It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…
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POSITIONAL SPENDING
Bobby Gould published an article a few weeks ago about extending Sam Cosmi, and some of his statements in that article made me go looking for some details at Over the Cap. I never did locate what I set out to find, but I did stumble across a positional spending table that I’ve seen before. I played with the table for a few minutes (it is sortable in both directions for every column in the table) and thought I’d share some of the statistics found there.
When I first started to work on this article in early June, I immediately ran into a problem. The allocation to the quarterback position for the Commanders was very close to the $6m cap hit attributable to Marcus Mariota. I knew that couldn’t be right. A quick check confirmed what I had already known — that several of Washington’s draft picks remained un-signed. When I looked at the other teams, I realized that there were simply too many unsigned draft picks across the league for the chart to be meaningful in any way.
I decided to wait until mid-July and try again. There are still 5 first-round picks from the ‘24 draft that remain unsigned, but I think that’s workable. I have listed those five players in the table below, along with the name and position of the player that gets pushed off of the top-51 offseason calculation.
Given the general nature of positional spending and the limited number of items I plan to focus on, making adjustments for these 5 players/3 teams (if needed) should be sufficient. The cap difference between Day 2 & 3 picks and the player each replaces is small enough (and there are few enough unsigned players) to make this trivial for the scope of this article.
Let’s look at a few of the headlines that may interest Washington fans.
The Commanders have the 8th cheapest offense in the NFL, accounting for $106.9m in cap space. I don’t even have to adjust for the Bears, Packers or Vikings, all of whom have un-signed 1st round offensive drafted players. Here’s the list of the 7 cheapest offenses with their offensive ranking and record from 2023:
In general, these cheaper 2024 offenses weren’t highly ranked in 2023. Only the Bills were in the top-10 offenses, and the Packers were the only other team in the top half of the league. The Bills and the Steelers are the only teams with double-digit wins.
- The Bills — the most successful of the low-cost offenses above — had the 9th highest spending on QB. Even with a rookie QB on the roster for the Commanders, there are 9 teams spending less on the position, including both the Bears and Vikings. The NFC Champion 49ers are lowest in the NFL at $5.6m.
- Only 6 teams are spending less on the OL than Buffalo in ‘24. The Bills are spending $35.2m on the OL; Washington is next-cheapest at $34.8m. The Seahawks are the thriftiest at $26.5m. The Panthers devote the most cap space to these big uglies at $73.1m. The super bowl champion Chiefs are #3 in OL spending at $70.6m.
- Only the Rams are spending less at the RB position ($5.13m) than the Bills ($5.6m). Washington is 18th in RB spending. The Saints, at $28m, spend $13.1m more than the next team on the list (the Cardinals). Alvin Kamara’s cap hit alone is more than any other NFL team’s total cap hit at the RB position for 2024.
- The Bills have the 5th-cheapest WR group in the NFL behind the Packers, Saints, Steelers and Ravens. The Commanders are the 12th most-expensive at $39.3m. What the Niners save at QB, they spend at WR; San Francisco has the most expensive WR group in the league at $55.2m.
- The Bills are largely undistinguished at tight end, ranking 14th in the NFL. The Commanders rank 21st at a budget-friendly $9m. The cheapest tight end room in the league is Arizona ($5.3m), while the most expensive is the Chiefs ($26.5m).
Things turn around a bit when we look at the defensive side of the ball.
Washington has the 12th most expensive defense in the NFL, accounting for $120m in cap space. Unsurprisingly, of the 7 teams that spend less on offense than Washington, 5 spend more on defense than do the Commanders. The two that don’t are the Buccaneers and Bills. The 49ers rank 3rd in spending for defense and the Ravens rank 8th.
- It will surprise no one to learn that the Commanders are #1 in the league in cap space devoted to interior defensive line at $49.5m. The Steelers and Falcons are the only other teams to spend more than $40m at the position group. The Cowboys devote the least cap space of any NFL team to the IDL at just $10.6m.
- Washington ranks 22nd in cap spending at the edge/DE position at $20.7m. The most expensive in the league is the Chargers at $60.8m (Raiders are #2 at $43.7m). Nobody spends less at the position than the Rams at $13.5m.
- The Commanders are about league-average in LB cap spending at $15.6m. The Bears spend the most ($35.7m) while the Chargers spend the least ($9m).
- At safety, Washington is again in the middle of the pack at #18, spending $14.6m. The Cardinals spend the most ($35.5m) while the Jets devote just $4.9m to this position.
- By this time, it will be no surprise to learn that Washington is in the middle of the league in CB cap spending, at $19.5m. No one spends more than the Jets at CB ($38.5m) and no one less than the Chiefs ($13m)
I think that it’s worth noting that, because the Commanders have so many players on 1-year contracts (or expiring contracts), the cap hit numbers for Washington are fairly indicative of actual contract dollars devoted to position groups.
Cap Space Update
Now that all of Washington’s draft picks are signed, it seems like a good time to update the Commanders’ estimated cap space. Per Over the Cap, the current estimated available cap is $37m.
This number is not final by any means. First of all, it is based on only 51 players, as per the offseason rules under the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). The final roster will, of course, include 53 players and another 16 practice squad members who will be charged to the team’s salary cap (and one International Player Pathway program player who is paid for by the league).
During the season, players get injured and others need to be signed to replace them. This is likely to account for $5m to $8m in cap space.
At the end of the season, adjustments will be made for such things as bonuses earned, player benefits paid out and the like.
By the time all is said and done, my best guess is that the Commanders will probably roll over between $24m and $30m in unused cap space.
Right now, Over the Cap estimates the Commanders’ available 2025 cap space at $71.2m. That number could jump to around $100m once the rollover is applied. There will be some opportunity to increase it further if Washington wants to consider moving on from any of its high-priced player contracts.
In 2025, Adam Peters will have the opportunity to re-shape the roster and use of cap space to suit his objectives. Heading into the ‘25 season, only 4 players currently under contract will have cap hits in excess of $10m: Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Andrew Wylie. In the case of each of these 4 players, the team could increase its available cap space by cutting or trading him. In fact, if Adam Peters were to move on from all 4 players, it would allow him to re-allocate $38.9m in cap space in an effort to optimize the roster and cap space allocation.
While the current roster looks like it is largely filled with ‘placeholders’ that allow the team to field a competitive but unspectacular team in 2024, it appears that Adam Peters is poised to use the 2025 draft, free agency and cap space to make a great deal more progress towards his ‘ideal’ roster next offseason when he will have almost complete freedom to shape it as he sees fit.