A resurgent Washington running game powers a get-right victory
The Commanders badly needed a get right win to quash the seeds of doubt that started to germinate during a three-game losing streak. They did it in resounding fashion with a 42-19 blow-out of the Tennessee Titans.
They didn’t do it all on their own, however. They got a lot of help from the Titans, who committed 12 penalties for 93 yds, coughed up 2 turnovers, dropped 6 passes, made 11 bad throws, and missed 7 tackles.
While the Titans had only won three games this season, their struggles had mainly been on offense. Through Week 12, their defense was very strong in some areas, ranking 2nd in the league in total yds allowed and first downs, 1st in passing yds allowed, 4th in net yds/attempt, 6th in rushing Y/A and 9th in total rushing yds allowed. For fans of advance stats, the Titans’ defense ranked 5th best in rush EPA/play (-0.163) and held opposing offenses to the fourth lowest rushing success rate (34.2%).
Those stats highlight just how impressive the resurgence of the Commanders’ ground game was on Sunday. The Commanders’ 267 yd rushing total was their highest of the season, bettering their previous high mark of 216 yds in the Week 4 win over the Cardinals. The 5.9 Y/A rushing average was the 3rd highest of the season, after the Cleveland game (6.3 Y/A) and the Week 2 Giants game (6.1 Y/A).
The Commanders achieved a season high 56.4% success rate on rushing plays against the Titans. To give you an idea of how important the running game is to the Commanders, there is a 0.64 correlation between rushing success rate and point differential in their games this season. As a predictive variable, rushing success rate accounts for the 40.7% of the variance in point differential across games. More simply put, they are 7-2 in games with a rushing success rate above 40%, and 1-3 in games when their rushing success rate has dipped below 40%.
On the flip side, the Titans’ defense ranked 19th or worse in all categories of scoring defense, and were 27th in the most important one, total points allowed (290). Even so, in Sunday’s 42-19 win, the Commanders became only the second team this season to score more than 34 points against them. The other team was the 11-1 Detroit Lions.
For many Commanders’ fans, an 8-5 record will be unfamiliar territory. The Commanders have not won 8 of their first 13 games since Week 14 of the 1999 season, the first season under Dan Snyder’s ownership, before he began putting his stamp on the franchise.
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OFFENSE
Aided by a resurgent running game, Jayden Daniels picked up right where he left off in the fourth quarter of the Cowboys game. Against the Titans, Daniels completed 25/30 passes (83.3%) for 206 yds, 3 TDs and 1 INT, and ran 9 times for 34 yds, 2 first downs and 1 TD. He also took 2 sacks for 10 yds. His overall effort against the Titans scored a Total QBR of 81.6, the third-highest mark in Week 13, behind Josh Allen (95.3) and Jordan Love (84.5).
According to PFF, which scores pressures liberally, Daniels was pressured on 10 of 38 (26.3%) dropbacks, including the 2 sacks. Using those figures, that was the third lowest pressure rate he has faced this season. The only games where he has faced lower rates of pressure were Week 4 Cardinals (19.4%) and Week 9 Giants (24.0%).
According to Pro Football Reference, which scores pressures more stringently, Daniels faced pressure on just 5.3% of dropbacks, his second-lowest pressure rate after the Cardinals game (2.5). Both stats services agree that the Cardinals, Titans and second Giants’ games were the bottom 3 in terms of pressure rates.
Through the three game losing streak, which coincided with Daniels’ recovery from a rib injury, concerns arose that his ability to cope with pressure was declining. Against the Steelers, his completion rate under pressure cratered to just 12.5%. He rebounded to 66.7% against the Eagles, then came back down to 30% against the Cowboys. Against the Titans, Daniels wasn’t really tested that much, but completed 2/3 passes under pressure (66.7%), which would be a decent overall completion rate for many QBs.
According to Pro Football Reference Daniels made 0 bad throws against the Titans, the first time he has done so in a full game as a pro. He also benefitted from 0 drops by receivers for the fifth time this season, not including the Carolina game where he only threw two passes.
Brian Robinson ran 16 times for 103 yds (6.4 Y/A) including a 40 yd TD. He accounted for 4 first downs on the ground. He got a lot of help from his offensive line opening up big running lanes, as indicated by a season high 6.4 yards before contact/attempt. Robinson’s previous high was 3.4 YBC/att in the Week 2 Giants game. He also had a season low 0 yards after contact, meaning that all of his yardage was gained before contact.
