A roundup of snaps, position alignments, and key stats
A week after a tough but close loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Commanders had a get right blowout victory at home against the lowly Carolina Panthers, with their backup quarterback.
Following the Week 7 games, the Commanders rank first in the NFL in points scored (218, tie with Ravens), point differential (+66 pts) and EPA/play on offense (0.244). Meanwhile, they have allowed the 15th most points (152), and rank 29th in defensive efficiency at EPA/play (+0.126).
What we have learned after 7 games is that the Commanders can play tough against good teams and dominate bad teams. And they can at least do the latter without their star rookie QB. You have likely heard that they are 0-2 against teams with winning records and 5-0 against teams with losing records. In fact, point differential is a better measure of how good teams are than W-L record. Against teams with positive point differential, they are 2-1; while they are 4-0 against teams with negative point differential.
The Commanders are a good team, but it’s still not clear how good they are, or how good they can become, because they have been improving nearly week to week. On Sunday night, they will have their third opportunity to beat a winning team, and their fourth contest against a team with positive point differential, whichever you prefer. That game will provide another data point, whether Jayden Daniels plays or not.
But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s see what if anything we can learn from the victory against the Carolina Panthers, who by the way are a distant last place in the league in point differential at -133 pts, a full 57 points behind the 31st ranked Patriots at -76 pts.
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images
OFFENSE
Jayden Daniels left the game with a rib injury after leading the Commanders to a field goal on their first possession and was replaced by journeyman backup Marcus Mariota. The Commanders were held to a punt on the first possession with Mariota under center, and then scored on each of the remaining 6 possessions that did not end in a kneeldown.
Mariota completed 18/23 passes (78.3%) for 205 yds and 2 TDs, with just 1 sack for 4 yards, and no fumbles. He added 34 yds and three 1st downs on 11 rushing attempts (3.1 Y/A).
Mariota’s Week 7 performance, in relief of the Commanders’ injured starter, ranked 4th in the league in EPA/play (+0.423), 3rd in success rate (58.3%), 5th in completion rate, 4th in completion rate over expectation, and 10th in Total QBR (64.8).
After the first drive, Mariota began throwing darts with laser precision. According to Pro Football Reference, he was the 10th most accurate passer in Week 7, with 87% of passes on target, and the 5th lowest rate of bad throws (8.7%).
If he can play like that whenever he is needed, he provides tremendous value for a $6 million cap hit.
Before leaving the game, Daniels completed 2/2 passes for 6 yds and rushed 3 times for 50 yds, with a long of 46. He finished second on the team in rushing yards after playing for just 1 series.
On his return from injury, Brian Robinson led the team in rushing with 12 carries for 71 yds (5.9 YPA), 1 TD and 5 first downs. His rushing success rate of 75% ranked 3rd among NFL RBs in Week 7 (min 5 carries). Robinson averaged 2.2 yards before contact per rushing attempt and gained 3.8 yards after contact per attempt, with 1 broken tackle for the TD.
McNichols took 7 carries for 42 yds (6.0 YPA) and 1 first down, to finish the afternoon with a 71.4% success rate. He did it the hard way, averaging 1.4 yards before contact per rushing attempt and gaining 4.6 yards after contact per attempt, with 3 broken tackles (2.3 attempts per broken tackle).
Austin Ekeler was uncharacteristically quiet on offense. He rushed for just 17 yds on 4 attempts (4.3 YPA), and caught 2/2 passes for 3 yds.
Terry McLaurin led the Commanders in receiving, catching 6/6 targets for 98 yds (16.3 Y/Rec) and 5 first downs. McLaurin led the team, and was 2nd among NFL WRs in receiving productivity in Week 7, at an awesome 5.6 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR, min. 3 targets).
Olamide Zaccheaus had the next highest receiving total among WRs at 25 yds. He caught 67% of his targets, with 1 drop. He did manage to break 1 tackle, but only gained 1 YAC/rec, well down from his season average of 6.1 yds.
Dyami Brown caught 1/3 targets for 23 yds. Noah Brown caught his only target for 16 yds. Luke McCaffrey was not targeted, despite gaining separation on a lot of plays. Maybe it’s not just Jayden.
Zach Ertz was the Commanders’ second leading receiver, catching 4/5 targets for 40 yds and 1 TD.
