Get right win or narrow victory over a weak opponent?
A week after suffering an embarrassing loss to a team that many thought was the worst in the league, the Commanders did just enough to get a road win against a team with a lot of parallels to their own situation. Was an 8 point victory over the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons enough to save Ron Rivera’s job? Probably not, but it was enough tone down the “fire them all” talk until the next game, at least.
SOME STATISTICS
Sunday’s win brings the Commanders’ record back up to 0.500. As of Week 7, the Commanders are 3-1 against teams with losing or tie records and 0-2 against teams with winning records.
The one word that best describes the Commanders’ season through Week 6 has been inconsistency. Each game seems to bring something new. Through the first 5 games, Washington established a pattern of starting slow in the first half and then picking up as the game progressed (except against Buffalo when they were just crushed). Against Atlanta, the offense flipped that script. In the first half, the Commanders’ gained 135 net yards and scored 17 points on 32 offensive plays. In the second half, they only gained 58 yards and scored 7 points on 18 plays.
The Commanders’ success rate on offense dropped from 43.8% of plays (13th in NFL) in the first half to 23.5% (29th out of 30 teams playing) in the second half. The success rate on rushing plays fell from 50% in the first half (12th in NFL) to 22.2% (23rd in NFL) in the second half. The success rate on passing plays fell from 40.9% (20th in NFL) in the first half to 25.0% (28th in NFL) in the second half.
Overall, the Atlanta Falcons absolutely dominated time of possession (36:23 to 23:37), total yardage (402 yds to 193 yds), passing yardage (296 to 121), 1st downs (25 to 13) and average yards per play (5.1 to 3.9). The Falcons also had 9 explosive plays (8 pass, 1 rush) to Washington’s 6 (5 pass, 1 rush).
Despite the lopsided time of possession, Washington did have 1 more offensive drive than Atlanta (12 to 11) and was a little more efficient at converting drives to scores (33.3% of drives ending in scores vs 27.3%) and more than twice as efficient at converting offensive plays to scores (8.0% scoring rate vs 3.8%).
The key to Washington overcoming Atlanta’s advantage in possession time and offensive production was turnovers.
Washington’s defense had 3 takeaways to the Falcons’ 0. That was the largest turnover differential in Washington’s favor since the 2021 season finale. It is very hard to lose a game with that large a turnover differential in your favor. In the last 20 years, Washington has had a turnover differential of +3 or more on 17 occasions. The team is 16-1 in those games. The last time Washington lost a game with a +3 turnover differential was November 27, 2005 against the San Diego Chargers. Chargers coach Marty Schottenheimer must have enjoyed that one.
Thanks to the Commanders’ defense, the threat from Atlanta’s feared trio of Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson never materialized. Washington held the Falcons’ backs to just 88 total rushing yards, and held Atlanta’s entire offense to just 3.7 YPC, even including Desmond Ridder’s 2 rushes for 18 yards.
The Commanders’ defense allowed the 3rd most total yardage (402 yds) in Week 6. They allowed the 5th most passing yards (296 yds), but only the 14th most rushing yards (106 yds).
While the defense gave up a lot of total yardage, they made key stops and turnovers when it counted. The Commanders ranked 14th in overall defensive efficiency at -0.112 EPA/play, their second highest mark since the opening game against Arizona, and only the second time this season they have had negative EPA/play on defense. That marked a sharp turnaround from last week when the defense was the least efficient in the NFL at +0.309 EPA/play. The defense ranked 11th in opponents’ success rate at 40% of plays.
Washington’s defense was 17th most efficient against the pass at -0.04 EPA/play, and ranked 24th in opponent’s passing success rate. They were 9th most efficient against the run at -0.253 EPA/play, and ranked 1st in opponent’s rushing success rate at just 18.5% of plays.
The Commanders’ offense ranked 30th in total offensive yardage out of 30 teams playing in Week 6. They ranked 26th in net passing yards (121 yds) and 24th in rushing yards (72 yds).
