A roundup of snaps, position alignments, and key stats
The national media have saved me the trouble of summarizing the key stats regarding the record-setting start to Jayden Daniels’ career in Washington and the Commanders’ faster than anticipated worst-to-first start to the season. By now, every Washington fan has probably heard that Daniels has set new NFL benchmarks for completion rate through four games to start a season and consecutive games.
Before the season started, a few sage prognosticators predicted that Daniels would win ORoY. After four games, there is now talk about whether he should be considered as an MVP candidate. As of this writing, Daniels is tied with Jalen Hurts in 9th place in MVP odds on most betting sites, according to Vegas Insiders (no relation), just ahead of Aaron Rodgers.
The focused media attention on Jayden Daniels may have allowed standout performances by other Commanders’ players to fly under the radar. For example, while Daniels was adding to his record streak of passing efficiency, with an 86.7% completion rate against the Cardinals, one of his receivers posted even more impressive receiving efficiency numbers as we will see below.
What we have witnessed over the past four games is the result of a total franchise effort. Two weeks ago, I summarized the timelines of recent NFL teams rebuilding from total disaster to playoff contenders. The fastest any team in the last decade had got to their first playoff win from a comparable start to the 2024 Commanders was three seasons. If the Commanders’ return to relevance continues at its current pace, they could smash that record to smithereens. Here is how the Commanders’ 3-1 record compares to the other successfully rebuilt teams after 4 games in Year 1:
Of the five teams, only the Bills matched the pace of the Commanders’ rebound. The 2021 Texans did not record their 4th win until Week 16. The 2021 Lions ended the season 3-13-1. The 2018 Browns notched their 4th win in Week 12. And the 2017 49ers had to wait until Week 15.
What is most remarkable about the speedy turnaround is that the Commanders started from a lower baseline than the other teams, with apparent needs at most of the high-replacement cost positions on the roster, in addition to QB and coaching staff. It would have been unreasonable to expect the partially rebuilt roster to gel as quickly as we have seen through the first four games.
Before we get too caught up in the worst-to-first excitement, it is probably worth pointing out that the Commanders have not beaten a team with a current record better than 1-3. On the other hand, with the way the rest of the NFC East has been playing, a 7-10 record might be enough for the Commanders to make the playoffs, putting a playoff finish in Year 1 of the rebuild within the realm of possibility
The Commanders’ sudden reversal of fortune is due to a combination of some great player additions and quite a few players exceeding expectations. That points to exceptional coaching. Unfortunately, coaching doesn’t leave a visible imprint on the stat sheet. Nevertheless, let’s take a look at who got playing time, which players stood out, and whether any didn’t in Washington’s first blow-out win under new management, on the road in Arizona. I’ll leave it up to readers to infer how much the coaches had to do with it.
OFFENSE
On the road against the Cardinals, the Commanders’ rookie QB completed 86.7% of his passes for 233 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. And that was only his second highest completion rate of the season. He also ran for 47 yards and 1 TD on 8 attempts (5.9 YPA)
The new development is that Daniels experienced a season-low 7 defensive pressures and was not sacked. He also thew his first NFL interception, which was bound to happen eventually. Through four games he has the 26th lowest interception rate (0.9%) among 33 starting QBs with a minimum of 50 attempts. By this point last season, Sam Howell had thrown 5 picks and had the 12th highest interception rate.
After four games, Daniels has a stellar Total QBR of 73.3, which ties him with Brock Purdy in fourth place among starting QBs, behind Josh Allen (82.3), Andy Dalton (76.1), and Sam Darnold (73.5). If you predicted that rank order of starting QBs before the season started, put your hand up in the comments.
Most people expected a steep drop off in production from the RB position with Austin Ekeler out with a concussion. The Commanders didn’t miss a beat as 8-year vet Jeremy McNichols had a career day rushing for 68 yds and 2 TDs on 8 attempts (8.5 YPA), with a long of 27. McNichols average 6 yards after contact per attempt and had a rushing success rate of 62.5%. He also caught one pass 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and gained 9 yards after contact for a net gain of 6 yards. If that were not enough, PFF gave him the third highest overall blocking grade on the team at 78.2.
Brian Robinson had a solid outing, picking up 101 yards and 1 TD, and 6 first downs on 21 rushing attempts (4.8 YPA), with a rushing success rate of 57.1%. Robinson averaged 3.0 yards after contact per attempt. He also caught all 3 of his passing targets for 12 yards. PFF ranked Robinson 4th on the team in overall blocking with a grade of 78.0 on only 4 blocking snaps.
Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with 85 receiving yards and was second in receiving targets with 6, all of which he caught. That is particularly impressive given how little he was on the field. He caught a pass on 1/3 of his offensive snaps. OZ was the most productive WR in the NFL in Week 4 on an opportunity adjusted basis, with an eye-popping 7.73 Yards/Route Run (min 3 targets). Bo Melton was in second place at 4.67 Y/RR. OZ also picked up an impressive 11.3 Yards After the Catch/Reception, which ranked 2nd in the NFL in Week 3 among WRs (min 3 tgts) after Ja’Marr Chase at 21.0 YAC/R.
