The Commanders hang on for their ninth win against the Saints
This article is a 3,037 word dive into the statistics of the Washington Commanders’ ugly road win against the New Orleans Saints. But there is really only one stat that matters. When the final whistle blew, the Commanders had held on to a 20-19 lead, to bring their season record to 9-5. This is the first time that Washington has won 9 games in a season since 2015, and the first time they have won 9 of their first 14 games since 1992. With three games remaining, they have an opportunity to achieve the best regular season record since their 1991 Super Bowl Championship season. They can even lose another game and still do that.
There has a been a lot of chatter about the game being closer than it should have. But ugly wins count the same as pretty ones. In fact, the Commanders played a dominant first half and led the Saints from their first possession to the final whistle. A combination of mistakes, failures to execute, penalties and bad calls by the officials allowed the Saints to mount an ultimately unsuccessful comeback in the second half.
A major factor contributing to the Commanders’ inability to put the Saints away was the failure to establish an effective inside running game.
Against the Saints, the Commanders rushed for 137 yards, their fifth-lowest total of the season. QB Jayden Daniels was the team’s leading rusher, accounting for 66 rushing yards, meaning that the other backs combined for just 71 rushing yards, also the fifth lowest total of the season.
While JD5 has rightly been credited for the team’s success on offense, the Commanders’ do much better when he gets help from his running backs. On Sunday, the team was missing starting center Tyler Biadasz, and that seemed to impact their ability to get the interior running game going. His absence is likely to have had a major impact on their ability to hang onto the lead in the second half.
The running game in general, and the running backs in particular, have been of crucial importance to the Commanders’ success this season:
- In games where the rushing success rate is over 45%, the Commanders are 6-1, with a point differential of +94 (+13.4 pts/game). In games with rushing success rate below 45%, they are 3-4, with point differential of -13 (-1.9 pts/game).
- In games in which non-QBs rushed for more than 100 yds, the Commanders are 7-0, with point differential of +116 (+16.6 pts/game). In games in which they rushed for fewer than 100 yards (actually 75 or fewer yds) they are 2-5, with point differential of -35 (-5 pts/game).
- In games in which non-QBs averaged more than 5 yds/carry, the Commanders are 6-0, with point differential of 111 (+18.5 pts/game). When non-QBs averaged fewer than 5 yds/carry (actually < 3.94 Y/A), they are 3-5, with point differential of -30 (-3.75 pts/game).
Tyler Biadasz has been the Commanders’ best offensive lineman this season. How critical was his absence to the success of the running game? This season, the Commanders have averaged 4.59 yards per attempt and had an average gain of 39.5 yds/game on runs through the A gaps, on either side of center. With Biadasz absent on Sunday, they averaged a season low of 1.29 yds/attempt and a season low of 9 total yards on A gap runs.
The impact of Biadasz’ absence illustrates how brittle the team is in the first year of the rebuild. While most of the major holes in the roster have been plugged with upgrades or at least passable place holders, the team lacks the depth to replace many of its key starters. Hopefully, having #63 back in the lineup will allow the Commanders to get their running game going against the Eagles, allowing Kliff Kingsbury’s offense to operate at full steam.
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
OFFENSE
There has been a lot of talk about the three incompletions that JD5 threw to Terry McLaurin, which would have turned the game into a route if they had connected. All three of the incompletions were on routes of over 40 yards. Furthermore, one of them hit McLaurin’s hands and is graded as a drop by both Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, passes traveling over 40 yards have a roughly 20% chance of completion. Without the drop, Jayden’s completion percentage of 33% would have been better than expected.
Those three passes were also half of Daniels’ total number of incompletions in the game. In his return to Louisiana, Daniels completed 25/31 (80.65%) passes for 226 yds, 2 TDs and no INTs. He was sacked 8 times for only 37 yards (4.6 yd/sack) and ran 11 times for 66 yds (6.0 Y/A) and 6 first downs. One reason that the sack yardage was low for 8 takedowns is that three of them were actually scrambles for no gain (paywall warning).