The Commanders did lead the league in one key offensive category, which helped to make the difference against the Falcons. They were one of only two teams with 3 passing touchdowns in Week 6, the other being Miami.
Week 6 was not a great one for NFL offenses. Only 8 out of 30 teams playing had positive EPA/play on offense. The Commanders ranked 12th in offensive efficiency, with an EPA/play of -0.029. However, they only ranked 24th in offensive success rate at 36.7%. That means what success they had on offense depended on a few big plays.
The Commanders offense was essentially equally efficient (or perhaps inefficient) on passing and running plays (-0.029 EPA/play run and pass), and had nearly identical success in both phases (36.7% passing, 36.8% rushing). They ranked 13th in passing efficiency, but just 25th in passing success rate. They ranked 12th in rushing efficiency and 17th in rushing success rate.
On major factor limiting Washington’s efficiency and success on offense was Sam Howell’s continuing assault on the QB sack record books. This week he helped Falcons’ DE Calais Campbell to achieve a career milestone, becoming the 6th active player with 100 sacks and the 41st player to do so since the NFL began recording sacks as an official statistic in 1982.
Howell is currently averaging 5.67 sacks per game, which has him on pace to smash David Carr’s single season record of 76 sacks taken. Of course, Howell has the advantage of playing in a 17 game season, while Carr only played 16 games (interestingly, Carr finished 3rd in ORoY voting, despite taking 76 sacks). Had Carr maintained the same sack rate for another game, he would have finished the season with 81 sacks. Not to worry, Howell still has him covered as he is currently on pace for 96 sacks. It could be argued that Howell’s sack total is artificially inflated by the 9 sacks he took in a single game against Buffalo. Aside from that game, Howell has maintained a perfectly consistent rate of 5 sacks per game throughout the season, which still has him on pace to edge out Carr at 85 sacks in a 17 game season. Don’t worry, Commanders’ fans. Sam’s got this.
Jamison Crowder was named special teams player of the week for his 61 yard punt return. That was the longest by a Washington player since Crowder’s 85 yard return for a TD against the Baltimore Ravens on October 9, 2016. Since Crowder left in free agency following the 2018 season, the highest total return yardage in a game by Washington was 55 yards, across 7 returns (long 16 yds), in last season’s finale against Dallas. The longest punt return by Washington since Crowder left for the Jets was 22 yards by Steven Sims against the 49ers in 2020.
The Commanders were penalized 6 times for 40 yards, with all but 1 for 10 yards called on the defense.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
These plays had the biggest impact on the Commanders’ probability of scoring or being scored upon, as quantified by Expected Points Added (EPA). Criterion: EPA > +/-2.0; Positive EPA favors Washington.
Q1
13:42, 3rd and 9 at WAS 26, Sam Howell pass complete deep right to Curtis Samuel for 16 yds, EPA 2.22
11:15, 3rd and 9 at ATL 45, Sam Howell complete deep right to Terry McLaurin for 22 yds, penalty on ATL declined, EPA 2.62
Q2
13:34, 4th and 4 from ATL 29, Bradley Pinion punt 43 yds returned by Jamison Crowder for 61 yds, EPA 3.4
8:23, 4th and 3 at WAS 48, Desmond Ridder pass incomplete short right intended for Bijan Robinson, EPA 2.2
7:33, 4th and 1 at ATL 43, Sam Howell left tackle for 4 yards, EPA 2.58
3:56, 3rd and 5 at ATL 30, Desmond Ridder completion short middle to Kyle Pitts for 19 yds, EPA -2.15
2:38, 3rd and 7 at WAS 48, Desmond Ridder complete short left to Bijan Robinson for 22 yds, EPA -2.48
