Who could have predicted the greatest single-season turnaround in the cap era?
With Super Bowl LIX in the history books, and the embers burning out in what is left of downtown Philadelphia, it must be time to review my annual Bold Predictions for the Commanders’ season.
It is safe to say that very few Commanders fans, or anyone else for that matter, came even close to predicting how the season would unfold. For the first time in at least three decades, that was a good thing.
Ironically enough, given the unpredictable outcome of the Commanders’ season, this was the best I have ever done with my prognostications. Finally, after years of travelling the wasteland as a Washington football fan, it pays to be bold!
As a reminder for readers, the Bold Predictions are more about being bold than accurate. The fact that I got so many predictions right this year is just another reflection of how exceptional the first season turnaround was under the leadership of GM Adam Peters and HC Dan Quinn.
Photo by Thomas Simonetti for The Washington Post via Getty Images
I. Jayden Daniels will take fewer than 40 sacks
In the wake of the Commanders’ story-book season, 2023 seems like a distant memory. For those readers who need a reminder, in the final season of Ron Rivera’s tenure as head coach and head of personnel, QB Sam Howell led the NFL with 65 sacks for 449 yds (2nd place), taking sacks on 9.6% of dropbacks (7th place, min 7 starts).
In the offseason, there was a great deal of angst over the perception that first-year GM Adam Peters had not done enough to shore up the offensive line to protect his rookie QB. I based this prediction on three factors:
- The biggest weakness in pass protection in 2023 had been addressed through upgrades to the iOL, with Tyler Biadasz and Nick Allegretti replacing Nick Gates and Saahdiq Charles/Chris Paul respectively;
- Expected improvement in offensive scheme with the upgrade from OC Eric Bieniemy to Kliff Kingsbury;
- The biggest contributor to sacks taken was addressed by the upgrade at QB.
Note that my prediction carried an assumption that the Commanders would not make the playoffs – which would have seemed wildly optimistic at the start of the season.
Outcome
Missed it by that much. Jayden Daniels took 47 sacks in the regular season, representing a 40% reduction from Sam Howell’s sack total. Had I gone with the percentage change, which was mentioned in the original prediction, I would have nailed it on the dot. But my prediction slightly undershot the sack total. Daniels’ ended up taking the sixth-most sacks among NFL QBs, which is not great, but was 21 sacks short of the NFL leader, first overall pick Caleb Williams. Daniels was 7th in sack rate at 8.92% of dropbacks among QBs with a minimum of 7 starts, and 11th in sack yards. Daniels ranks better in sack yardage than sack total or sack rate because many of the plays that were counted as sacks were actually scrambles stopped short of the line of scrimmage.
Verdict: Incorrect
II. Jayden Daniels will win Offensive Rookie of the Year
The 2024 draft class was headlined by 3 or 4 NFL-ready QBs, depending on what people thought of Michael Penix, and two receivers that some were calling generational talents. Quarterbacks have an advantage in ORoY voting, but if either WR Marvin Harrison Jr. or TE Brock Bowers lived up to the hype they could be serious competition for the QBs. At season’s end, Bowers had done just that, but even his stellar rookie season was no match for the greatest NFL debut since Jim Brown or Sammy Baugh.
Verdict: Nailed it
III. Terry McLaurin will have his first season over 1,200 receiving yards
Finally paired with a quality starting QB, Terry set new career high marks in receiving yardage (1,323 yds) and TDs (16). Fortunately, my prediction didn’t specify regular season or post-season.
In fact, McLaurin’s 1,096 regular season receiving total was just the third-highest in his 6 year career. It fell 104 yds short of the 1,200 regular season mark I might have been thinking of when I made the prediction, for the reason I anticipated. Kingsbury’s offense spread the targets around, with the Commanders’ second-most targeted receiver, TE Zach Ertz, getting 78% as many targets as Terry in the regular season, and 6 Commanders’ receivers topping 300 yds.
McLaurin’s 13 TD total set a new franchise mark for the regular season, and his 16 TD total is also a new mark for an entire season. His 1,323 receiving yardage total across regular and post-seasons was the 9th highest in franchise history. The all-time franchise leader in total season yardage is Charlie Brown, with 1,626 yds in 1983. Note that these figures and rankings are not adjusted for changes in season length.
Verdict: Nailed it
Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images
IV. Dorance Armstrong will record at least 12 sacks
This prediction was based on my observation that Dorance had quietly achieved pass rush productivity equivalent to that of Washington’s departed edge rusher, Montez Sweat, while buried in Dan Quinn’s rotation at Dallas. Armstrong finished the season with 8.5 sacks, falling 3.5 short of my prediction.
Had I instead predicted that Armstrong would get more sacks than Sweat, I would have coasted to victory with a comfortable margin of 3 sacks. But sadly, I didn’t.
Verdict: Incorrect, due to unfortunate choice of wording
V. Johnny Newton will have more sacks than Chase Young this season
Second round pick, Jer’Zhan Newton, started 11 games for the Commanders in his rookie season. While that may be a good sign, he fell short of the lofty expectations created when Adam Peters revealed that he was surprised to see Newton drop to the 36th overall pick, and even considered trading up to get him. Foot fractures addressed in the offseason might have contributed to his slower than expected start. Newton finished the season with just 2 sacks, falling 3.5 sacks short of the former Commander edge rusher.
Verdict: Incorrect
VI. The Commanders will defeat the Chicago Bears with a > 50 yard Hail Mary by Jayden Daniels with time expiring
Just kidding. I didn’t predict that.
VI. Andrew Wylie will allow 6 sacks this season
This prediction was motivated by the simple observation that the Commanders’ much vilified right tackle has improved in pass protection every season since switching from guard to tackle. In truth, sacks are more of a QB stat than an OL stat, which is why I usually talk about Pressure Rates when evaluating performance in pass protection. Nevertheless, sacks are what most fans seem to focus on, and were the hot topic of offseason discussions.
According to PFF, Andrew Wylie finished the season as one of three OTs to play 800 or more offensive snaps without allowing a sack. The others were Elgses RT Lane Johnson, and Buccaneers LT Tristan Wirfs. Sports Info Solutions credits Wylie with 4 opponent sacks, down from 11 in 2024, representing more than a halving of his rate of sacks allowed from 1.7% of dropbacks to 0.8%.
I published this year’s Bold Predictions in a hurry, just ahead of the opening game. Upon review, the wording of “6 sacks” was clearly a typo and should have read “6 or fewer”. It would be insane to try to predict an exact number. I’m going to give myself the benefit of the doubt and claim the win. The point is, Wylie’s sacks allowed figure dropped dramatically relative to 2023, as I expected, and contrary to the doomsday scenarios that were making the rounds on Hogs Haven.
Verdict: Correct in principle, if not technically
VII. The Commanders will knock Dallas out of the playoffs in Week 18
Well, the Commanders held up their part of the bargain, by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 23-19. I got the prediction wrong by underestimating the speed and extent of the Cowboys’ collapse. For that, I felt some shame.
To give myself some credit, I did correctly anticipate why I would get the prediction wrong. This is what I had to say in my prediction:
Why I Might Get It Wrong
The Cowboys’ collapse might start earlier in the season than I am expecting. Their season might be effectively over by the time they visit Landover in Week 12.
Yup. The Cowboys were 3-7 when they played the Commanders in Week 12. They won 4 more games in the rest of the regular season. By Week 18, all hope was lost.
Verdict: Incorrect for all the right reasons
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images