Those readers still concerned about the three misses to a wide open Terry might be comforted to know that, according to Pro Football Reference, Daniels only made two bad throws, resulting in his lowest Bad Throw Rate of the season at just 6.7%. That made him the 5th-most accurate passer in Week 15 among QBs with a minimum of 10 attempts.
In sharp contrast to their last game, against the Titans, the running backs had to struggle for every inch against the Saints.
Brian Robinson led the charge with 21 attempts for 65 yds (3.1 Y/A) and 5 first downs, to finish with a 47.6% rushing success rate. He averaged just 0.8 yards before contact per attempt, down from 6.4 YBC/att against the Titans. Robinson broke 3 tackles and averaged 2.3 yds after contact per attempt.
Robinson committed the first penalty of his career, a holding infraction for 10 yds in the 2nd quarter.
Jeremy McNichols had an even tougher time, rushing for 4 yds on 2 carries and averaging -1 YBC/att and 2.5 YAC/att, with 1 broken tackle.
Despite pleas for more carries from some HH writers, Chris Rodriguez only took one handoff for 2 yds and was hit at the line (0 YBC), but pushed forward for 2 YAC.
Despite the two off-target throws, Terry McLaurin continued on his personal best pace, catching 7/10 targets for 73 yds, 5 first downs and 2 TDs, at an ADOT of 17.9 yds. He was the Commanders’ second most productive receiver at 1.74 Yards/Route Run. He caught 1 of 2 contested catches.
McLaurin has 969 receiving yards and 11 TDs, with 3 games remaining. If he maintains his current pace of 69.2 yds per game, he will finish the season with a career high 1,177 receiving yards. He has already set a new personal best for receiving TDs, and ranks 2nd in the NFL this season.
Kliff Kingsbury started moving Terry to the right side more frequently against the Titans and seems to have liked the result. Against the Saints, Terry lined up as the right wide out nearly half as many times as on the left side.
Olamide Zaccheaus was the second-leading receiver, catching 3/4 targets for 36 yds and 2 first downs. He averaged 7.0 YAC/reception and broke 1 tackle.
Dyami Brown was a close third with 3/4 receptions for 30 yds. He had an ADOT of 1.0 yds and averaged 9.0 YAC/reception.
Jamison Crowder was a perfect 3/3 for 27 yds, while poor Luke McCaffrey had just 1 reception for 0 yds.
Penalties
Olamide Zaccheaus was called for a 4 yd illegal shift penalty in the first quarter. Dyami Brown was called for a 10 yard holding penalty in the second quarter.
Zach Ertz was fifth on the receiving totem pole this week, catching 2/2 passes for 25 yds. He was actually the Commanders’ most productive receiver at 1.79 YRR. He left the game early with a concussion after making the catch of the week for 19 yds in the 2nd quarter. Let’s see it again:
Zach Ertz said
: #WASvsNO on FOX
: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/xAow4zbBJ6— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
John Bates and Ben Sinnott continued to play primarily as blockers. Bates caught his lone target for a 6 yd first down. Sinnott was also targeted once for a 6 yd reception.
Missing Tyler Biadasz due to a sudden illness, the offensive line came back down to earth after its dominant performance against the Titans.
Pass Protection
While the pass protection wasn’t as good as the last game, it wasn’t a disaster either, with two of the OL keeping the Saints’ pass rushers completely at bay. Only one of Jayden Daniels’ 8 sacks was credited to a missed block by an offensive lineman. Once again, the rookie was to blame:
- LT Brandon Coleman: 1 hurry, 1 sack, pressure rate 4.08%
- LG Nick Allegretti: 0 pressures
- C Michael Deiter: 0 pressures
- RG Sam Cosmi: 4 hurries, pressure rate 8.16%
- RT Andrew Wylie: 4 hurries, pressure rate 8.16%
Run Blocking
The likely impact of C Tyler Biadasz’ absence on interior run blocking was discussed in the Introduction. For whatever it’s worth, PFF’s run blocking grades are listed below. They seem to agree on the decline in run blocking at center. In his last apperance, Biadasz had a 90.6 run blocking grade, and the Commanders averaged 7.0 YPA on A gap runs:
- LT Brandon Coleman 53.9
- LG Nick Allegretti 69.1
- C Michael Deiter 47.8
- RG Sam Cosmi 68.6
- RT Andrew Wylie 70.4
Penalties
Nick Allegretti committed a 10 yd holding penalty, which helped to stall out the Commanders’ final drive before the two minute warning in the fourth quarter. Brandon Coleman had a false start penalty in the third quarter for 5 yds. Sam Cosmi committed a 10 yard holding penalty in the first quarter.