It was Zaccheaus’ biggest receiving day since Week 12, 2022 against Washington, when he was playing for the Falcons.
Terry was second on the team in receiving yardage, catching 7/10 targets for 52 yds and 1 TD, with 1 drop. Terry was also second in receiving productivity at 1.79 Y/RR and was 3/3 on contested catches. Terry received PFF’s highest run blocking grade on the team in Week 4 at a whopping 89.0.
Noah Brown was third on the team with 3/4 receptions for 26 yds and 2 first downs. Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey each chipped in 1 reception on 1 target. Luke’s went for 17 yds and Dyami’s was a contested catch.
Zach Ertz caught 3/3 targets for 22 yds and a first down.
John Bates served mainly as a blocker, but did catch his only target for 9 yds. Bates scored poorly as a blocker by PFF’s grading system (Run 50.5, Pass 54.6). PFF charged him with 1 QB hurry in pass protection (25% pressure rate).
Sinnott contributed exclusively as a blocker and took the bulk of the team’s snaps at fullback. PFF was not overly impressed with Sinnott’s run blocking, giving him a grade of 54.9. He has not had an offensive touch through 4 games.
The Commanders’ much maligned offensive line had their breakout game in the Arizona desert, allowing just 3 QB pressures all game — half of their previous season low against the Bengals.
Rookie LT Brandon Coleman’s snap counts have been steadily increasing each week, although his percentage of offensive snaps has plateaued at 49% for the past two games. The Commanders have been alternating him in series of downs with Cornelius Lucas. He did not allow a single QB pressure in 20 pass block snaps against the Cardinals. This was the first game in which he did not allow a pressure this season. He had the team’s highest PFF pass block grade at 86.6, and the 4th highest run block grade at 66.2.
Cornelius Lucas, Nick Allegretti and Sam Cosmi each allowed 1 QB hurry.
Sam Cosmi was the only offensive lineman called for a penalty this week, with a 10 yard holding call.
DEFENSE
One of my Seven Bold Predictions for the Commanders’ 2024 Season was that Dorance Armstrong would record at least 12 sacks. That was based on the fact that Armstrong had been quietly improving as a rotational player in Dallas, and for the past two seasons kept pace with former Commander Montez Sweat in pass rush productivity. Through the first three games of the season, that prediction was aging badly.
On Sunday, Armstrong had his breakout game with the Commanders, pressuring Kyler Murray 5 times on 19 pass rushes, with 1.5 converting to sacks. His single game pressure rate of 26% of rush attempts was up there with the best pass rushers in the league. With 2 sacks over the past 2 games, he is back on track to make my prediction come true, with room to spare.
In addition to pressuring the QB, Armstrong was credited with 3 tackles and 2 assists, 1 TFL and a forced fumble. He led the team with 4 defensive stops. He was targeted twice in coverage, which is not ideal, allowing 2 receptions for 32 yds.
Dante Fowler has flown under the radar of Commanders’ fans. After his season-best game in Cincinnati, he had a relatively quiet game against the Cardinals, generating pressure on just 2 of 17 pass rushes (11%), with one tackle.
Jamin Davis had 2 solo tackles and 1 assist, with 1 TFL and 2 defensive stops. Javontae and Andre did not register any defensive stats.
After taking the week off in Cincinnati, Daron Payne showed more signs of life against the Cardinals, registering 1 sack and 1 tackle, both of which were defensive stops. He also had a QB hurry.
Jon Allen recorded his first sack of the season and 1 TFL. He had a total of 4 solo tackles and 1 assist, with 2 total QB pressures, including the sack. It was his most productive game of the season.
Johnny Newton and Phidarian Mathis each made 1 solo tackle.
Bobby Wagner was second on the team, after Dorance Armstrong, with 3 defensive stops. He had 5 solo tackles and 5 assists, with 3 TFLs. He was also second on the team at pressuring the QB, with 3 total pressures and 0.5 sack. According to PFF, he had one target in coverage against Marvin Harrison Jr for no reception.
Frankie Luvu made 5 solo tackles with 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, and 1 forced fumble for a turnover. He combined with Daron Payne on a sack and had another QB hit. Overall, he made 2 defensive stops. According to PFF, Luvu was targeted 4 times in coverage, giving up 2 receptions of 10 and 22 yds to WRs, but not conceding a reception to TE Elijah Higgins.
Mykal Walker had 1 tackle and 1 assist, which is not bad for being on the field for just 6 snaps.
