It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…
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If Adam Peters really wants to strip the roster down to the bare bones to rebuild it in his image, then 2025 will be another season of dramatic roster change. But with Jayden Daniels in Year 2, and the rest of his Commanders draft class established in their roles, next year’s free agency won’t be focused on a lot of 1-year mid-tier veterans to build a temporary platform. Next offseason, Peters will select his second draft class, and he will need to make some significant free agent acquisitions designed to propel the team towards playoff contention. I think he’ll also have an eye on making the roster a bit younger so that 2026 can be a breakthrough year with a roster set up for sustained success.
In the effort to make all of this a reality, Peters may want to make a couple of deals that won’t be popular with fans; that is, he may find it necessary to trade away Jonathan Allen and Terry McLaurin, each of whom will be 30 years old in the 2025 season, and each in his final year under contract with the Commanders. McLaurin will have a $25m cap hit, and trading him would add $13.8m in available cap space. Allen will have a $23m cap hit, and trading him would add $17m to the available cap space.
Compensation
Of course, talk of trades always has to include talk of compensation. Nearly every fan thinks that players on his or her favorite team will bring more in trade than they actually will, and most underestimate what will be required to get a player away from another team. Age, contract value & duration, and on-field production are all factors in a deal, as well as the needs of the respective teams.
To provide some context, I looked at the player trades made in the 2024 offseason and picked a few that seemed relevant; they are summarized in the chart below:
The two that I think can be most instructive are the trades of Keenan Allen and Haason Reddick. Each is in the final year of his contract; each is a good or very good player at his position, and each is very near 30 years old. Keenan Allen was traded for a 4th round pick while Reddick was traded for a 3rd round pick that can become a 2nd if certain terms are met. Keenan Allen is an 11-year veteran whose per-season production is similar to that of Terry McLaurin, who is entering his 6th season. Reddick and Allen were drafted 13th & 17th overall, respectively, in the 2017 draft. Each has been to two Pro Bowls, though Reddick can also boast an All Pro season in 2022.
Looking at these two trades in particular leads me to think that an offseason trade for McLaurin or Allen would net between a 2nd and 4th round pick for each — call it the equivalent of two 3rd-round picks if both were traded.
As a fan, I don’t want to see this happen
As a Commanders fan, I can tell you lots of reasons why I wouldn’t trade either of these players. They are team leaders who were drafted by the franchise. Each is a tough and high-character guy. The Commanders are a better team with them than without them. They both are active in the Community and embraced by the fan base. I want to see both of them retire in burgundy & gold.
The argument for trading them anyway
Here, though, I’d like to lay out a few key reasons to trade both players — and the reasons I will offer here apply to both players.
First, each player will be in the final year of his contract in 2025. Washington will either have to pay a hefty price to retain them or let them walk in free agency in 2026, hoping for a compensatory pick in 2027.
Second, every team needs veteran leadership, and in 2024, these players are part of the overall strategy of having a veteran team that is on board with the coaching staff to establish the right (dare I say it?) culture. By 2025, the Dan Quinn message should be firmly understood by the players; the offensive and defensive schemes should be in place. It will be time to shift to younger players who can buy into that already-established ‘Commanders Way’ and carry it into the future for several more years. Allen and McLaurin will be better suited as veteran leaders on different teams.
Third, NFL careers are short, and players who hit the free agency market at 31 years of age don’t often have a lot of leverage. By trading these players to teams that want them in 2025 — if they are the right teams — Allen and McLaurin can be provided with the opportunity to be part of playoff-contending teams before it’s too late.
Fourth, trades will provide both draft capital and cap space to allow Adam Peters to build a younger, stronger roster. What could he do with a pair of 3rd round picks and $30m in additional cap space? My guess is that he could add more talent that would contribute for a longer time than if he were to let McLaurin and Allen play out the final year of their respective contracts.
In summary, the reasons to trade both players seem, to me at least, to out-weigh the reasons to hold onto them through the 2025 season. It would likely be better for the team, and possibly better for the players, to trade them to other teams that want them and need them to compete for a championship.
Expectations and opportunity in 2024
No one knows what the 2024 season will bring. I confess, if I were a betting man, I would bet the ‘under’ against the 6.5-win total and not the ‘over’. If, somehow, the Commanders burst out of the gates and mirror the success of the 2023 Texans — winning the division and making the playoffs with a rookie quarterback — then perhaps the 2025 scenario looks very different. I confess, I wrote all of this assuming yet another 3rd or 4th place finish in the NFC East as the conclusion to the upcoming season.
If my pessimistic view turns out to be correct, however, then there might be another scenario that is built on the same rationale that I ountlined above, but which could offer even better outcomes to the team and the two players (McLaurin and Allen).
The midseason trade deadline
The Commanders play their 9th game of the 2024 season on November 4th on the road against the Giants. The trade deadline is November 5th.
If Washington’s season is going badly with, say, a losing record overall and two losses to the Giants, then there could be the opportunity to do what the team did last season, and move two key players at the deadline. There are specific advantages to doing so:
- By being ‘sellers’, the Commanders could potentially command a premium in terms of draft capital demanded of a team that saw McLaurin or Allen as the key to a championship run to finish out the ‘24 season. In other words, Washington might get much more than just a pair of 3rd round picks.
- By trading the two at midseason, the effect on cap space could be enhanced. Frankly, trading Terry at mid-season would have little to no change on available cap space, but a mid-season trade of Jon Allen could increase the cap savings by roughly $7m (in addition to his $17m for 2025).
- Midseason trades would almost certainly maximize the players’ opportunities to go to teams that both valued them and that were in playoff contention, giving each the opportunity to be in the playoffs this season.
All things considered, I would rather have had Ryan Kerrigan be a “Redskin for life”, and I would prefer the same for players like Terry McLaurin and Jonathan Allen. But today’s NFL rarely allows for players to begin and end their careers in the same place; that’s why Bobby Wagner, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Jeremy Chinn and Frankie Luvu will be wearing burgundy & gold this season. Players go where they are wanted and needed, and where the opportunity is the greatest. Organizationally, the rational decision my be to listen very seriously to trade offers for Allen and McLaurin, whether in November or in the 2025 offseason.