Ben Sinnott caught his first NFL target for a 3 yard TD. He caught a second pass for 3 yds as well.
The other TEs were used exclusively as blockers. In 20 run block attempts, Sinnott achieved the third highest PFF run blocking grade (76.4) on the team. John Bates had the lowest run blocking grade on the team at 49.5.
Penalties
Zach Ertz committed two penalties that would have serious mistakes in a close game:
- False start, 5 yards on 3rd and 10 at the CAR 46
- False start, 5 yards on 3rd and 2 at the CAR 14
John Bates was also flagged 10 yards for holding.
Rookie Brandon Coleman left the field with a concussion in the first half, leaving Cornelius Lucas to man the LT position for the rest of the game. Center Tyler Biadasz also left the game early with a thumb injury and was relieved by Michael Deiter.
Pass Protection
A week after posting their worst game of the season in pass protection, the OL bounced back with their second best performance, allowing just 5 pressures including 1 sack on 32 dropbacks (Pressure Rate 15.6%).
Andrew Wylie had the best performance on the OL, allowing 0 pressures in 32 pass block snaps. Through 7 games, Andrew Wylie is one of only 5 OTs who have played more than 200 pass blocking snaps without allowing a sack. The others are Penei Sewell, Mike Onwenu, Tristan Wirfs and Ronnie Stanley. He is doing much better in that regard than Tyron Smith (5 sacks), whom some commenters had fits about the team neglecting to sign last offseason.
Here is how the rest of the players did:
LT Cornelius Lucas: 2 pressures/29 snaps = 6.9%
C Tyler Biadasz: 1 pressure/27 snaps = 3.7%
RG Sam Cosmi: 1 pressure/32 snaps = 3.1%
LG Nick Allegretti: 1 pressure/32 snaps = 3.1%
RT Andrew Wylie: 0 pressures/32 snaps = 0%
C Michael Deiter: 0 pressures/5 snaps = 0%
LT Brandon Coleman: 0 pressures/3 snaps = 0%
Run Blocking
Pro Football Focus’ army of analysts graded the OL’s run blocking as follows:
- RG Sam Cosmi 81.1
- LG Nick Allegretti 78.5
- LT Cornelius Lucas 66.1
- RT Andrew Wylie 65.7
- LT Brandon Coleman 62.0
- C Tyler Biadasz 61.6
Penalties
While the protection was good, the play was sloppy. Tyler Biadasz, Sam Cosmi and Andrew Wylie all drew flags:
Biadasz – false start, 5 yards on 2nd and 5 at the CAR 39
Wylie – holding, 10 yards on 2nd and 1 at the CAR 21
Cosmi – ineligible receiver, 5 yards on 1st and 10 at the CAR 47.
Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images
DEFENSE
The DE group has been in flux, with Dorance Armstrong and Javontae Jean-Baptiste(IR) missing the game with injuries. Newcomer Jalyn Holmes joined the lineup against the Panthers and Jamin Davis was released the week after.
Dante Fowler was the most impactful player on defense, with 1 INT for a TD, 1 sack, 1 TFL, and 2 QB hurries. That comes to 2 total defensive stops and a turnover for a score. Including the sack, he pressured the QB on 27.3% of pass rush snaps, which is All-Pro level if he could sustain it for a whole season.
Clelin Ferrell and Jamin Davis each had 1 solo tackle for a defensive stop and 1 assist plus 1 QB hurry. Davis pressured the QB on a respectable 16.7% of dropbacks, while Ferrell generated pressure on just 8.3% of rush attempts. Ferrell was flagged for an illegal block for 10 yards, and an offsides penalty that was declined.
Jalyn Holmes and Efe Obada had 1 solo tackle apiece. Holmes generated pressure on 1 of 6 pass rushes (16.7%) but Obada did not get near the QB.
Daron Payne seemed to get his mojo back a little against the Panthers. He recorded 2 tackles for defensive stops and 1 assist and generated 3 pressures on just 11 pass rush snaps (27.3% pressure rate). He was the only Commanders’ DT to pressure the QB.
Sheldon Day made two solo tackles.
Phidarian Mathis and Johnny Newton made no imprint on the stat sheet.
Mathis committed the first penalty of his career, a neutral zone infraction for 5 yds.
