Definitely no moral victories this week
Less than a week after taking the defending NFC champions to overtime, the Commanders suffered an embarrassing blow-out loss in primetime to a Chicago Bears team that many had thought was the worst team in football. And then the realization set in. Dan Snyder may have left town, but his front office and coaching staff are still running the team.
For those who have the stomach, let’s see how they fared.
SOME STATISTICS
After 5 weeks of the 2023 season, the Commanders record stands at 2-3. Believe it or not, that ties with 2021 for the fastest start in Rivera’s tenure as head coach and head of football operations in Washington. Ron Rivera’s teams haven’t always been such slow starters. In 5 of his last 6 seasons with the Carolina Panthers, his teams had winning records after 5 games.
The Commanders allowed the second most points (40) in Week 5, behind only Dallas and Carolina who each allowed 42. Jack Del Rio’s defense allowed the 4th most total yardage, the 8th most passing yardage, and the 5th most rushing yardage among the 28 teams that played.
It should come as no surprise that the Commanders ranked dead last in defensive efficiency in Week 5 at 0.309 EPA/play. What might be surprising is that they were only third worst in defensive efficiency against the pass at 0.381 EPA/play. Teams that were even worse than Washington were the Vikings (0.437) EPA/play and the Cowboys (0.655 EPA/play). The Commanders were also only third worst against the rush (0.233 EPA/play), ahead of Carolina (0.320) and the Giants (0.338).
The Commanders’ Achilles heel on defense was vulnerability to big plays. The defense allowed 6 explosive passing plays (>15 yds) for a total of 228 yds and 2 TDs. Five of the 6, accounting for 203 yds and both scores, were receptions by WR D.J. Moore. If it makes you feel any better, the Commanders only allowed the 4th most explosive passing plays and they were tied with 4 other teams (DAL, TEN, CAR, ATL). At least they weren’t as frequently abused as the Texans, who allowed 10 explosive passing plays.
Against the Commanders, Chicago WR D.J. Moore caught 8 of 10 targets (80% catch rate) for 230 yds and 3 TDs, averaging 28.8 yards per reception, with a long of 58. In Week 5, 17 NFL offenses had fewer receiving yards than Moore. Moore’s receiving total was the 8th highest single game total in the past decade. Moore’s career receiving day was not primarily on Forbes, who only conceded 76 of his receiving yards. He had plenty of help from Kendall Fuller (67 yds) and either Darrick Forrest (65 yds) or Benjamin St-Juste (58 yds), depending on whether you believe Pro Football reference (Forrest) or Pro Football Focus (St-Juste), with Percy Butler chipping in where he could (20 yds). You have to applaud the entire secondary pulling together to achieve greatness.
Washington’s defense also gave up 3 explosive rushing plays (>11 yds) for a total of 64 yards. They tied with the Rams, Panthers and Broncos for giving up the 3rd most explosive runs.
The Commanders’ offense, led by Sam Howell, did their best to come back from an early deficit, but it was not enough. Washington tied with Buffalo, Minnesota and Arizona for 15th most points scored (20) in Week 5. They tied with Buffalo for 9th in total yardage, and also tied with Buffalo for the NFL lead in net passing yardage (359 yds). And last of all, would you believe they also tied with Buffalo for fewest rushing yards (29 yds). They did separate from Buffalo in making the fewest rushing attempts (10). So, in effect, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy asked his young QB, making his 6th pro start, to pull off the comeback and win the game by himself.
While the offensive totals look respectable, at least in the passing game, those numbers can be deceiving. The Commanders ranked 20th in offensive efficiency in Week 5, with a fairly pedestrian -0.064 EPA/play. They ranked 16th in offensive success rate at 42.6%. They ranked 17th in passing efficiency at -0.003 EPA/play, and 14th in passing success rate at 46.8%. They barely rushed enough to generate meaningful statistics. On 10 rushing attempts, they averaged an appalling -0.696 EPA/play which, amazingly, was only the 2nd worst of the week (last place: Patriots, -0.750 EPA/play).
The Commanders’ success rate on 10 rushing attempts was 0.0%. Perhaps Bieiniemy actually did know what he was doing when he abandoned the run. One reason that for the failure of the running game might be that lead back Brian Robinson had nowhere to go. The Commanders averaged only 1.2 yards before contact on rushing plays, which was the second lowest in the league in Week 5 (Tie-26th out of 28 teams playing). Through 5 games, the Commanders have averaged 2.6 YBC/att, which ranks a respectable 14th in the league. However, they have had huge variance in YBC/att this season, ranging from 1st in the NFL in Week 3 against Buffalo to 31st the prior week against Denver.
