Exploiting the Bengals bad luck with injuries
An unexpected start to the season for the Bengals
The Bengals spent the offseason as a favorite pick to reach the AFC Championship game this year, but things have not gone to schedule to begin the season. Cincinnati is 0-2 — one of 5 winless AFC teams — and in last place in the AFC North division.
The Bengals’ biggest weakness in the first two weeks has been their inability to stop the run, and now they enter Week 3 with both starting defensive tackles dealing with hamstring injuries.
Join our partner FanDuel for all your betting needs
The Washington Commanders offensive attack features Brian Robinson Jr., who is a powerful downhill runner. He’s averaging six yards per carry, and he carries the ball right up the middle about 44 percent of the time. There seems to be an opportunity for Washington to lean on Robinson and exploit the situation that the Bengals face in the middle of their defensive line.
Let’s take a look at the Bengals’ run defense through two games
vs. New England
In Week 1, the Patriots rushed for 170 yards at 4.4 yards per carry. New England’s rushing attack was led by 5th-year running back, Rhamondre Stevenson, who carried the ball 25 times for 120 yards (4.8 ypc) and a touchdown. His longest run of the game was 17 yards, so this was a matter of just handing the ball to Stevenson repeatedly. The Pats had only 24 passing attempts and managed just 120 passing yards.
The Patriots have a pretty good rushing attack. Through the first two games of the season, they averaged 177.5 rushing yards per game — tied with Arizona for the 4th-most in the NFL. The Commanders are next on the list at 176.5 ypg.
vs. Kansas City
In Week 2, the Chiefs rushed for 149 yards at 4.7 yards per carry. Isaiah Pacheco carried the ball 19 times for 90 yards while undrafted rookie fullback Carson Steele added another 24 yards on 7 carries.
You can get a sense for the Bengals’ vulnerability to the run by looking at the rushing plays KC ran on their opening offensive drive when the Bengals defense was fresh and healthy:
- Pacheco right end for 1 yard
- Pacheco right guard for 11 yards
- Steel up the middle for 9 yards
- Pacheco right guard for 6 yards
- Pacheco left guard for 8 yards
- Pacheco left guard for 3 yards
- Steele up the middle for 1 yard (on 4th & 1 to convert the 1st down)
The Bengals did stonewall Pacheco on the following 1st & 2nd down plays to force a field goal, but the Chiefs got 38 yards on 6 carries between the tackles to help get the ball to the Cincinnati 2-yard line.
Even with this strong performance against Cincy, the Chiefs don’t have a highly-ranked rushing attack through the first two weeks. After 2 games, the Chiefs ranked 19th in rushing at 110.5 yards per game.
Keeping Joe Burrow off the field
One effect of all this running is that the Bengals have only had 18 offensive drives in two games, and one of those was a simple kneel-down to end the first half. By giving Joe Burrow the ball only 8 or 9 times per game (as opposed to 10 or 12 drives, which is more normal for NFL teams), the opposing team limits the scoring opportunities for Cincinnati’s offense.
Cincinnati, as a result, is 21st in the league in points per game (17.5) and 22nd in average time of possession (28:43) despite having played two opponents that each average well under 30 minutes per game in ToP.
The Bengals defensive stats
Defensively, the Bengals rank 26th in the league in rushing, having given up 159.5 yards per game.
They actually aren’t bad when you look at yards per attempt — Cincinnati ranks 16th at 4.5 yards per carry surrendered — but their two opponents have run the ball, on average, on 57.7% of their offensive plays, indicating that both teams (including the one with Patrick Mahomes at QB) believed that the best way to beat the Bengals was to run the ball. The Chiefs, by the way, rushed the ball 32 times (28 if you remove the 4 runs by Mahomes) while attempting 25 passes.
In addition, Cincinnati ranks 31st out of 32 defenses in Opponent Rushing First Down Percentage at 55.6%
All this is to say that the Bengals defense — even at full strength — has not proven that it can stop opposing running backs.
The Bengals defense is not at full strength
Cincinnati’s two starting defensive tackles, BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins, were injured last week; both Hill and Rankins suffered hamstring injuries against the Chiefs, with Hill leaving the game in the 2nd quarter and Rankins in the 3rd. Rankins has already been declared “out” for tonight’s game wile Hill is questionable.
The absence of these two players leaves the Bengals defense — already weak against the run — even more vulnerable.
Brian Robinson is on a roll
Meanwhile, Washington’s lead running back — 3rd year former Alabama ball carrier Brian Robinson — is coming off the best rushing performance of his pro career. Last week, he gashed the NY Giants — whose defensive line features Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux — for 133 yards on 17 carries (7.8 yards per carry).
In that game, Austin Ekeler, the teams’ #2 back, added 38 yards on 8 carries (4.8 ypc).
Against a depleted Bengals defensive line, Robinson should have the chance to thrive. The Commanders should begin tonight’s game with a steady diet of Brian Robinson between the tackles. That run-heavy play-calling should continue until the Bengals have no choice but to bring their linebackers and safeties up in run support. At that point, Jayden Daniels can get to work throwing the ball over stacked boxes and Austin Ekeler can add some explosive plays in the passing game.
Assuming the Commanders can take a lead or stay within one score of the Bengals in a game with a limited number of offensive drives, Kliff Kingsbury should close out the game and chew up the clock in the 4th quarter by running the ball up the middle against a depleted and fatigued defensive front.
Beginning and ending with Brian Robinson seems to offer a formula for success against the wounded defense that Washington will face on Monday Night Football.
Robinson doesn’t have a history of big rushing games
It’s true that Robinson doesn’t have a history of putting up big statistical performances or carrying the team to ground & pound victories; however, in his first two seasons in Washington, Robinson faced significant obstacles as a rusher.
As a rookie, of course, Brian Robinson was shot twice in his lower body when he was the victim of an attempted car-jacking. He confirmed last year that he was never 100% in his rookie season, though he was on the field from Week 5 to Week 17.
Last year, the rushing game was an afterthought for offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, as the Commanders led the league in pass attempts. The Bieniemy offense was singularly unsuccessful (Washington averaged just 19.4 points per game and had a season record of 4-13), so there were no ‘garbage time’ runs available for the Commanders running backs. Robinson compiled just 733 rushing yards for the ‘23 season.
This season appears to be different. Washington, through two weeks, ranks 6th in rushing attempts per game, 5th in rushing yards per game, 2nd in rushing 1st-downs per game, and 8th in rushing play percentage. The combination of Robinson as the pounding runner and Ekeler as the explosive threat is working so far.
Against the Bengals tonight, the Commanders have the opportunity to leverage this strength against a Cincinnati weakness, and hopefully, come away with an upset victory in prime time.
Tonight features a Monday night doubleheader; the Commanders-Bengals play in the late game, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15pm. The Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs, but with an upset win, can insure that they stay atop the NFC East for another week.