How much value can the Commanders squeeze out of five draft picks?
With the 2025 draft quickly approaching I was able to coax the DraftBot back from a “working holiday” in Greenland to do its annual mock draft.
For those who don’t know the story, the DraftBot originated as a simple experiment to see if it was really as hard as Dan Snyder’s men made it appear to find a franchise QB. The answer was a resounding “no”. The DraftBot’s initial simple program demonstrated that all the Redskins had needed to do was use the first round picks they held in drafts with highly rated QBs available, and they would have had their choice of signal callers including Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger among others.
As if to prove the point, in his first draft at the helm, Adam Peters used essentially the same approach as the DraftBot’s core algorithm to select the best rookie QB that Washington has seen since Jack Espey picked Sammy Baugh sixth overall in 1937.
While most of us appreciate those kinds of moments of validation, the arrival of an expert front office in Washington actually created something of an existential crisis for the DraftBot. Fortunately, it recognized the need to adapt from its original core mission of poking fun at the previous owner’s incompetent front offices, in order to provide value for Hogs Haven readers.
Inspired by the regime change, the DraftBot applied the full power of its fifth generation bio-cybernetic processor to do a deep data dive into the drafting habits of the NFL’s highest performing front offices to learn how the best in the business approach such a fiendishly difficult and complex decision making process.
With another year’s worth of draft outcome data embedded in it’s neural network architecture, the DraftBot is back to test out what it has learned from studying draft outcomes of the best NFL front offices. In this year’s edition, the DraftBot attempted to emulate a few key elements of Adam Peters’ approach to the draft in San Francisco and Washington. These include seeking to optimize the number of selections in the first 100 picks and searching for players with exceptional ability combined with leadership and high football character.
The DraftBot’s Approach
For this exercise the DraftBot assigned its scouting director (me) to construct a draft board of players who aligned with Adam Peters’ preferences, as well as those of the coaching staff. Prospect talent and position value was balanced against team need in the manner described by Peters’ Director of College Scouting with the 49ers.
The initial vertical board was drawn from consensus draft boards (The Athletic for the top 100 players, Mock Draft Database thereafter), eliminating poor scheme and culture fits, and adjusting rankings according to coaching preferences. Prospects on the vertical board were then “stacked against the existing roster”. This involved adjusting rankings based on a prospect’s chance of earning playing time in competition with players on the existing roster.
This approach has the effect of factoring roster need into the draft board, as a secondary consideration to overall talent and position value, since players with little competition get a boost, while those who are likely to end up buried in the depth chart are downgraded. (The latter is largely a theoretical possibility since the Commanders don’t have many deep positions on the roster).
The DraftBot opted to use the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator, because it provides realistic trade offers, and has a similar board to draft consensus, which appears to be big improvement from previous years.
Commanders’ 2025 Mock Draft
Round 1, Pick 29
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
Trade: 29 to Eagles, Commanders Receive 32, 96
Based on his first draft in Washington, the DraftBot believes Adam Peters will not be happy with two selections in the top 100, and will seek to maximize the number and value of picks on the first two days of the draft. Peters also demonstrated that he is not afraid to trade picks to division rival and good friend Howie Roseman, even knowing that the player selections could come back to bite him, twice or three times a year.
The Eagles offer provides Washington a surplus of 21 points according to the Rich Hill trade value chart, which is equivalent to adding a fourth round pick, while only requiring Washington to trade back three places in the first round. The Eagles traded up to pick Edge Nick Scourton, Texas A&M.
The DraftBot was comfortable accepting the trade offer because it had several players ranked closely on its board, including Edges Donovan Ezeiruaku and James Pearce Jr, OT Josh Conerly, OL Donovan Jackson, RB TreVeyon Henderson and S Xavier Watts, CB Azareye’h Thomas, RB TreVeyon Henderson, and Scourton, as well as the player it selected at 32.