How about that 2023 draft class? Through Week 5, the Commanders have had a total of 2 player-games started across their entire draft class. Surprisingly, that figure puts them in good company, with one exception. They are currently tied for 4th fewest starts by their draft class with the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The three teams with fewer starts by drafted rookies are the Bengals (1) ahead of San Francisco and Dallas (both 0). Sceptics among you might point out that it could be harder to earn starting time on those four teams than Ron Rivera’s Commanders. Shame on you.
The one 2023 Commanders’ draftee who has seen significant playing time has certainly made a huge impact on the field. Through Week 5, Commanders’ first round pick Emmanuel Forbes has allowed 344 receiving yards in coverage (68.8 yds/game), which leads all NFL defenders, not just rookies. That accomplishment is particularly impressive considering that he has only averaged 60.6% of defensive snaps. To put that figure in perspective, if Forbes played receiver, he would currently rank 16th in the league in total yardage.
Other than Forbes, the Commanders’ 2023 draftees have played a total of 10 offensive snaps and 4 defensive snaps. UDFA Mitchell Tinsley has also got on the field for 3 offensive snaps. Four of the Commanders’ 2023 draftees have had significant playing time on special teams, led by DE Andre Jones with 118 ST snaps. The only rookie to register any stats on special teams thus far has been Jartavius Martin who has played 77 ST snaps and recorded 1 tackle, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles and 1 penalty.
The Commanders’ defense has been the recipient of 5/7 1st and 2nd round picks during Ron Rivera’s tenure as head of football operations. That investment was rewarded on Thursday night when the Commanders conceded 40 points and 451 total yards to a Chicago offense which had averaged 18.75 points and 305 yards through the first 4 games. Someone needs to be fired.
The defensive player of the game was Redskins’ 2018 seventh round draft pick, Greg Stroman. Stroman made plays all over the field, recording 4 solo tackles and 3 assists, 1 tackle for loss, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, and 1 sack. Too bad Washington released him after Rivera’s first season. They could have used more players with that kind of energy against the Bears.
Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
These plays had the biggest impact on the Commanders’ probability of scoring or being scored upon, as quantified by Expected Points Added (EPA).
Q1
14:17, 3rd and 9 from CHI 26, Justin Fields completion deep left to D.J. Moore for 58 yds, EPA – 5.00
12:09, 3rd and 14 from WAS 20, Justin Fields pass complete deep left to D.J. Moore for 20 yd TD, EPA -4.26
6:39, 2nd and 7 at WAS 47, Khalil Herbert right tackle for 34 yds, EPA -2.59
1:52, 1st and 10 from CHI 31, Justin Fields pass complete short right to D.J. Moore for 39 yds, EPA -2.58
Q2
14:20, 3rd and 6 from WAS 11, Justin Fields pass complete short left to D.J. Moore for 11 yd TD, EPA -3.22
2:24, 1st and 10 from WAS 25, Sam Howell pass short middle intended for Curtis Samuel intercepted by Greg Stroman at WAS 36, EPA – 3.79
Q3
12:13, 1st and 10 from CHI 27, Sam Howell pass incomplete deep left intended for Terry McLaurin, pass interference on Tyrique Stevenson accepted for 25 yds, EPA 2.96
7:11, 2nd and 3 from WAS 24, Sam Howell pass complete deep right to Antonio Gibson for 41 yds, EPA 2.77
8:54, 2nd and 3 at WAS 37, Sam Howell pass completion to Logan Thomas for 8 yds, fumble forced by Terrell Smith, recovered by Terrell Smith, EPA -3.86
1:09, 2nd and 10 from CHI 37, Justin Fields pass complete short right to D.J. Moore for 32 yds, EPA -2.65
Q4
11:37, 1st and 10 from CHI 28, Sam Howell completion deep left to Curtis Samuel for 25 yds, EPA 2.8
6:38, 2nd and 10 at WAS 45, Sam Howell pass complete deep left to Terry McLaurin for 32 yds, EPA 2.66
5:14, 4th and 15 from CHI 28, Joey Slye 46 yd FG attempt no good, EPA -2.92
4:18, 3rd and 2 from CHI 44, Justin Fields completion short left to D.J. Moore for 56 yd TD, EPA -5.84
STATS AND SNAPS – OFFENSE
Quarterback
Sam Howell continued to put up good numbers against the Bears. In fact, for the first time in his young career, Howell smashed through the 300 passing yard barrier and led the NFL in passing yards (388) and completed passes (37), with a very respectable 72.5% completion rate. He did throw an interception, but his interception rate (2.0% of attempts) was only 12th highest in the league. While he did take the second most sacks, after the Giants’ Daniel Jones, his sack rate (8.9% of dropbacks) was lower than 8 other starters.
