The numbers say fire Ron Rivera
In last week’s Stats & Snaps, I posed the question, “Was an 8 point victory over the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons enough to save Ron Rivera’s job?” The team’s complete collapse against the 1-5 Giants in Week 7 seems to have answered the question.
SOME STATISTICS
Following Sunday’s comprehensive loss, the Commanders currently rank 20th in points scored and 29th in points allowed. They rank 23rd in total yardage and 29th in yards allowed on defense.
Heading into the season the expectation was that the Commanders offense would be much improved due to upgrades at QB and Offensive Coordinator. As we approach midseason, the Commanders are 15 points ahead of where they were at this time last year (140 pts vs 125 pts). However, their total yardage is 201 yds behind last year (2,085 vs 2,286). The Commanders net passing yardage (1,482 yds) is 65 yards lower than last year; and their rushing total is 136 yards lower. To this point, the expected improvement in offensive production has yet to materialize.
On Sunday, the Commanders gained just 273 total yards on offense against a Giants defense that had allowed an average of 364.5 yards per game through the first 6 weeks of the season. They scored just 7 points against a Giants team that had been giving up 27.8 points per game before their meeting.
In 5 of 7 games this season, the Commanders have trailed at the half. Against the Giants, Ron Rivera took his signature slow starts to a new level. The Commanders gained just 46 net yards in the first half (15 yds rushing, 31 yds passing), earned 2 first downs, converted 0/7 third downs and never made it to the Giants’ red zone. All the while, they allowed 5 sacks and gave up an interception.
The Commanders’ offense struggled to keep drives going until the end of the third quarter. In the first 3 quarters of the game only 2 of 12 drives went for more than 4 plays. The main reasons for the failure to sustain drives were failure to convert when facing 3rd and 10 or more yards to gain (6/10 cases) and/or taking sacks on 3rd down (3/10 cases). The only scoring drive was on a short field when Dyami Brown recovered a muffed fair catch at the Giants’ 21 yard line.
The Giants sacked Sam Howell 6 times, bringing his sack total to 40 in just 7 games. He has taken 14 more sacks than Carson Wentz did in 7 starts for the Commanders last season.
Howell has now been sacked for 267 yards. His total sack yardage is more than any of Washington’s skill players have gained from scrimmage this season, other than Brian Robinson (438 yds), Terry McLaurin (432 yds) and Curtis Samuel (330 yds).
This was the first game in which the majority of sacks could not be attributed to Howell holding the ball too long. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), 4/6 sacks were due to missed blocks, 3 by the OL (Charles Leno, Saahdiq Charles, Nick Gates) and 1 by RB Brian Robinson.
In fact, out of 20 total defensive pressures on Howell, PFF attributed 18 to lapses by blockers, with 15/18 attributed to the offensive line. Therefore, only 2 sacks out of 20 total pressures couldn’t be directly attributed to poor blocking. For his part, Howell did a good job of getting rid of the ball quickly, recording a new career low average time to throw of 2.60 sec.
According to PFF, Howell was pressured on 20/49 dropbacks (41%). Pro Football Reference (PFR) scores pressures more conservatively. According to PFR, Howell was pressured 13 times, for a pressure rate of 26.5%, which was the 5th highest in the NFL in Week 7.
The Commanders’ defense did hold the Giants to just 14 points. While that would ordinarily indicate a good effort, the Giants are the lowest scoring team in the NFL, with a season average of only 11.8 pts/game. The Commanders allowed their third highest score of the season. The two touchdowns New York scored in the first half were their first touchdowns on offense since the Week 3 loss to San Francisco.
Washington’s defense did well against the run, holding the Giants to just 106 yards on 32 carries. Their average of 3.3 yards per carry was the 6th lowest out of 26 teams playing in Week 7.
The defense did not do as well against the pass, allowing 18 completions on 29 targets (62.1%) for 250 yds with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Tyrod Taylor’s 112.7 Passer Rating was the 5th highest in the NFL in Week 7. To put those numbers in context, the Giants’ Passer Rating and average gain per passing attempt (8.6 yards) set new high marks for the season. This was only one of two games in which the Giants scored passing touchdowns, the other being against Arizona in which they also scored 2 TD. Lastly, the Giants’ total passing yardage was their second highest of the season (season high: 312 yds against the Cardinals).
The Commanders have been vulnerable to explosive passing plays all season, and that proved to be their key weakness against the Giants. Washington’s defense surrendered 194 of the Giants’ 250 total passing yards (77.6%) and 1 of 2 TDs allowed on 7 completions of 16 to 43 yards.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Commanders’ pass rush, playing against an injury-ravaged Giants’ offensive line, pressured Tyrod Taylor 8 times (4 hurries, 4 sacks) resulting in a pressure rate of 22.2% of dropbacks. That figure marked the third lowest pressure rate faced by a Giants’ QB this season (lowest Arizona 17.8%, 2nd lowest 49ers 19.4%).
Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
These plays had the biggest impact on the Commanders’ probability of scoring or being scored upon, as quantified by Expected Points Added (EPA). Criterion: EPA > +/-2.5; Positive EPA favors Washington.
Q1
10:35, 3rd and 6 at NYG 15, Tyrod Taylor pass complete deep right to Jalin Hyatt for 33 yards, EPA 3.08
8:25, 4th and 3 at WAS 24, Graham Gano 42 yard field goal no good, EPA 3.04
Q2
14:22, 3rd and 15 at WAS 15, Tyrod Taylor pass complete to Darren Waller for 15 yd touchdown, EPA -4.07
9:43, 2nd and 2 at WAS 43, Sam Howell pass deep left intended for Jahan Dotson intercepted by Deonte Banks at NYG 31 and retured for 6 yards, unnecessary roughness penalty on Andrew Wylie accepted for 15 yards, EPA -4.19
9:05, 1st and 10 at WAS 32, Tyrod Taylor pass complete short left to Saquon Barkley for 32 yard touchdown, EPA -3.55
Q3
13:19, 4th and 4 at WAS 31, Tress Way punt 48 yards, fair catch muffed, recovered by Dyami Brown at NYG 21, EPA 5.48
11:08, 4th and 1 at NYG 12, Sam Howell pass complete short right to Jahan Dotson for 8 yards, EPA 3.5
1:06, 1st and 10 at WAS 10, Sam Howell pass complete deep right to Terry McLaurin for 27 yards, unnecessary roughness penalty on Xavier McKinney for 15 yards, EPA 2.77
0:07, 3rd and 9 at NYG 47, Sam Howell pass complete deep left to Terry McLaurin for 31 yards, EPA 3.22
Q4
13:28, 4th and 3 at NYG 9, Joey Slye 27 yard field goal attempt blocked by Leonard Williams, EPA -3.21
9:29, 2nd and 9 at NYG 37, Tyrod Taylor pass complete deep right to Jalin Hyatt for 42 yards, WAS challenge unsuccessful, EPA -3.24
7:51, 1st and 10 at WAS 10, Saquon Barkley up the middle for 2 yards, ball stripped and recovered by Daron Payne at WAS 8, EPA 4.53
1:01, 4th and 5 at NYG 7, Sam Howell pass incomplete short right intended for Jahan Dotson, EPA -2.6
STATS AND SNAPS – OFFENSE
Quarterback
Sam Howell had his worst game as a Commander, posting a total QBR of 20.6, which ranked 25th out of 26 starting QBs in Week 7. He had a career low completion rate of 22/42 (52.4%) and his second lowest yards per attempt (5.93) of the season, while throwing for 249 yards and 0 TDs to 1 INT.
He took 6 sacks for 52 yards. His sack yardage was higher than the total yards from scrimmage gained by any Washington player aside from Terry McLaurin. His season total of 40 sacks keeps him well on pace to smash David Carr’s all-time sack record of 76, even when adjusted for a 17 game season (adjusted total: 81 sacks). At his current pace of 5.7 sacks per game, he should reach 97 sacks after 17 games.
According to PFR, Howell was pressured 14 times for his third highest pressure rate of the season (28.6%). He threw 7 uncatchable passes for his 3rd highest bad throw rate of the season (18.9%). His reception rate was not helped by his receivers dropping two passes.
In my continuing effort to put his first season as a full-time starter in perspective, let’s see how his stat line compared to those of three modern greats and the three all-time sack leaders making their 8th starts:
Howell’s worst professional game wasn’t all that far below Peyton Manning’s 8th start, except for the sacks. He threw for more total yardage than Tom Brady and Drew Brees with 1 less interception. Howell had a better day in his 8th start than the current single season sack leader and took 4 fewer sacks than 2nd place Randall Cunningham. Jon Kitna had a cleaner game overall, but committed the same number of turnovers, while taking 6 fewer snaps.
Offensive Line
Ricky Stromberg played 22 snaps at left guard in relief of Saahdiq Charles who left the game with a calf strain. PFF was not too kind on the rookie’s performance, giving him a 33.1 grade for pass blocking (1 pressure allowed) and 49.6 grade for run blocking.
