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The 5 O’Clock Club: Player Overs/Unders for 2024 – Commanders Defensive Line edition

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Washington Commanders v San Francisco 49ers
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…

The 5 o’clock club is published from time to time during the season, and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussion at a time of day when there isn’t much NFL news being published. Feel free to introduce topics that interest you in the comments below.

CLICK HERE to see the full 5 o’clock club archive

I set the over/under. You vote. Feel free to explain why in the comments.

Jonathan Allen & Daron Payne

After two seasons of strong statistical results as a pair of interior pass rushers in 2021-22, Payne & Allen saw their sack totals fall off in 2023.


Phidarian Mathis

Phil Mathis has had an ice cold start to his NFL career. He played only 3 defensive snaps in his rookie season before being seriously injured. Last year, as he returned from injury, he was not active for the first 7 weeks of the season. In the final 10 games, he played 203 defensive snaps and was credited with 8 tackles.

Jer’Zhan Newton

Johnny Newton was seen by many draft analysts as an outstanding value when he was selected with the 36th pick in this year’s draft. In May, we learned that he had a foot injury and had to undergo surgery from which he is still recovering.

A Google search for recovery time from Jones Fracture surgery indicates 3-4 months as a standard time to resume all activities, including playing sports. The same website also lists multiple potential complications of the surgery. A four-month recovery from a mid-May surgery would mean a mid-September availability.

The Commanders play their first game of the 2024 season on September 9. They play a total of 4 games in the month of September, with the last of these being on September 30th.

At minicamp, Newton was seen and filmed wearing a walking boot and using his arms only to power a exercise cycle on the sidelines. Head coach Dan Quinn answered a question about Newton during minicamp, saying that the player had hit all of his markers post-surgery (about 4 weeks after we learned about it) and that the staff continued to monitor his progress.

Ultimately, if he misses a few games at the start of his rookie year, it shouldn’t really change his value as a player or the significance of the pick for the Commanders. The team has a deep group of players at the position with Payne & Allen backed up by John Ridgeway and others.

Dorance Armstrong

Snap Counts Table
Games Off. Def. ST
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct
2018 21 DAL DE 92 15 1 0 0% 273 29% 49 13%
2019 22 DAL DE 92 15 0 0 0% 262 26% 198 48%
2020 23 DAL DE 92 16 2 0 0% 369 33% 287 62%
2021 24 DAL RDE 92 13 5 1 0% 507 56% 84 23%
2022 25 DAL RDE 92 17 5 0 0% 543 47% 97 20%
2023 26 DAL DE 92 17 1 0 0% 446 42% 97 22%
Career 1 2400 812
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/17/2024.

Playing in Dan Quinn’s defense in Dallas, Dorance Armstrong played between 446 – 507 snaps each season from 2021 to 2023, which ranged from 42% to 56% of all defensive snaps he was available to play in those seasons. In the two most recent seasons, when he played in all 17 games, his snap share was 47% & 42%.

Clelin Ferrell

Defense & Fumbles Table
Games Def Interceptions Fumbles Tackles
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Sk Comb Solo Ast TFL QBHits Sfty AV
2019 22 OAK LDE 96 15 15 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 4.5 38 24 14 8 8 6
2020 23 LVR LDE 96 11 11 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 2.0 27 18 9 3 10 4
2021 24 LVR DE 99 16 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 14 8 6 1 6 1
2022 25 LVR DE 99 16 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 26 8 18 3 8 2
2023 26 SFO DL 94 17 17 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 3.5 28 15 13 6 13 8
Career 75 47 0 0 0 0 12 3 0 2 0 0 13.5 133 73 60 21 45 21
4 yrs LVR-OAK 58 30 0 0 0 0 11 2 0 1 0 0 10.0 105 58 47 15 32 13
1 yr SFO 17 17 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 3.5 28 15 13 6 13 8
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/17/2024.

In 75 career games, Clelin Ferrell has tallied 45 QB hits. His highest single-season total (13) was recorded last year with San Francisco; his lowest (6) was in 2021 with the Raiders.

Dante Fowler

Defense & Fumbles Table
Games Def Interceptions Fumbles Tackles
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Sk Comb Solo Ast TFL QBHits Sfty AV
2016 22 JAX DE 56 16 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 4.0 32 23 9 6 11 2
2017 23 JAX DE 56 16 0 0 2 0 2 53 1 8.0 21 18 3 7 10 3
2018 24 2TM DE-ROLB 15 6 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 4.0 30 23 7 5 6 4
JAX DE 56 7 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2.0 9 8 1 1 1 1
LAR ROLB 56 8 6 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2.0 21 15 6 4 5 3
2019 25 LAR LOLB 56 16 14 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 1 26 1 11.5 58 40 18 16 16 7
2020 26 ATL RDE 56 14 13 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.0 23 12 11 4 8 6
2021 27 ATL ROLB 56 14 6 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 4.5 36 21 15 6 8 3
2022 28 DAL DE 56 17 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 6.0 27 22 5 7 9 2
2023 29 DAL DE 56 17 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 4.0 13 8 5 5 7 2
Career 125 40 0 0 0 0 19 13 0 5 79 2 45.0 240 167 73 56 75 29
3 yrs JAX 39 1 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 3 53 1 14.0 53 41 13 14 22 6
2 yrs ATL 28 19 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 7.5 59 33 26 10 16 9
2 yrs DAL 34 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 10.0 40 30 10 12 16 4
2 yrs LAR 24 20 0 0 0 0 7 3 0 2 26 1 13.5 58 40 24 20 21 10
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/17/2024.

Dante Fowler has tallied at least one pass defended in every NFL season except 2017. His two best seasons for knocking down passes were 2016 & 2019, when he was credited with 6 and 5 PDs, respectively. He also added 5 PDs over the past two seasons playing for Dan Quinn in Dallas.

Incredibly, Fowler has also been credited with at least one force fumble every season of his career except for 2016, and he’s been responsible for 6 forced fumbles over past three seasons.

With 125 career games, Fowler averages 0.152 PDs per game (2.6 per 17 games) and 0.104 FFs per game (1.8 per 17 games).