Perhaps the Commanders could give him a little help by not asking him to carry the whole offense, week in and week out. In Week 5, Howell had the most passing attempts of any starting QB. Of course, they had little choice because the running game was getting nowhere. But at least they could have blocked for him. In Week 5, Howell was pressured on 28.3% of dropbacks, second only to his opponent, Justin Fields (48.5%, not a typo). Out of 23 total pressures on Howell recorded by PFF, 15 were attributed to his offensive line.
Howell’s problems were not all on the line. None of his 5 sacks were attributed to a lost block. They would appear to be a result of continuing to hold onto the ball too long. His time to throw was down from his season high of 2.99 sec last week, but remained high at 2.84 sec. Overall on the season, Howell only has the 10th highest time to throw at an average of 2.9 sec. Even so, he gets the ball out quicker than Patrick Mahomes (2.95 sec), Josh Allen (2.94 sec) and Jalen Hurts (3.14 sec) among others.
For the benefit of those who are still wedded to the pre-season hype that the Commanders’ season is doomed because they are starting a 5th round QB, I will continue to put Sam Howell’s first full season starting in perspective. This week, in addition to the usual suspects (Manning, Brady, Brees) I will compare Howell’s game 6 stats to the last games started by the other active starting QBs with fewer than 10 starts under their belts.
In his sixth start, Howell had a better game passing than Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and 13x Pro Bowler/2x OPOY/Bert Bell Award Winner/Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees. Tom Brady’s 6th start, against the Falcons, was the second game in which he flashed what he was going to become.
As for the other QBs with fewer than 10 starts, one could easily argue that Howell had a better last game than all of the 2023 top 5 draft picks, except for all the sacks. Desmond Ridder had his breakout game this week against Houston. Bear in mind, Ridder has 50% more starts than Howell. So far, Howell is holding his own with the top QB prospects in the 2023 draft and only lagged behind Desmond Ridder in Week 5. Interestingly, Ridder is the only other QB picked after the first round and attracted more than his share of scepticism heading into the 2023 season.
Offensive Line
Pass Protection
The offensive line did their QB few favors against the Bears. To put their performance in context, PFF ranks Chicago’s defense dead last in pass rushing, with a grade of 52.3. Against the worst pass rush in the league, the Commanders’ offensive line allowed 15 total pressures, distributed as follows:
Saahdiq Charles – 5 hurries
Sam Cosmi – 3 hurries, 1 QB hit
Andrew Wylie – 3 hurries
Charles Leno – 2 hurries
Nick Gates – 1 hurry
As mentioned above, none of the sacks were attributed to the OL. That’s something, I guess.
Run Blocking
Washington only had 10 rushing attempts against Chicago, so there was not a lot of run blocking going on. Maybe Bieniemy abandoned the run because his line was not opening running lanes. Brian Robinson averaged just 0.8 yards before contact on 6 rushing attempts. That was the 54th lowest YBC among 56 players with a minimum of 5 rushing attempts in Week 5.
Penalties
On a positive note, Washington’s offensive line avoided penalties. Whoop de doo.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson was second to Sam Howell in rushing yards with just 6 carries for 10 yards (1.67 yds/carry). I feel sad just typing that. He had 4 receptions on 4 targets for 33 yards. That marks the first time in his professional career that he has had more receiving yards than rushing yards. No other Commander rushed for a single yard. How pathetic.
Antonio Gibson was third on the team in receiving with 4 receptions on 6 targets for 64 yards, including a long of 41 yards.
Feeding the ball to Robinson has been a key to Washington winning. Robinson has only had fewer than 50 rushing yards 5 times, and the Commanders lost 4 of those games (80%), including last week’s embarrassment at FedEx. Perhaps they should try to find a way to get the running game going again.