Robinson caught the only pass to a running back in the game. It was thrown to him 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, and he picked up 11 yards after the catch for a net gain of 6 yds.
Chris Rodriguez played relief back. He got his first carry on a three yard run on the last play of the third quarter. He went on to amass 94 rushing yards on 13 carries (7.23 Y/A), 5 first downs, and 1 TD, with a long of 25 yds. Not bad for a quarter of football. Like Robinson, he picked up all of his yardage before contact.
Jeremy McNichols also had a solid game, rushing 6 times for 32 yds (5.33 Y/A) and 2 first downs, and a long of 12. Keeping with the theme, all 32 yds were before contact.
Altogether, Washington’s backs accounted for 7 rushing plays of 10 or more yards, for a total of 132 yds.
In a break from his usual habit, Kliff Kingsbury moved Terry to the right side on 14% of his offensive snaps. McLaurin was a perfect 8/8 for 73 yds, 6 first downs and 2 TDs. He was used on shorter routes than usual, with an ADOT of 6.9 yds, nearly half his season average of 13.6 yds.
Terry is currently tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2nd in the league in receiving TDs (9). He is 3rd in receiving yds (896) and 15th in Y/RR. Terry leads the NFL with 20 contested catches. His 74.1% contested catch rate is the fourth highest among receivers with more than 50 targets. The three players ahead of him are tight ends (Mark Andrews 100%, Cole Kmet 85.7%, George Kittle 75.0%).
Dyami Brown tied with Zach Ertz as the Commanders’ second-leading receiver, catching 4/5 targets for 35 yds and 2 first downs. Brown was also used on short routes, averaging -1.5 yds before catch/reception and gaining an average of 10.3 YAC/R. He also had 1 run from the fullback position for 4 yds.
Noah Brown caught 3/4 targets for 27 yds and 1 first down at an ADOT of 9 yds. Olamide Zaccheaus caught 3/3 targets for 14 yds. And rookie Luke McCaffrey caught 2/2 targets for 13 yds.
Zach Ertz caught 3/6 targets for 35 yds, 2 first downs and 1 TD.
John Bates was used effectively as a blocker, taking a season high 10 snaps lined up at fullback.
Ben Sinnott maintained his perfect 100% catch rate, hauling in his lone target for 3 yds.
The offensive line had a dominant performance blocking against a Titans DL featuring DTs Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat.
Pass Protection
The OL had a very good day in pass protection, surrendering a total of 6 pressures, including 1 sack:
- LT Brandon Coleman: 1 hurry, 1 sack, pressure rate 4.76%
- LG Nick Allegretti: 2 hurries, pressure rate 4.76%
- C Tyler Biadasz: 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.38%
- RG Sam Cosmi: 0 pressures
- RT Cornelius Lucas: 1 hurry, pressure rate 2.38%
Run Blocking
According to PFF Run Block grades, not to mention the running backs’ immaculate yards before contact, the run blocking was much improved over recent games:
- C Tyler Biadasz 90.6
- RG Sam Cosmi 66.3
- LT Brandon Coleman 65.1
- RT Cornelius Lucas 54.9
- LG Nick Allegretti 51.5
Penalties
Sam Cosmi collected a a 5 yd false start penalty on offense in the 2nd quarter. Cornelius Lucas was flagged for a 5 yd illegal man downfield penalty in the second quarter. Nick Allegretti committed holding in the third quarter, but the penalty was declined.
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DEFENSE
Dorance Armstrong bounced back a bit from a mediocre showing against Dallas, generating pressure on 16.7% of pass rush attempts, with 4 hurries and 1 QB hit. He missed 2 tackles, according to PFR, and did not make any.
Dante Fowler made 2 tackles, with 1 TFL and 2 defensive stops. He generated pressure on 11.5% of pass rush attempts, with 1 QB hit and 2 hurries.
Clelin Ferrell had a good day for playing just 16 defensive snaps. He was credited with 2 tackle assists and 0.5 sack to go with 2 QB hurries. He generated pressure on 27.8% of pass rush attempts.
Not to be outdone by Ferrell, Jalyn Holmes generated pressure on 28.6% of pass rush attempts, with 2 total QB hurries.
Javontae Jean-Baptiste generated 1 tackle assist in 8 defensive snaps.
Daron Payne made 2 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 sack and 1 TFL, for a total of 2 defensive stops.
Johnny Newton had a pretty quiet day, recording no stats according to PFR. PFF credits him with 1 tackle for a stop and 1 QB hurry.