Pass Protection
According to PFF, the Offensive line gave up 15 total pressures distributed as follows:
- Nick Gates: 1 sack, 1 QB hit, 4 hurries
- Charles Leno: 1 sack, 2 hurries
- Sam Cosmi: 3 hurries
- Saahdiq Charles: 1 sack, 1 hurry
- Ricky Stromberg: 1 hurry
Run Blocking
Rather than citing subjective run blocking grades, which I don’t really trust, let’s have a look at how much room the Commanders’ RBs had to run. On 19 total rushing attempts, the Commanders averaged 2.4 yards before contact per rushing attempt, which was the 15th lowest among 26 teams playing last week. Not great, but not a complete disaster.
Penalties
After playing very cleanly for most of the seasons, the offensive line fell to pieces against the Giants. The were flagged for 7 total penalties, distributed as follows:
- Andrew Wylie: unnecessary roughness 15 yds, false start 5 yds
- Charles Leno: 2x false start for 10 yds, offensive holding – declined
- Saahdiq Charles: holding 10 yds
- Sam Cosmi: false start 5 yds
Running Backs
Brian Robinson led the Commanders running backs in playing time, but was only second on the team in rushing production with 8 carries for 23 yards and 1 TD. On one fewer carry, Chris Rodriguez gained 8 more rushing yards and was 154% more productive on a per touch basis (4.43 yd/carry vs. 2.87 yd/carry).
Antonio Gibson rushed 2 times for 7 yds and added 2 receptions on 2 targets for 24 yards.
The Commanders’ running backs averaged 1.8 yards before contact per rushing attempt (Robinson 1.6, Rodriguez 1.9, Gibson 2.0), and 1.8 yards after contact per attempt, meaning that half their work was done after being hit. Rodriquez was the leader in yards after contact at 2.6 YAC/att, followed by Gibson at 1.5 YAC/att and Robinson at 1.3 YAC/att.
Blocking
Brian Robinson allowed 1 sack and 1 hurry in pass protection. Antonio Gibson received the highest PFF pass blocking grade on the team (84.1), if you believe in such things.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin led all Commanders in receiving yards and total yards from scrimmage with 6 receptions on 9 targets (catch rate 66.7%) for 90 yards, his largest receiving total of the season. He also had his first dropped pass of the season.
2023 Commanders’ breakout candidate, Jahan Dotson, was 2nd among Washington WRs with 5 receptions on 8 targets (62.5% catch rate) for a new season high of 43 receiving yards. He also had a critical drop on a slightly underthrown pass on 4th and 5 from the Giants’ 7 yard line with 1:01 remaining in the 4th quarter. Perhaps he will breakout next week.
The usually reliable Curtis Samuel tied his season low catch rate of 50% set against Buffalo, hauling in just 4 of 8 targets for 25 yards.
Byron Pringle was targeted once and made the catch for 16 yards. Dyami Brown’s had no recorded stats on offense.
Tight Ends
Following an off week, Logan Thomas was back as the Commanders’ second leading receiver, catching 4 of 6 targets for 51 yards (66.7% catch rate). John Bates had 1 target but no reception. Cole Turner did not record an offensive stat.
Cole Turner allowed 1 pressure on 1 pass blocking snap. That’s pretty impressive.
STATS AND SNAPS – DEFENSE
Defensive Line
DEs
Chase Young seems to have noticed that he is playing for his next contract. Against the Giants he recorded season highs in sacks (2), tackles for loss (3) and tied his season high for solo tackles (3), and threw in 1 QB hurry for good measure.
Not to be outdone, Montez Sweat, also playing for his next contract, was second on the team in tackling with 3 solo efforts, 4 assists, 2 tackles for loss and a sack. He also had 2 QB hurries.
James Smith-Williams had 1 solo tackle and 2 assists. After a breakout game against the Falcons, Casey Toohill only managed 1 tackle assist against the Giants.
DTs
For the first time this season, John Ridgeway led the interior defensive linemen in tackling with 3 solo tackles and 3 assists.
Daron Payne continued his campaign of disruption with 2 solo tackles, 2 assists and 1 tackle for loss. His strip/recovery on Saquon Barkley for a turnover at the Washington 8 yard line, with 7:51 remaining in the 4th quarter was the Commanders biggest play on defense (-4.53 EPA) and their second biggest play in the game.
Jonathan Allen had a quiet afternoon by his standards, with just 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 QB hurry. Addullah Anderson did not record a defensive snap.
Linebackers
Those of you who said “hold the Mayo” might actually be glad he’s back. Mayo took to the field to replace an injured Cody Barton and led the Commanders in tackling with 9 solo tackles and 2 assists. Then again, maybe not. In coverage he allowed 3 completions on 3 targets for 55 yards and an opposing passer rating of 118.7.