Wide Receivers
Eric Bieniemy really likes to spread the ball around. 11 Commanders had at least 1 reception on Sunday. Consequently, no receiver broke 100 yards, despite Sam Howell throwing for 388 yards.
Curtis Samuel led the wide receivers and was second on the team with 65 receiving yards (85.7% catch rate) and 1 TD. It is little wonder that he has become one of Sam Howell’s favorite targets. In Week 5 he ranked 15th among all NFL receivers with an average separation at the catch point of 3.8 yards. Through 5 weeks, he ranks 3rd in the league, with an average separation of 4.5 yds. He also ranks 4th in the league in catch rate at 85.2%. Why would you not throw to the guy who is always wide open and catches everything?
Terry McLaurin caught 4 of 5 targets (80% rec) for 49 yards with a long of 32. Jahan Dotson caught 3 of 5 passes for 30 yds. Jamison Crowder caught 2 or 2 targets for 21 yards. Dyami Brown caught 1 of 3 targets (33.3%) for 11 yards. And Byron Pringle caught 1 of 2 for 10 yards.
Penalties
For the second week in a row, Washington largely avoided penalties. The team’s 1 accepted penalty for 5 yards was on Byron Pringle for a false start. Jahan Dotson was also flagged for an illegal shift, but the penalty was declined.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas was Washington’s leading receiver against Chicago with 9 receptions on 11 targets (81.8% catch rate) for 77 yards and a TD. His one blemish was a lost fumble. Nevertheless, when throwing to Thomas, Sam Howell had a passer rating of 126.1. On the season, when targeting Thomas his passer rating is 119.2.
One reason that Thomas was so easy for Howell to find was that he was frequently wide open. In Week 5, Thomas was 5th in the NFL with an average separation at the catch point of 4.7 yards from the nearest defender. For this week, he even had more separation than Curtis Samuel. He ranked 15th in catch rate, which is also pretty good.
John Bates caught both of his targets for 19 yards and Cole Turner caught his only target for 9 yards.
There was so little run blocking going that there’s little point in talking about blocking grades.
STATS AND SNAPS – DEFENSE
Defensive Line
Montez Sweat showed up to play against the Bears, logging 4 solo tackles and 1 assist, 1 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 pass defended and 4 total pressures. He is currently on pace for 15 sacks this season. Chase Young was only credited with 0.5 sacks, but he made his presence felt with 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 TFL, and 8 total pressures.
In limited playing time, James Smith-Williams had 2 tackle assists. Casey Toohill did not register any defensive stats.
Jonathan Allen was active with 2 solo tackles and 5 assists, 1 TFL, 1 sack, and 3 total pressures. He also missed 2 tackles. Daron Payne also got in there with 1 solo tackle and 4 assists, 1 forced fumble, and 2 QB knockdowns. He also had 1 missed tackle.
John Ridgeway and Abdullah Anderson each had 1 solo tackle and 1 assist.
Linebackers
It might not have looked like it, but Cody Barton led the Commanders with 5 solo tackles and 3 assists. He also blitzed 3 times and recorded 1 QB hurry. In pass coverage, he was targeted 2 times and allowed 2 receptions for 12 yds and 1 TD. On the season he has allowed an 80% completion rate in coverage, giving up 96 receiving yards, 2 TDs and allowing 132.9 opposing passer rating.
Jamin Davis logged just 2 solo tackles and 1 assist. He blitzed twice, but did not get near the QB. He was targeted once in coverage for an incompletion. On the season, he has allowed a 63.6% completion rate in coverage, for 45 yards and an opposing passer rating of 72.2.
Cornerbacks
Coverage Alignments
Benjamin St-Juste took 30 snaps at boundary corner, 27 in the slot and 7 at box safety. That was the first time this season he has taken more snaps out wide than in the slot. Kendall Fuller played 53 snaps at boundary corner, 7 in the box, 3 in the slot and 1 on the DL. Emmanuel Forbes played 20 snaps at boundary corner, 2 in the slot and 2 in the box. Danny Johnson played 4 snaps at boundary corner and 1 in the box.
Coverage Performance
The two statistical services I use differ in their attribution of receptions. According to Pro Football Reference, Benjamin St-Juste had a flawless game in coverage, allowing 0 receptions on 5 targets with 2 pass breakups. Pro Football Focus with 1 of D.J. Moore’s receptions for 58 yards. PFF agrees on the 2 pass breakups, 1 against Moore and the other against Mooney. According to PFF, St-Juste had the lowest per snap reception rate of Washinton’s CBs allowing just 1 reception every 31 coverage snaps.
