Coming off their Week 14 bye, they looked sharp early and fizzled late, and their postseason credentials are certainly in doubt. This coming Sunday brings a telltale showdown with the red-hot Eagles, which could reveal whether the Commanders are capable of making noise in the playoffs — assuming they do, in fact, get in. Last week: 11
Pro Football Network(Kennedy)
- Offense+ Rank: 5
- Defense+ Rank: 20
- Special Teams+ Rank: 12
- SOS Rank: 32
After dropping three straight games from Week 10-12, the Commanders have bounced back with back-to-back wins. In Week 15, Washington defeated the Saints 20-19 in a game that was too close for comfort, coming down to a final two-point conversion attempt.
Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes for 226 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions while adding 66 rushing yards, and Terry McLaurin had seven catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns.
The Commanders now have a 65.4% chance of making the playoffs, but it is still fair to question their credentials. They have zero wins against teams with a winning record, as they are 0-4 when facing teams who are .500 or better this season. Next week’s matchup against the Eagles is a great litmus test for Washington. Last week: 11
Bleacher Report
At 9-5, the Washington Commanders are well-positioned to make the postseason this year. But after squeaking by an injury-ravaged Saints team in Week 15, it’s fair to wonder how much that really matters.
Granted, in the NFL getting the win is all that really matters. But the Commanders were their own worst enemies for much of Sunday’s game, whether it was nine penalties or allowing rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to be sacked eight times.
While addressing the media after the game, head coach Dan Quinn acknowledged to reporters that the Commanders have a lot to clean up if they are to make any noise in the postseason.
“Wild game,” Quinn said. “Good and bad. Solid, but not to the level we need to be.”
However, wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who scored two touchdowns in the game, credited his teammates for gutting out the victory.
“I know I have confidence in those moments for us to come through. That’s what we talk about all the time, those winning-time moments,” McLaurin said.
Analyst’s Take
Coming off a bye week, the Commanders narrowly escaped New Orleans with a victory over a team that split the game between two backup quarterbacks—one of them a rookie fifth-rounder. Washington lost significant sizzle after it won seven of eight games between mid-September and early November. The Commanders are still in a position to clinch a playoff berth, but they look like a one-and-done January team. — Moton Last week: 12
New York Post(Dunleavy)
Last week: 12
Odds Shark
Last week: 11
#12
USA Today(Davis)
They’ve been awfully unremarkable since Halloween, though – to a notable degree – that’s a function of heightened expectations following a 7-2 start. Still, quite a memorable year for Jayden Daniels, now the fourth rookie quarterback with at least 3,000 yards passing and 500 rushing. He needs 160 more on the ground to overtake former Washington star (and 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year) Robert Griffin III for the most ever by a first-year passer. Last week: 9
Yahoo Sports(Schwab)
Beating the Saints’ injury replacements because of an incomplete 2-point conversion with time expired isn’t exactly impressive. The lack of a running game outside of Jayden Daniels, no playmakers besides Terry McLaurin and way too many sacks allowed against the Saints are bad signs. Last week: 10
Sportsnaut(Johnson)
The Washington Commanders seemed to be on track for a blowout victory early in Week 16, taking a 14-0 lead with 5:38 remaining in the second quarter. Then, the Commanders were outscored 19-6 the rest of the way. Considering expectations for Washington coming into the year, the win is really all that matters as it moves this team to 9-5 with a great shot at making the playoffs. However, recent weeks have also demonstrated how much work still needs to be done this offseason. Fortunately, the Commanders have the cap space and the front office to do it. Last week: 13
Fox Sports(Helman)
Last week: 12
#14
The Score
Washington held on for a 20-19 win over the Saints, keeping the Commanders in pole position to secure a playoff spot. They’ve exceeded expectations with their 9-5 record through 14 games. Last week: 13
Team Rankings
Last week: 13
#15
NFL Trade Rumors(Woodie)
An elite first-half performance by first-round QB Jayden Daniels gave way to a shaky second half, letting the Saints back into the game. The Commanders survived on a two-point stand, but it wasn’t an inspiring team performance. Last week: 13
#18
The Ringer(Lee)
Last week: 16