Round 1, Pick 32
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss
6-1, 195 lbs, 4.43 sec 40, RAS 8.85
2024 Stats: 3 INT | 10 PBU | 51.6% rec | 280 yds | 2 TD | 54.5 Rat | 0.544 Y/Cov snp
Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day
Amos is type of long, physical press-man coverage corner that we associate with Dan Quinn’s defenses. Joe Whitt Jr. has emphasized the need for his defense to generate more turnovers, and Amos will help him get there. Amos disrupts receivers’ release at the line and uses length and physicality to win battles when the ball is in the air. He has been stingy in coverage throughout his college career and stepped up his ball production in 2024, recording 3 interceptions and 10 pass breakups.
Amos was the highest rated player on the DraftBot’s board after the Bills and Chiefs took edge rushers James Pearce Jr and Donovan Ezeiruaku at 30 and 31.
Round 2, Pick 61
Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images
Trade: 61 to 49ers, Commanders Receive 75, 100
Not content with adding one more Day 2 pick, the DraftBot picks up a second in a trade with Adam Peters’ former club, to give the Commanders four picks in the top 100, after starting the draft with just two. The two added picks are in the later part of Round 3, but the DraftBot is happy to add picks in the deep middle rounds of this draft.
Round 3, Pick 75
Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images
Ashton Gillotte, DE, Louisville
6-3, 264 | 31.9” arms | 4.65 sec 40 | 1.59 sec 10-yd | 6.94 sec 3-cone | RAS 9.74
2024 Stats: 4.5 sacks | 57 press | 23 tkl | 20 asst | 10 TFL | 0 FF
Advanced Stats: Pressure Rate 15.7%, Run Stop Rate 6.9%
Commanders Meeting: Top 30 visit
Gillotte was a highly productive edge rusher for Louisville, who led the ACC with 11 sacks in 2023 and chipped in 3 forced fumbles. He lacks desired length for an edge rusher, but has elite speed and very good explosiveness and agility. Gillotte wins with violent hands and power rushing off the edge, and quickness off the snap rushing from the interior. He is an effective edge setter and arrives with violence at the point of attack. Gillotte can be moved around the defensive from to generate varied pressure looks, and has a path to earn early starting reps in the Commanders’ DE lineup.
Round 3, Pick 96
Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images
Demetrius Knight Jr., LB, Rex Enright Team Captain, South Carolina
6-2, 235 | 33” arms | 4.58 sec 40 | 1.58 sec 10-yd | RAS 8.17
2024 Stats: 57 tkl | 25 asst | 8 TFL | 3 FF | 2 sk | 1 INT | 1 PD
Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Team Pro Day
In a very thin linebacker class, the DraftBot was pleased to see one of the very few highly rated middle linebackers drop to its pick late in the third round. Knight made an impact all over the field with the Gamecocks in 2024. He plays with intensity and strong instincts to diagnose plays and slip past blockers. He has good awareness in zone coverage but should be schemed away from man coverage responsibilities.
With six years of college experience, Knight will be ready to start early in his career with the Commanders, and provides a succession plan for Bobby Wagner who turns 35 this season and is playing on a one year contract.
Round 3, Pick 100
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Terrance Ferguson, TE, Oregon
6-5, 247 | 4.63 sec 40 | 1.55 sec 10-yd | RAS 9.32
2024 Stats: 65 Tgt | 43 rec (66.2%) | 591 yds | 3 TD | ADOT 7.8 yds | 2.02 Y/RR | 9.0 YAC/Rec | 8.5% drops
Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Team Pro Day
The Commanders need to keep building Jayden Daniels’ arsenal of weapons. Ferguson was a highly productive receiving TE for the Ducks, who profiles as a developmental flex tight end with potential to bolster Kliff Kingsbury’s vertical passing offense. Ferguson is a big bodied receiving target with athleticism and ball skills to become a seam threat.
Like most receiving TEs coming out of college, his blocking skills are underdeveloped and will require coaching before he is ready to compete for starting reps. He has the physical tools to succeed and will just need to put in the effort. With Zach Ertz returning for another year, he will have plenty of time to develop that aspect of his game.