According to Pro Football Reference, Kendall Fuller allowed 4 completions in 5 targets for 90 yards and 3 TDs, which equates to an opposing passer rating of 158.3. That coverage performance is tied with two other games for the worst in his professional career, but edges out the 2020 Lions game and a 2019 game with the Chiefs against the Jaguars by virtue of the 3 allowed TDs. According to PFF, he only allowed 3 receptions on 4 targets for 70 yds and TDs and an opposing passer rating of 156.3. That isn’t a whole lot better.
PFR and PFF agree that Emmanuel Forbes allowed 3 receptions on 3 targets for 76 yards, but thankfully no TDs. He made 1 solo tackle and missed 2 tackles.
In only 5 defensive snaps, Danny Johnson was targeted once for no reception and made 1 solo tackle.
Emmanuel Forbes Season Update
In the 2023 draft, the Commanders picked Emmanuel Forbes in the first round over Christian Gonzalez and a few other CBs who were more highly rated on most analysts’ boards. The rationale given for selecting the SEC interception leader that early was that they wanted to see an increase in turnovers by the secondary. How has that gone so far?
Through five games, among 16 CBs in his draft class with a minimum of 50 coverage snaps, Forbes leads the rookie class with 5 pass breakups and is one of only 5 rookie CBs with an interception (UDFA Christian Izien leads with 2).
Unfortunately, Forbes also ranks dead last in receptions allowed (20, tied with Tyrique Stevenson), receiving yards allowed (344, next highest Tyrique Stevenson 299 yds), and allowed reception rate (6.4 coverage snaps/reception). The receptions and receiving yards allowed figures are all the more remarkable considering that he has only played the 6th most coverage snaps. Forbes is also tied with Devon Witherspoon, Brian Branch, Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins for second most TDs allowed (2), behind leader Tyrique Stevenson with 3.
To this point in his rookie season, Forbes is one of the leading ballhawks in the rookie class, but is also the leakiest CB in coverage among those who have got significant playing time, by a substantial margin. The leading shutdown corner in the class so far is DJ Turner II (64 coverage snaps, 8 targets, 1 rec, 4 yds, 59.0 cov snaps/rec).
Safeties
Coverage Alignments
Kamren Curl took 35 snaps at box safety, 15 at Buffalo Nickel/slot, 8 at free safety, 4 lined up on the DL, and 2 at boundary corner. Darrick Forrest played 33 snaps at free safety, 19 in the box, 7 at Buffalo Nickel/slot, and 2 at boundary corner. Percy Butler took 16 snaps at free safety, 9 in the box and 2 at slot corner.
Defense
Forrest was second on the team in tackles with 6 solo and 1 assist and 1 missed tackle. He allowed 2 receptions on 4 targets in coverage for 65 yards.
Curl had 4 solo tackles and 2 assists. He allowed 2 receptions on 2 targets in coverage for 15 yards.
Butler had 1 solo tackle and 1 assist with 1 missed tackle. He was targeted once in coverage and allowed a reception of 23 yards.
STATS AND SNAPS – SPECIAL TEAMS
Joey Slye made field goals from 51 and 32 yards. He also missed one from 46 yards with Washington trailing by 10 points at 5:14 remaining in the fourth quarter (-2.92 EPA). Instead of cutting Chicago’s lead to 1 TD, that missed kick preserved their lead, which was extended three plays later to 16 points. Slye did not attempt any extra points because Washington went for 2 after each of their TDs, converting 1 and missing the other.
Tress Way punted twice for 103 yards (51.5 yds/punt) with 17 return yards (43.0 net yds/punt). This game marked his second longest total yardage per punt, and his longest net yardage per punt of the season. For the 3rd week in a row, he failed to land any punts inside the opponent’s 20 yard line.
Jamison Crowder had 1 punt return for 20 yards, which marks his highest total and average return yardage of the season. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Crowder was the fastest player on a punt return in Week 5, reaching a top speed of 19.86 mph. That 20 yard return brings his season average up to 7.57 yards per return, just 0.23 yards behind Dax Milne’s 2022 average.
Antonio Gibson did not return any kicks because all of Chicago’s kickoffs went for touchbacks.
Jeremy Reaves and Percy Butler each had 1 tackle in special teams coverage. Quan Martin and Dyami Brown each missed a tackle.