The Cardinals’ rookie star WR Marvin Harrison Jr. had the second worst receiving day of his young career matched up against the Commanders’ secondary, who limited him to 5/6 receptions for 45 yds and 1 TD. He had the second lowest receiving productivity of his rookie campaign, at just 1.61 Y/RR. The Commanders held the rest of the Cardinals’ receivers to under 40 yards. OK, so maybe they gave up the Cardinals’ highest receiving total of the season. At least they held them to under 235 yds.
Commonly used coverage statistics like pass breakups, INTs and receptions/yards allowed are based on measurable events, and only tell part of the story. The more important part of a CB’s job is arguably what didn’t happen. The best CBs in the game cause receivers to disappear from the stat sheet. I have been struggling to find a way to measure “shut down” performance. This week I tracked the percentage of coverage snaps on which a CB’s receiver was targeted to provide some indication of how well they did at taking their receivers out of the game.
Benjamin St-Juste continued to take the most snaps at boundary CB, splitting time nearly equally on both sides of the field. He was targeted 4 times in 29 coverage snaps (14%), exclusively in matchups against Marvin Harrison Jr, allowing 4 receptions for 43 yds. St-Juste made 3 tackles.
Mike Sainristil took the second most snaps, splitting time nearly equally between the slot and boundary CB assignments. His receivers were targeted on just 2 of 29 coverage snaps (7%), and he allowed 1 reception for 12 yds to slot WR Greg Dortch, while shutting down WR Michael Wilson. Sainristil made 1 tackle and had 1 assist.
Emmanuel Forbes returned for his first game following thumb surgery and played predominantly at boundary CB. Forbes was targeted 3 times in 14 coverage snaps (21%), and he allowed 2 receptions to WR Michael Wilson for 16 yds. Forbes made 2 tackle assists and missed 3 tackles.
Noah Igbinoghene played slot corner and safety roles. He was targeted on 3 of 14 coverage snaps (21%) and gave up a 2 yd TD reception to Marvin Harrison Jr, and one reception for 7 yds against WR Greg Dortch. He recorded the Commanders’ only pass breakup of the game against WR Michael Wilson. Igbinoghene made 2 tackles and had 1 assist, resulting in 2 defensive stops against the run. Igbinoghene was the team’s second-most efficient run defender, with a run stop rate of 14.3%, ahead of both LBs.
Quan Martin once again played FS for most of the game. He made 3 tackles and had 2 assists, with 1 defensive stop. Martin had 1 target in coverage against slot WR Greg Dortch and conceded a 9 yd reception.
Jeremy Chinn was a versatile chess piece, splitting time between box and free safety and covering TEs in the slot. He was the team’s second leading tackler with 7 tackles, 3 assists and a forced fumble, according to Pro Football Reference, and 2 defensive stops, according to PFF. He was targeted once in coverage, conceding a 3 yd reception to TE Elijah Higgins.
Percy Butler occupied space on the field primarily at box and free safety. He had 2 assisted tackles. He was not targeted in 7 coverage snaps.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Austin Seibert extended his perfect streak with Washington, kicking 4/4 extra points and 2/2 field goals from 45 and 38 yds.
Tress Way booted his one and only punt since Week 1 for 51 yds, followed by a 4 yd return.
Olamide Zaccheaus added to his all-purpose yard total with 1 PR for 16 yards in addition to 2 fair catches. For the season, Zaccheaus is averaging 20.0 yds per return over 2 attempts.
The Commanders did not return any kicks.
Nick Bellore led the coverage units in tackling for the second week in a row with two solo stops.
All Pro Reavo, Bobby Price and Jamin Davis also had tackles. Percy Walker, Mykal Walker and Jeremy McNichols had tackle assists. Reaves and Oz had missed tackles.
There were no punt returns or punt coverage on Monday night. The special teams units also avoided penalties.
Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images
Week 3 Poll Quiz Answer
Last week, with Austin Ekeler out, RB Jeremy McNichols was the top pick for the player to see the largest proportional increase in playing time, collecting 38% of the votes. CB Emmanuel Forbes came in second, with 23% of the vote, followed by DT Johnny Newton in third place (11%) and RB Michael Wiley coming in fourth with 9% of the vote.
How prescient were Hogs Haven’s readers? 23% of poll respondents picked the correct answer, Emmanuel Forbes. The 38% who picked McNichols were only off by one place. But only 2 out of 200 respondents correctly picked the third place finisher, offensive weapon Trent Scott.
Here is how the poll options actually finished, in order:
1. CB Emmanuel Forbes: 33/0, quantum step
2. RB Jeremy McNichols: 27/8, +237%
3. OT Trent Scott: 2/1, +100%
4. WR Noah Brown: 48/34, +41%
5. DE Jamin Davis: 19/15, +27%
6. OT Brandon Coleman: 35/29, +21%
7. TE Ben Sinnott: 30/26, +15%
8. DT Johnny Newton: 22/21, +5%
9. RB Michael Wiley: 0/0, no change
10. DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste: 17/19, -10.5%