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
DEFENSE
Clelin Ferrell’s snap counts dropped in the last game and that trend continued against the Saints. Dante Fowler has got more playing time in his place.
Dorance Armstrong made his presence felt with 3 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack, and 2 TFL, for a total of 3 defensive stops. According to PFF, he generated pressure on just 5.9% of pass rush snaps, but he made it count with the sack.
Dante Fowler made 1 tackle for a loss. He registered 1 QB hit and two hurries, for a pressure rate of 9.1% of pass rush snaps, his fourth lowest of the season. Fowler also picked up two roughing the passer penalties in the fourth quarter for a total of 30 yds.
Jalyn Holmes made 1 tackle for a stop and generated 1 QB hurry in the pass rush. Javonte Jean-Baptiste also generated 1 hurry.
Clelin Ferrell did not record any defensive stats.
Daron Payne had his biggest day on defense in a while. Perhaps he read my bye-week update in which I graded him as replacement level, based on production relative to cap hit.
Against the Saints, Payne registered 1 tackle for a loss and 1 assist. He batted 1 pass at the line and generated 4 total pressures including 1 sack and 1 QB hit, for a pressure rate of 10.8%, his highest figure since the Week 7 Panthers game. He had been in a slump since then in terms of pressuring the QB; however, he has now recorded sacks in three consecutive games after having recorded just 2 sacks in the first 11 games. Perhaps he is finally settling in to Joe Whitt’s defense.
Johnny Newton made 1 tackle for a stop and 1 assist, with 1 missed tackle. He also broke up 1 pass. He generated just 1 hurry on 21 pass rush snaps.
Sheldon Day had 1 tackle assist. Carl Davis did not register any defensive stats.
***ROOKIE FIRST SNAPS***: Jordan Magee played his first snaps on defense as a Commander. In 3 defensive snaps, he was targeted on one pass attempt without allowing a reception.
Frankie Luvu had possibly his worst day on defense with the Commanders, with 1 PBU, 2 QB hits and 1 QB hurry in the pass rush and 1 missed tackle. He was targeted twice in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 33 yds and 1 TD.
Bobby Wagner had 3 solo tackles and 2 assists, with 1 TFL and 1 missed tackle. He made a total of 2 defensive stops. On just 5 pass rush attempts, he registered 1 QB hit and 1 hurry. He was targeted 3 times in coverage, allowing 2 receptions for 24 yds.
Mykal Walker played just 6 defensive snaps, but managed to get in on 2 tackles and 1 assist. He was also targeted once and allowed a reception for 29 yards. He was involved in a play on the ball on 100% of defensive snaps, although not always with great results.
In his Commanders’ debut, Marshon Lattimore was exactly as advertised. The NFL’s premiere lockdown corner made the receivers in his coverage vanish from the stats sheet. He did not allow a single target in 39 coverage snaps.
Playing opposite Lattimore, rookie CB Mike Sainristil also had a huge day in coverage. Admittedly, he was not defending against the NFL’s best QBs. Even so, in 8 targets, he allowed just 2 receptions (25% rec rate) for 10 yds. On top of that, he recorded 1 interception and 2 PBUs, to go with 2 tackles, 3 assists, and 1 missed tackle.
Not to be outdone, slot CB Noah Igbinoghene made the game winning PBU, which wasn’t recorded as an official stat because it occurred on a two point conversion attempt. In addition to that, he recorded 2 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 defensive stop. In 5 coverage targets, he allowed 2 receptions (40%) for 19 yds.