Sheldon Day generated 1 hurry on 13 pass rush snaps. Nose tackle Carl Davis kept a clean stat sheet, playing in place of Phidarian Mathis.
Frankie Luvu is the Commanders’ most consistent player on defense. Against the Titans, he made 3 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 TFL, for a total of 3 defensive stops. He batted one pass and blitzed 6 times, generating the sack, 2 QB hits and 1 hurry. He was targeted once in coverage and allowed a reception for 0 yds.
Bobby Wagner made 4 tackles with 1 assist with 2 defensive stops. He blitzed 4 times, generating 1 QB hit. He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 1 reception for 2 yds. Wagner drew a 2 yd pass interference penalty, which was one of only two called on the defense in the game.
Mike Sainristil was the Commanders’ leading tackler, with 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, and a forced fumble. According to Pro Football Reference, he was targeted 11 times in 43 coverage snaps, allowing 6 receptions (54.5%) for 109 yds and 1 TD. Pro Football Focus has him at 6 rec/8 targets (75%), 103 yds, and 1 TD. He allowed between 2.39 and 2.53 Y/Cov snap, which represents his worst day in coverage as a pro. It didn’t help his cause to have 4 matchups against 6-2, 211 lb Nick Westbrook-Ikine and 2 against 6-3, 238 lb Chig Okonkwo.
The pass breakup on the Titans’ 2 pt conversion attempt is not recorded as an official stat, but we all saw it.
Benjamin St-Juste made 1 tackle for a stop and 1 assist. He was targeted 8 times, allowing 3 receptions (37.5%) for 22 yds. He allowed just 0.56 Y/Cov snap in coverage, which was one his best efforts of the season. Of course, he did benefit from Sainristil drawing targets in coverage mismatches.
Noah Igbinoghene made 1 tackle and 1 assist and broke up a pass intended for Tyler Boyd. He allowed receptions on 2/3 targets for 15 yds. He held his receivers to 0.349 Y/Cov snap, making him the stingiest of Washington’s CBs in coverage.
Michael Davis had 1 tackle assist.
Quan Martin made 4 tackles and 1 assist with 1 defensive stop. He was targeted 3 times in coverage, giving up 2 receptions for 42 yds.
Jeremy Chinn is usually one of the Commanders’ leading tacklers, but against the Titans he made just 2 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 defensive stop. He recorded a QB hit on his only blitz. He was targeted 6 times in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 31 yds and 1 TD. He was also flagged for 15 yd pass interference penalty.
Percy Butler’s sole contribution was a QB hit.
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SPECIAL TEAMS
Zane Gonzalez was a perfect 6/6 on extra points, but missed field goals from 46 and 52 yards. Fortunately, when you are attempting 6 extra points, you can usually afford to concede a field goal or two.
Tress Way only attempted 1 punt and booted it 52 yds.
Jeremy McNichols returned 4 kicks for 90 yds (22.5 YPA). Olamide Zaccheaus returned 3 punts for 18 yds. There were no fair catches or muffed catches.
Tyler Ott snapped the ball 8 times without screwing up, which is about all anyone can hope for from a long snapper.
Larry Izzo’s special teams coverage units pulled themselves together following last week’s gaffe-filled performance.
Tyler Owens recorded a tackle and a forced fumble, but also missed a tackle. Jeremy Reaves made 2 tackles. And special teams mainstays Nick Bellore and Jordan Magee recorded 1 apiece.
It wasn’t all sunshine and puppies, though. Sam Cosmi committed a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Michael Davis was assessed a 12 yard unnecessary roughness penalty on a punt return.
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Week 12 Poll Quiz Answer
Last week I asked readers who would have a get right game against the Titans. For the second week in a row, there was more than one right answer among the poll options.
The most popular choice among voters was OC Kliff Kingsbury. 28% of poll respondents got that one right as Kingsbury answered his doubters with a tour de force game plan delivering a blow-out scoring performance on offense.
The next most popular choice was QB Jayden Daniels, capturing 18% of the vote. Daniels bounced back with a strong performance from the whistle after struggling to get things going through three quarters against Dallas.
There was a tie for third place. 12% of poll respondents nailed it by picking RB Chris Rodriguez, who had a career performance, nearly reaching 100 rushing yards in just one quarter of football. Another 12% of poll respondents were hopeless losers who picked The Tennessee Titans.
RG Sam Cosmi also would have been a good answer. He only got 2 out of 94 votes.