Frankie Luvu returned to his game-wrecking ways against the Panthers, recording 2 tackles, 2 assists, 2 TFL, and 1 sack. He was targeted just once in 16 coverage snaps and allowed 1 reception for 7 yds.
Bobby Wagner made 3 tackles and 3 assists, with 1 defensive stop. He blitzed 3 times, generating 1 pressure. In 16 coverage snaps, he had 1 target with no reception.
Nick Bellore was on the field for 3 defensive snaps and made 1 tackle for a stop. He had 1 target in coverage and allowed 1 reception for 2 yds.
Mike Sainristil led the team in tackles, with 6 solo tackles and 1 assist, with 1 TFL and 3 total defensive stops. He was targeted 5 times in 19 coverage snaps (26.3% target rate), allowing 4 completions for 26 yds (1.37 Y/Cov Snp), with 1 pass breakup.
Emmanuel Forbes was targeted twice in coverage (15.4% target rate) and intercepted a pass intended for WR Diontae Johnson, while allowing a 29 yd reception by TE Ja’Tavion Sanders. He also broke up a pass not intended for his receiver.
Noah Igbinoghene was the Commanders’ second most prolific tackler, with 6 solo tackles. He was targeted 5 times in 14 coverage snaps (35.7% target rate), allowing 4 receptions for 29 yds (2.07 Y/Cov Snp).
Benjamin St-Juste made just 1 solo tackle. His receivers were not targeted in 17 coverage snaps (0% target rate).
The CB group was penalty free against the Panthers.
Jeremy Chinn played all over the defense and was the most active safety on the stat sheet against the Panthers. He recorded 2 solo tackles and 4 assists, with 1 defensive stop and 1 missed tackle. His receivers were not targeted in 17 coverage snaps.
Percy Butler made 1 tackle and 2 assists. He was targeted once in 12 coverage snaps (8.3%) and allowed 1 reception for 2 yds.
Quan Martin contributed 2 tackle assists. He played 15 coverage snaps and was not targeted.
Darrick Forrest was only on the field for 5 defensive snaps, and made the most of his opportunities, recording 1 tackle and 1 assist.
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
After a slight diversion due to a blocked field goal in Baltimore, Austin Seibert reverted to perfection, making 4/4 field goals from 23, 29, 31 and 49 yards, and kicking 4/4 extra points. Siebert currently leads the NFL in scoring, with 76 points.
Tress Way punted once for 40 yards, resulting in a fair catch at the Carolina 11 yard line.
Olamide Zaccheaus returned 1 punt for 15 yards and had 2 fair catches. His 16.3 yd average return is the 3rd highest in the NFL (min 3 returns), and he has not dropped a catch or turned the ball over.
Austin Ekeler returned 1 kickoff for 34 yards. His 32.1 yd average return currently ranks 4th in the NFL (min 5 returns).
Nick Bellore did not make a tackle on special teams for the first time since Week 1, but still retained his title as the NFL leader with 8 teams coverage tackles for the season.
Darrick Forrest led the Commanders in Week 7 with 2 tackles in special teams coverage. Each Commander named Jeremy had 1 coverage tackle. Jeremy Chinn also had 1 assist, while Jeremy McNichols missed a tackle.
There were no penalties on special teams for the second week in a row.
Week 7 Poll Quiz Answer
Last week’s poll asked which of a select group of Commanders would have the biggest game against the Panthers. Rookie DT Johnny Newton won the voting at 27%, ahead of his first starting opportunity with Jon Allen out for the season. LB Frankie Luvu finished second at 25%, going into the first game against his former team. WR Luke McCaffrey finished third with 19% of the vote, no doubt from fans who have noticed that he has caught 100% of his targets, and spends most of his time on the field running wide open. “Everyone” was the fourth most popular option, with 10% of the vote.
Of course, it never occurred to me, or anyone else, to include backup QB Marcus Mariota, who turned in the breakout performance of the later part of his career. Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin were not included as options, because they were too obvious.
The player who had the biggest game against the Panthers only received 4% of the vote. Edge rusher Dante Fowler opened the scoring with a pick six and added a sack and a TFL, while pressuring Andy Dalton on 27.3% of pass rush attempts.
Poll winner Johnny Newton helped teammates on a few plays, but failed to register a defensive stat. Twenty five percent of respondents came close to the right answer, picking Frankie Luvu, who was Washington’s second best defender against the Panthers.