Jamin Davis had 2 solo tackles and 5 assists, with 1 missed tackle. As bad as Mayo was in coverage, Davis was even worse, allowing 3 receptions on 4 targets for 60 yards and both of the Giants’ TDs, for an impressive opposing passer rating of 156.2. To put the cherry on top, Davis was also flagged for Washington’s only penalty on defense, a 5 yard illegal contact foul on 3rd and 11 at the Giants’ 19 yard line early in the 4th quarter.
While only playing 39% as many snaps as Davis, Khaleke Hudson had much more positive impact, recording 3 solo tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for loss. His coverage was as sloppy as Mayo, allowing 2 receptions on 2 targets for 29 yards and an opposing passer rating of 118.7.
Cornerbacks
Coverage Alignments
The Commanders seem to have settled on a new normal in the secondary, since Forbes was consigned to spot duty. Benjamin St-Juste has moved from the slot to full time boundary corner, playing 56 out of 68 coverage snaps out wide. Fuller has stayed where he always was on the opposite boundary (60/68 coverage snaps at wide corner), leaving Danny Johnson to man the slot (36/46 coverage snaps). Quan Martin played 3 snaps at box safety and 2 at slot corner. Emmanuel Forbes played 5 snaps as an extra wide corner.
Coverage Performance
Benjamin St-Juste had a mixed outing in coverage. On the one hand, he had 4 pass breakups. On the other, he was targeted 11 times and gave up 7 receptions (63.6% reception rate) and gave up 96 yards and an opposing passer rating of 91.5. He was the most successfully picked on Commander in coverage, averaging just 5.1 coverage snaps between receptions.
With Tyrod Taylor enjoying so much success throwing to receivers covered by St-Juste and the linebackers, Kendall Fuller didn’t have much to do. He was only targeted 3 times in coverage and gave up 2 receptions (18 coverage snaps/reception) for 15 yards and an opposing passer rating of 78.5.
Danny Johnson also seemed to benefit from Taylor’s attention being directed elsewhere, as he was only targeted once for an incompletion. He made 2 tackles and had one missed tackle.
Despite just playing 5 snaps, Jartavius “Quan” Martin managed to make 2 tackle assists and 1 pass breakup, which means he made plays on the ball on 60% of defensive plays when he was on the field. Emmanuel Forbes just made it onto the stat sheet by being targeted once without giving up a reception.
Safeties
Coverage Alignments
Since Darrick Forrest has been injured, Kamren Curl has spent more time at free safety than anywhere else, while still moving all over the secondary. Against the Giants, he played 30 snaps at free safety, 17 in the box, 13 in the slot, 5 lined up on the defensive line and 3 at boundary corner. Butler played 48 snaps at free safety, 13 in the box and 7 in the slot.
Defense
Kamren Curl is normally Washington’s leading or second leading tackler. Against the Giants, he had a precipitous drop in tackles, with just 1 solo and 2 assists, less than half his previous lowest total of the season. He faced 2 targets in coverage without conceding a reception.
Percy Butler made 2 solo tackles and 1 assist, with 1 missed tackle. He was targeted 2 times in coverage, allowing 2 completions for 24 yards.
STATS AND SNAPS – SPECIAL TEAMS
For the second week in a row, one of Washington’s biggest plays of the game was on special teams. In fact, Dyami Brown’s recovery of a muffed punt return at the Giants’ 21 yard line was the biggest play of the game by either team (EPA 5.48).
The next biggest play on special teams was an equally improbable blocked 27 yard field goal attempt by Joey Slye (EPA -3.21). Aside from that mishap, Slye had 2 kickoffs for touchbacks and made his 1 extra point attempt.
Jamison Crowder had a solid outing, returning 6 punts for 33 total yards with a long of 17. He had 1 fumble without losing possession.
Byron Pringle returned 1 kickoff for 38 yards at the beginning of the 2nd quarter and was tackled by our old friend, Bobby McCain. That kick return was the longest by a Commander this season by a full 10 yards. Pringle also played 10 snaps in special teams coverage.
Tress Way had his biggest day of the season because the offense gave him so many opportunities. He had 10 punts for 513 yards with only 11 return yards. His average of 51.3 yards per punt was only his 3rd highest of the season, but his average of 48.6 net yards per punt beat his previous high mark by a full 5.6 yards per punt. He landed 4 punts inside the Giants’ 20, which was another season high, and means that he will be donating another $4000 to fight child poverty.
David Mayo had 1 tackle in coverage. Khaleke Hudson made 1 coverage tackle and missed another. Tariq Castro-Fields had 2 penalties in coverage, but only 1 holding call was accepted for 10 yards.