In stark contrast to the other CBs, Benjamin St-Juste took the field for only 3 defensive snaps, and somehow managed to get called for a 5 yd illegal contact penalty, with the Saints at 3rd and 10 at their 26 yard line in the fourth quarter. The penalty gave them a first down to keep a drive alive that ended in a field goal.
Jeremy Chinn led the Commanders in tackles, with 5 solo and 2 assists, 2 TFL, 1 missed tackle, and 3 defensive stops. He blitzed 3 times and registered 1 sack and 1 QB hit. He was targeted 3 times in coverage and allowed 3 receptions for 67 yds.
Quan Martin made 1 tackle and 3 assists, with 1 missed tackle. He was targeted twice in coverage without allowing a reception.
Darrick Forrest got the most playing time on defense he has had this season. He made 3 tackles and 2 assists, with 1 defensive stop and 1 missed tackle. He was targeted 4 times in coverage and allowed 3 receptions for 13 yds and 1 TD.
Percy Butler saw a significant reduction in playing time compared to recent games. He got in on 1 tackle assist. He was not targeted in coverage.
Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
Greg Joseph became the fourth player to kick for the Commanders this season, as he filled in for an injured Zane Gonzalez. Joseph was 2/2 on extra points and made field goals of 23 and 41 yds, but missed one from 54 yds with 2:00 min remaining and the Saints trailing by just one TD.
Tress Way punted 3 times, averaging 46.0 YPA and landing 1 inside the Saints’ 20 yard line. All three punts were returned for a total of 6 yds, resulting in a net average of 44.0 yds per punt.
Tyler Ott had a bad snap, which was recovered by Tress Way on the missed field goal. This was his second game in a row with poor, but recoverable snap. Considering that the Commanders are paying him $1.46 million to snap the ball around half a dozen times per game, he should probably be more reliable than that.
Luke McCaffrey got his first shot at returning kicks this week. He had 3 returns and averaged 28.7 YPA. Jeremy McNichols also returned 1 kick for 29 yds.
Jamison Crowder returned 2 punts for 12 yds and made 1 fair catch.
In addition to getting his first snaps on defense, Jordan Magee also led the Commanders in special teams tackles with 3 solo and 1 missed.
Mykal Walker was second on the team wih 1 tackle, 1 assist, and 1 missed tackle. Teams’ stalwarts Tyler Owens, John Bates and Quan Martin recorded 1 tackle apiece. Nick Bellore brought up the rear with 2 assisted tackles and 1 missed.
The special teams units played without a single penalty this week.
Week 13 Poll Quiz Answer
Before the bye I asked readers how many more games the Commanders would win this season. A 47% plurality of poll respondents selected 3. The most popular choice could mean that the Commanders would win 3 of their remaining 4 regular season games and either miss the playoffs or lose in the Wild Card round. It could also mean the Commanders finished the regular season 10-7 and then won a Wild Card game. I am not even sure if it’s possible to make the playoffs at 9-8, but if so then some respondents might have even anticipated a Divisional round playoff win. Doing so would represent the highest playoff finish by a team in the first year of a comparable rebuild in the salary cap era. After the Commanders’ defeat of the Saints, all of these potential outcomes remain possible.
The next most popular answer, with 27% of the vote, was 2 more wins. With the Commanders advancing to 9-5, that prediction could only prove correct if win one more game and miss the playoffs, or squeak into the post-season at 9-7 and win a Wild Card game.
The third most popular answer, with 18% of the vote was 4 more wins, which could unfold in a variety of ways. With the Commanders currently at 9-5, that would almost certainly involve at least one playoff win. Such a finish would set a new benchmark for rebuilding teams. In the salary cap era, no team has had a winning regular season record and a playoff win in the first year of a total rebuild involving a new FO, new coaching staff and major roster overhaul.
Three percent of respondents voted that the Commanders would win 5 more games, and 4% (5 votes) voted that they would win 8 more games and a add a fourth Lombardi trophy to the collection.