2:00, 1st and 10 at WAS 26, Desmond Ridder pass incomplete, intentional grounding penalty for 16 yds, EPA 2.7
Q3
13:01, 3rd and 7 from ATL 45, Desmond Ridder pass short left intended for Van Jefferson intercepted by Kendall Fuller at 50 yard line and returned for 23 yds, EPA 4.67
12:12, 2nd and 7 from ATL 24, Sam Howell complete short right to Brian Robinson for 24 yd TD, EPA 3.36
8:37, 3rd and 3 at ATL 44, Desmond Ridder sacked by Casey Toohill for -11 yds, EPA 2.27
Q4
14:16, 4th and 4 from WAS 15, Desmond Ridder pass complete short middle to Mack Hollins for 7 yds, EPA -2.85
10:25, 1st and 10 from ATL 11, Desmond Ridder complete deep right to Drake London for 32 yds, offside penalty on Montez Sweat declined, EPA -2.17
6:56, 3rd and 9 at WAS 31, Desmond Ridder sacked by Cody Barton for no gain, play negated by roughing the passer penalty on Cody Barton for 15 yards and automatic first down, EPA -2.17
5:17, 3rd and 7 from WAS 7, Desmond Ridder pass short right intended for Drake London intercepted by Benjamin St-Juste in the end zone, EPA 4.09
2:30, 4th and 8 from ATL 44, Desmond Ridder pass incomplete deep middle intended for Bijan Robinson, broken up by Danny Johnson, EPA 2.19
0:31, 3rd and 1 at WAS 34, Desmond Ridder pass short left to Bijan Robinson intercepted by Jamin Davis at WAS 26, EPA 3.35
STATS AND SNAPS – OFFENSE
Quarterback
Sam Howell threw for only 151 yards in Atlanta, his lowest total as pro. Nevertheless, that brought his career total to 1,669 yards, which is the most by any Washington QB through their first 7 games. He also set a new career high with 3 TD passes and recorded a new personal best passer rating of 119.7. On the other hand, his Total QBR of 37.1 was the lowest of his career to date and ranked 20th among NFL starters. This was a down week for QBs, in general, with only 4 starters recording QBRs above 60 and 21 having QBRs below 50.
Against Atlanta, Howell had season lows of completions (14), passing attempts (23) and completion percentage (60.9%). He took his customary 5 sacks, but because he made so few passing attempts, he had his second highest sack rate of the season (17.9% of dropbacks), behind only the Buffalo game (23.7%). His sack rate this week was nearly double his season low of 8.9%, set last week against Chicago. He was pressured on 37.9% of dropbacks, his second highest of the season (38.5% against Buffalo). PFF attributes 8 of 13 total pressures to missed blocks by the O-Line, but only 1 of the 5 sacks (Sam Cosmi).
Pro Football Reference counted 4 bad throws. Howell’s 19% bad throw rate was his second highest of the season (20.7% against Buffalo), but was only the 15th highest among NFL starters in Week 6.
In my ongoing effort to remind people that it takes time for most QBs to come up to NFL speed, this week I compared Howell’s stat line to the 7th starts by three of the greats of the modern era as well as this week’s results from the other starting QBs drafted in 2022 and 2023.
If you thought Howell’s sacks were bad, how about Tom Brady taking 7 and turning the ball over twice? Peyton Manning’s numbers were nearly identical to Howells, except that he made more passing attempts and took fewer sacks. It is worth noting, however, that his 7th start was one of only 2 games in his rookie season with no interceptions. Through 7 starts, Howell has only 7 INTs compared to Manning’s 14.
As for the 2022 and 2023 draft classes, the grass was not obviously much greener anywhere else in Week 7. Howell had his season low QBR this week. For the year, his total QBR of 46.8 only trails NFL leader Brock Purdy (76.9) and CJ Stroud (55.5) in these draft classes. He is well ahead of the first QBs drafted in 2022 (Kenny Pickett, 20th pick, QBR 33.5, NFL rank 32nd) and 2023 (Bryce Young, 1st overall pick, QBR 33.1, NFL rank 33rd).
