If there is a silver lining with the current struggles of the Washington Commanders, it’s that they continue to move up in the 2024 NFL draft order.
After Sunday’s 45-15 loss to the Miami Dolphins, Washington moved up to the No. 4 spot ahead of the Chicago Bears. The Commanders have played one more game than Chicago.
Currently, the Bears [from the Panthers] hold the No. 1 overall pick, with the Patriots at No. 2, the Cardinals at No. 3, Washington at No. 4 and Chicago’s own selection at No. 5.
The Commanders have four games remaining, and it’s difficult to see where Washington will find a win. The Commanders’ best chance for a win is on Christmas Eve against the Jets, but New York’s defense is outstanding, and Washington’s recent offensive struggles don’t bode well against a top defensive team.
Of course, it’s important to point out that losing late in the season guarantees nothing. Remember the 2019 season when everyone wanted Washington to lose so it could land Chase Young? How’d that work out?
If the Commanders could land a top-four pick, they will have options. Washington could opt to select a quarterback or build around Sam Howell by taking one of the elite left tackle prospects.
The Commanders’ chances of landing the top overall pick do not look so good.
Chance to earn No. 1 or No. 2 pick, through late afternoon window. Per ESPN Analytics.
Bears via Panthers 93%
Patriots 60%
Cardinals 22%
Giants 9%
Commanders 8%
Bears 3%
Jets 3%
Titans 1%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 4, 2023
The Panthers and Patriots would need to get hot over the final month of the season for Washington to move up higher, and that doesn’t seem likely.
A lot can happen over the final five weeks of the season, but don’t count on the Commanders suddenly getting hot. Three of their four remaining games are against teams in the playoff hunt, including against two of the NFC’s top three teams.