Round 4, Pick 128
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images
Anthony Belton, OT, NC State
6-6, 336 lbs | 34” arms | 1.82 10-yd split | RAS 7.72
2024 Stats: 12 GS | 741 Off Snp | 12 pressures | 3 sacks | 1 QB hit
PFF Blocking Grades: Run 69.4, Pass 87.3
Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Team Pro Day, Top 30 Visit
Belton is a massive right tackle with power to pave the way for runners and length to shove rushers around the pocket. He is generally regarded as the most powerful run blocker in the draft class, and has potential to upgrade the rushing attack outside the QB position, which was inconsistent throughout the 2024 season. He has technique issues with hand and foot placement to clean up. If Bobby Johnson can fix those issues, he has upside to become a quality starter in time.
The DraftBot considered taking Belton instead of Ferguson at 100, and was astounded to find him still available at 128. Belton has a mid-third round rating on its board.
Round 6, Pick 205
Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images
Vernon Broughton, DT, Texas
6-5, 311 lbs | 35” arms
2024 Stats: 4 sacks | 32 press | 24 tkl | 15 asst | 26 stops | 5 TFL | Miss% 16.7 | 2 FF | 2 PBU
Advanced Stats: Pressure Rate: 9.2% | Run Stop Rate 7.6%
Commanders Meetings: Team Pro Day
The Commanders’ biggest weakness in 2024 was run defense. Despite fielding two All-Pro linebackers, Joe Whitt’s defense struggled to contain running backs because it lacked the beef up front. The DraftBot has been on the lookout for
Broughton has the length and first step quickness to excite defensive coordinators, but languished behind NFL-level starters at Texas and only got his first start in 2024. As a result, he is still a developmental prospect.
When given opportunities, Broughton flashed as an instinctive pass rusher, with a variety of moves. Against the run, he has reach and power to stack blocks, but needs to get better at getting off blocks to make plays on the ball. Even so, his Run Stop Rate ranked in the top 20% of the DL draft class. With further development and experience, and some work in the weight room, Broughton has upside to strengthen the DL rotation in both phases.
Broughton was even a better steal than Belton. The DraftBot’s scouting department had him ranked in the middle of the fourth round.
Round 7, Pick 245
Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images
Trevor Etienne, RB, Georgia
5-9, 198 lbs | 4.42 sec 40 | 1.51 sec 10 yd split | 35” vertical | 10’4” broad | RAS 7.39
2024 Rushing: 122 att | 603 yds | 4.9 Y/A | 9 TD | 2 fum | 3.43 YAC/att | 28 forced missed tackles
2024 Receiving: 33 tgt | 32 rec (96.9%) | 194 yd | 8.0 YAC/rec | 1 drop | 1 fum
Commanders Meetings: Senior Bowl, Team Pro Day, Virtual Meeting
Despite this being a very deep RB class, the DraftBot did not find an RB at the top of its board until the final frame.
The diminutive younger brother of Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne provides a quality change of pace back for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense to take over when Austin Ekeler decides to hang up his cleats.
Trevor is an elusive back, who wins with exceptional vision and wiggle. He is an effective inside runner who evades tacklers, but lacks the power to gain the hard yards. As a receiver, he catches everything thrown his way and is a master at gaining yards after the catch. Despite his size, he is also very capable of picking up blitzes and twists in pass protection.
Etienne was suspended for the 2024 season opener due to a DUI arrest. The DraftBot assumed that Peters’ scout team did their due diligence in three meetings with him and that his character checks out.
Etienne concludes the DraftBot’s run of players picked well after their draft board ranks. The BrisVegas scouting department had him ranked in the mid- to late-fifth round range.
After the draft is over, the DraftBot has Arizona’s Jacory Croskey-Merritt on speed dial to provide a potential upgrade in the lead back role as a UDFA signing.