Offensive Line
Pass Protection
Usual starter Charles Leno had to miss this game, due to a family tragedy. Cornelius Lucas performed well in his place in the passing game, recording the highest PFF pass blocking grade on the team, and allowing no pressures. The rest of the line did better than last week (15 pressures allowed), but still allowed 8 total pressures, distributed as follows:
Andrew Wylie – 3 hurries, 1 QB hit
Nick Gates – 1 QB hit, 1 hurry
Sam Cosmi – 1 sack
Saahdiq Charles – 1 hurry (down from 5 last week)
For the season to date, Andrew Wylie has allowed 22 total pressures, which is the 6th most among NFL tackles. He has allowed 1 fewer pressure than Mike McGlinchey, whom Denver signed in the offseason to an $87.5m contract with $35m fully guaranteed, making Wylie a bargain at $24m over 3 years with only $12m guaranteed.
Run Blocking
According to PFF, Washington’s two best run blockers in Atlanta were tight ends Logan Thomas and John Bates. The top ranked offensive lineman, Nick Gates had the third highest run blocking grade on the team at 61.4. Andrew Wylie ranked 4th at 60.9. And that’s where it gets alarming. The next highest offensive lineman, Cornelius Lucas, ranked 15th on the team, behind a host of players including all 5 WRs, with a run blocking grade of 52.5. Cosmi was next at 47.7 and Saahdiq Charles was dead last at 42.7.
If PFF’s blocking grades mean anything, Washington’s RBs should have struggled to find running lanes. That doesn’t appear to have been the case. Against Atlanta, the Commanders’ RBs averaged 3.4 yards before contact per rushing attempt. Sam Howell brought the team average down to 2.6 YBC/att, but even so the Commanders ranked 16th in the NFL. So, perhaps PFF run blocking grades don’t equate to RBs having room to run, which makes you wonder what they do mean, if anything.
Penalties
One area in which the OL has definitely improved this season is penalties. This week the OL only drew 1 flag, when Nick Gates was called for offensive holding for 10 yards.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson led the Commanders with 31 rushing yards on 10 attempts (3.1 Y/A). Rookie Chris Rodriguez was not far behind him, in only his second appearance on offense, with 23 yards on just 4 attempts. Rodriguez led the team in rushing average at 5.75 yards per attempt. Antonio Gibson rushed 3 times for 15 yards (5.0 Y/A).
Robinson ranked 3rd on the entire team in receiving, catching 2 targets for 25 yards, with one of those being a 24 yard TD reception. Robinson had the 2nd most total yards from scrimmage (56 yds) on the team after Terry McLaurin.
Antonio Gibson added a 1 yard TD reception on his only target.
Wide Receivers
In contrast to last week, when 11 Commanders had at least 1 reception, in Atlanta Sam Howell only threw passes to 7 receivers and only 5 of them managed to catch that ball. The only two wide receivers with receptions were Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel.
McLaurin was targeted on 11 of Howell’s 23 passing attempts and made 6 receptions (54.5% catch rate) for 81 yards. The low catch rate wasn’t entirely McLaurin’s fault, since there was at least one questionable pass interference non-call.
Catch rate has not been an issue for Curtis Samuel who hauled in the 4 passes thrown his direction for 42 yards and 1 TD, to rank 2nd on the team in receiving yardage. Through 6 weeks, Samuel ranks 3rd in the NFL with a catch rate of 87.1% (17/19 targets).
Jahan Dotson and Dyami Brown both failed to hang on to their single targets. Pro Football Reference did not credit Dotson with a drop, despite the fact that a ball hit him in the hands and fell to the ground. Through 6 games, Dotson has a catch rate of 54.8%, with 1 credited drop. Brown has a nearly identical catch rate of 54.5%, with no dropped passes.
