It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…
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TE Zach Ertz and RB Austin Ekeler each struggled with injury, availability and production last year, and the perception of the Commanders roster largely rests on the perception of these players, along with other veteran additions like Bobby Wagner, Nick Allegretti, Clelin Ferrell, and others. If Ekeler and Ertz can run it back to the earlier parts of their careers when they were highly productive, then they will be productive signings.
Yet, I find it reasonable to think that many of these veterans — and Wagner, Ertz and Ekeler in particular — were signed for their leadership and mentoring abilities as much as for their potential on-field production.
Ekeler will be paired with Brian Robinson, who has 2 seasons’ of experience comprising 27 games and 847 total snaps. Ekeler will likely be tasked with helping Robinson understand the intricacies of the run game designed by the veteran’s former head coach, Anthony Lynn, which is likely to be heavy on outside zone runs.
Brian Robinson
In his 27 career games, Brian Robinson has averaged 14 carries per game. In 2022, coming off of a preseason gunshot wound, he averaged 17 carries per game. Last season, in the Eric Bieniemy-called 2023 offense, BRob played 3 more games but tallied 27 fewer rushing attempts (though his targets and receptions more than tripled), and he averaged just under 12 runs per game.
Brian Robinson’s average yards per carry in his 27-game career is 4.0; he averaged 3.9 ypc as a rookie and 4.1 ypc in 2023.
Austin Ekeler
Over the past three seasons, these are Ekeler’s key rushing and receiving stats:
Last season (2023) Ekeler missed 3 games due to a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 1, and, according to Ekeler himself, when he returned to action in Week 4, he sprained the other ankle and was never at full speed in 2023. His season-long yards per attempt (3.5) fell below 4.2 for the first time in his career, while his yards per reception came in near his career average.
The most noticeable difference was the dramatic dropoff in touchdown production. Ekeler had been a fantasy darling in 2021 & 22, with 20 and 18 total touchdowns, respectively. That number fell off a cliff in 2023, with Ekeler scoring 5 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD. A 6-touchdown year is nothing to be ashamed of for most players, but it was a pretty dramatic change for Ekeler.
No. 30 says he is fully healthy and ready to put his career back on track in Washington.
If you use the average touches per game to compare Ekeler’s last three seasons (16, 17, 14 games) on an ‘apples-to-apples’ basis, here is what it looks like:
AS you can see, his total touches per 17 games would have been lowest in 2023 at 279 and highest in 2022 at 311.
Chris Rodriguez
As a rookie, Chris Rodriguez was active for 13 games. He had 51 carries for 247 yards and 2 receptions for 12 yards on 97 offensive snaps.
All other running backs
The Commanders have 3 other running backs on the current roster:
Austin Jones
Here’s what Pro Football Network said about Jones in a pre-draft profile:
It’s not a great time to be a running back who isn’t one of the very elite athletes in the NFL. A rotational backup rusher’s career depends highly on being in the right scheme, staying healthy, and maximizing opportunities.
Jones has some physical limitations concerning his overall upside, but he’s played well as both a workhorse and a backup throughout his career. That bodes well for him earning consideration as a late-round pick or undrafted free agent.
He carries a borderline draftable grade after considering how the NFL has devalued the position and the high number of quality backs available.
Jones’ stock can rise if he continues to evolve as a creative rusher and improves his impact as a pass blocker. Though his physical build won’t change much, mastering the nuance of the position can endear him to coaches looking for a trusted option.
Jeremy McNichols
In six seasons from 2017 – 2023, McNichols has played for 4 different teams in 5 stints, with the first and last (2017 & 2023) coming with the 49ers (hello Adam Peters). McNichols has 90 career rushing attempts, with nearly all of those coming in ‘21 & ‘22 with the Titans. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry with Tennessee over two seasons, and 7.4 yards per reception. In 128 total touches over two seasons, he scored 2 touchdowns and earned an AV (average value) of 2 in ‘21 and 3 in ‘22.
While he was active for a total of 5 games with the 49ers across 2 seasons, he recorded no offensive statistics.
He has 126 career special teams snaps, but no punt returns and only 2 kickoff returns with a lackluster average of 15.5 yards per return. At 28 years of age, McNichols is closer to the end of his unspectacular NFL career than the beginning.
Michael Wiley
Wiley is a limited runner, but has skills as a receiver. Here’s some of what the Draft Network had to say about him:
Wiley’s evaluation enters a new stratosphere as a pass-catcher—his third-down ability is evident. He’s comfortable running routes out of the backfield and out wide. Smooth hands and quick to work upfield. Not a twitchy or dynamic separator by any means, but has showcased the ability to sink, redirect, and change direction quickly against slower linebackers and smaller safeties. Willing in pass pro.
Overall, Wiley’s immediate path to snaps could come on passing downs where his ability out of the backfield should present opportunities.
Prospect Projection: Day 3 — Role Specific