Blocking
According to PFF, WR Curtis Samuel was the Commanders’ 5th best run blocker in Week 6. His run blocking grade of 60.7 put him well ahead of starting offensive linemen Cornelius Lucas (52.5), Sam Cosmi (47.7), and Saahdiq Charles (42.7). Terry McLaurin was just behind Samuel with a blocking grade of 60.4, which also had him well ahead of 60% of the starting offensive line. While Jahan Dotson did not record a reception, he also held his own with a run blocking grade of 60.1 on 11 run blocking snaps. Since he isn’t doing much this season as a receiver, he might be worth a try at right tackle.
Penalties
The wide receivers cleaned up their act this week and did not draw a single flag.
Tight Ends
A week after leading the team in targets and receptions, Logan Thomas got just one target, which he caught for 2 yards. That effort led the TE group in Week 6.
Unlike last week, the TEs did a fair amount of run blocking this week. And according to PFF, they were the best blockers on the team. Logan Thomas led all Commanders’ players with an 83.4 grade on 17 run blocking snaps. John Bates was second with a grade of 62.5 on 11 blocking snaps. Had a 60.3 grade on only 6 run blocking snaps.
STATS AND SNAPS – DEFENSE
Defensive Line
DE Casey Toohill made the most of his opportunity, when Montez Sweat left the game with an injury. In only 18 defensive snaps, Toohill recorded 2 sacks for 11 yards, 1 QB knockdown and 1 tackle for loss on a Desmond Ridder fumble recovery.
For two guys in contract years, the starting DEs were very quiet. Montez Sweat left the game early after only recording 1 solo tackle. Chase Young had only 1 assisted tackle and 1 pressure, while missing 2 tackles, including one where Desmond Ridder escaped his grasp to avoid a sack and ran for a first down.
In less than half as many snaps as Young, rotational DE James Smith-Williams had 1 tackle assist and 3 QB pressures. Efe Obada had 1 tackle assist, and Andre Jones did not register any defensive stats.
While the starting DEs were taking the afternoon off, the DTs showed up to play. Jonathan Allen had 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 1 QB knockdown. Daron Payne had 2 solo tackles, 2 tackles for loss and a fumble recovery, but also missed a tackle. John Ridgeway had 2 solo tackles and deflected a pass.
Penalties
The defensive line was flagged for 3 penalties for a total of 5 yards: Chase Young (neutral zone infraction, 3 yds), Daron Payne (neutral zone infraction, 2 yds), Montez Sweat (offside, declined).
Linebackers
Much maligned Cody Barton had his best day as Commander thus far. He led the team in tackles with 9 solo, 5 assists and 1 TFL. He also blitzed 4 times, producing 1 QB hurry. In pass coverage, he was targeted 5 times and allowed 4 receptions for 27 yards, with an opposing passer rating of 89.2.
Jamin Davis played fewer snaps than Barton, as usual, but had even more impact when he was playing. He recorded 4 solo tackles and 4 assists, 1 sack, 1 pass breakup and the game sealing interception. In coverage, he allowed just 2 completions on 4 targets for 23 yards and an opposing passer rating of 28.1.
In answer to fans prayers, Khaleke Hudson finally saw the field. In only 10 defensive snaps, he recorded 2 solo tackles, including stuffing a two point conversion, as well as 1 assist. He was targeted once in coverage, allowing a 22 yard reception.
Fans who looked closely may have noticed David Mayo on the field for 2 defensive snaps. He was targeted once in coverage for an incompletion.
Penalty
The Commanders’ seemingly costliest penalty was called on Cody Barton. He was flagged for roughing the passer for coming in high on a sack of Desmond Ridder on a 3rd and 9 play from the Washington 31 with 6:56 remaining in the 4th quarter and the Falcons trailing by 8 points. Instead of leaving the Falcons at 4th and 17, facing a 56 field goal attempt, the penalty gave them a 1st and 10 from the Washington 16. Fortunately for Barton, Benjamin St-Juste bailed him out 6 plays later by intercepting Ridder in the end zone.
Cornerbacks
Coverage Alignments
Kendall Fuller lined up at boundary corner on 80 snaps with 1 in the box. Benjamin St-Juste played 69 snaps at boundary corner, 7 in the box, 4 at slot CB and 1 lined up on the DL. Danny Johnson played 45 snaps at slot corner, 4 in the box, 2 at boundary corner and 1 at free safety. Quan Martin made his first appearance on defense, playing 4 snaps at free safety, 2 at slot corner and 1 in the box.
Coverage Performance
With Emmanuel Forbes benched, Desmond Ridder had to pick on someone else and he settled on Benjamin St-Juste. St-Juste was targeted 10 times and allowed 8 completions (80% completion rate) for 109 yds. However, the targets that weren’t caught resulted in 1 interception in the end zone and 1 pass breakup. St-Juste allowed receptions in coverage at a rate of 6.4 coverage snaps per reception, which was the second highest on the team after LB Khaleke Hudson.
Kendall Fuller was targeted a season high 10 times and allowed 7 receptions for 67 yards and 1 TD. He also made a spectacular diving interception and broke up a pass. He was the 3rd most prolific tackler with 9 solo tackles. He allowed receptions at a rate of 7.3 coverage snaps per reception.
Danny Johnson was only targeted 3 times and allowed 2 completions for 17 yards. His reception rate in coverage was the lowest on the team, with an average of 20.5 coverage snaps between receptions.
Quan Martin had 1 solo tackle and 2 assists, and was not targeted on 6 coverage snaps.
Penalties
Benjamin St-Juste led the Commanders with 3 total penalties, 2 of which were accepted (face mask, pass interefence) for 16 yards. Danny Johnson was also called for pass interference for 9 yards.
Safeties
Coverage Alignments
With Darrick Forrest out, Kamren Curl had a different distribution of coverage alignments to his usual pattern. He played 43 snaps at free safety, 26 snaps in the box, 12 snaps at slot CB/Buffalo Nickel, and 2 at boundary corner.
Percy Butler also played predominantly at free safety, with 65 snaps in deep coverage, 8 in the box, 8 at slot corner and 2 lined up on the defensive line.
Defense
Kamren Curl was second on the team in tackling, with 8 solo efforts and 3 assists. In coverage, he was targeted 6 times and only allowed 1 reception for 16 yds (16.7% reception rate), with an opposing passer rating of 39.6.
Butler made 1 solo tackle with 2 assists. He was targeted 3 times in coverage and allowed 1 reception (33.3% reception rate) for 17 yards, with an opposing passer rating of 53.5.
STATS AND SNAPS – SPECIAL TEAMS
Jamison Crowder’s 61 yard punt return brings his season average up to 14.25 yards per return. In three successive weeks he has returned punts for 14, 20 and 61 yards. This is the first time that he has exceeded Dax Milne’s 2022 season average of 7.8 yards per return, and now he is close to doubling it. Crowder currently has the 6th highest average among players with 5 or more punt returns and he has yet to muff a catch or turn the ball over.
Antonio Gibson returned 1 kickoff for 13 yards.
Joey Slye had a perfect stat sheet, nailing his 1 field goal attempt from 37 yards and going 3/3 on extra points.
Tress Way punted 6 times for 260 yards and an average of 43.3 yards per punt. His 6 punts were returned for only 11 yards, resulting in 41.5 net yards per punt. He landed 3 of his punts within Atlanta’s 20 yard line, which triggers a donation of $3000 to Compassion International to combat child poverty through his commitment to Punts for Purpose, started by Falcons’ punter, Bradley Pinion. Pinion donated $2000.
Jartavius Martin was the Commanders’ most active player in special teams coverage, making 1 tackle and 1 assist, and missing 1 tackle.
Three players making their first appearances of the season were right behind Martin. Terrell Burgess was made 1 tackle and 1 assist, but no missed tackles. Tariq Castro-Fields had 1 tackle in coverage, and De’Jon Harris had 1 assist.
There were no special teams penalties this week.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports