What do we think of the team entering into the bye?
The Washington Commanders are 8-5 as they head into their week 14 bye. After a very ugly week 1 loss to the Bucs, the Commanders seemed to improve with every game, first the offense getting in sync to score 38 points against the Bengals in week 3, then the defense getting in sync to hold the Cardinals to 14 points in a blowout win week 4.
Despite a close loss to the Ravens in week 6 and a lingering rib injury to Jayden Daniels in week 7, the Commanders were 7-2 and leading the NFC East when they hit a 3-game losing skid, culminating in a 26-34 loss to the Cowboys where the offense and defense both seemed to regress against what should have been an inferior opponent with a losing record. Although the Commanders rebounded the following week in a blowout win against the Titans, this season still leaves a lot of questions to be answered about the team and where they are headed.
To answer some of those questions, I turned to some of our Hogs Haven staff writers for a special bye-week retrospective edition of the Five Questions series.
1) What do you think were the biggest reasons for the Commanders’ recent three-game losing skid?
Bobby_Gould: I’d say the primary reasons for the first part of the skid were: 1) That the Steelers and Eagles are very good teams, and though we’d played them close, they didn’t leave us much margin for error. 2) I believe Jayden Daniels’ ribs were still causing him issues in those games. His passes didn’t have the same accuracy or velocity, and his rushing game was significantly pared back. I don’t really have an explanation for the Dallas loss, other than that the special teams performance was terrible (I think Seibert rushed himself back), and Washington didn’t really seem to have an answer for the Cowboys’ defensive game plan.
Bill-in-Bangkok: I’ve got no unique viewpoint or special insight to offer here. I will point to all the same factors everyone else will, though maybe my priority and emphasis will be different from others.
The Steelers game wasn’t just ‘winnable’, it should have been a Washington victory, but the players made too many execution errors (dropped passes, penalties, etc). To me, it seems to have been that simple.
Against the Eagles, it’s easy to forget that Washington had the lead in the game from the Commanders opening drive until the start of the 4th quarter. While a lot of people think we were out-talented by the Eagles, I don’t really agree. I think the biggest factors in that game were fatigue and the continuing effects of Jayden Daniels’ injury. Both teams were operating on short weeks, but Philly was at home and getting healthier, while Washington was feeling the effects of compounding injuries and a late (Week 14) bye. In the 4th quarter, the Eagles took over the game against a worn out Commanders team. I look forward to the Week 16 rematch when the situation will be somewhat reversed.
The Dallas loss, I think, was inexcusable, but falls more on the shoulders of the coaches than the players. I think Dallas had a defensive game plan that the Washington coaching staff wasn’t prepared for and were too slow to react to. Obviously, if Seibert kicks better, it’s a different game, but to be honest, with the number of injuries that Dallas was dealing with, a few missed kicks shouldn’t have made a difference to the outcome any more than they did against the Titans this week. Washington should have given the Cowboys the same treatment they gave to Cleveland, Carolina and Tennessee, but they weren’t properly prepared for the game and got beaten by a wounded and under-manned Dallas team.
MattInBrisVegas: I think it was a combination of factors.
The first two losses were against very good teams which schemed effectively to take away the Commanders’ magic on offense, in different ways, and attack their weaknesses on defense. Those two games coincided with mounting wear and tear, including Jayden Daniels’ rib injury. Perhaps because of those two factors, at least in part, Kingsbury’s gameplanning seemed to get a little stale.
The Cowboys’ game was more than a little fluky. Perhaps the previous two had some impact on team psychology. But there were at least half a dozen plays that could have reversed the outcome, and a few of those were freak occurrences. Whatever rut Jayden Daniels and the offense may have been in through the first three quarters and the previous two games, they seemed to pop out of it in the fourth quarter.
Finally, “the skid” might have been a little overblown. The first two losses were close games, decided by a total of 9 points, against two of the best teams in the league. The only real shocker was the Cowboys game.
2) The bye week is a time to review film and make adjustments. What adjustments do you think the Commanders need to make over this bye?
Bobby_Gould: I actually don’t have a ton of qualms with the job the coaching staff is doing. I think, in general, they’ve done very well with the talent they have on the roster. I hope Kingsbury continues to open the playbook for Daniels and integrates Dyami Brown into the offense in creative ways. One thing I’d like to see Dan Quinn do is go back to his early season aggression on 4th down. My sense is he backed off it some during the skid, and ended up going a bit more conservative. Particularly given our kicking situation, I’d rather not see us kicking anything beyond 45 yards unless it’s a game end or half time situation. That should be four down territory.
Bill-in-Bangkok:
1. Integrate Marshon Lattimore into the defense and ratchet up the pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
2. Use the addition of Lattimore to enhance the run defense, which needs to improve quite a lot. I’m thinking here, for example, of using more single high safety rolled to Sainristil’s side of the field and using the 2nd safety in the box more.
3. Whatever it takes, resolve the kicker issue(s)
4.The OL seemed to have had its best game of the season against the Titans. It might be time to think about starting Lucas at right tackle over Wylie (but maybe not).
MattInBrisVegas: Not so much an adjustment, but study what worked against the Titans and run with it (pun intended). The Commanders’ success this season rises and falls with the running game. Commit to it and collect the wins. Chris Rodriguez has demonstrated what he can do. It would be nice to see him get more carries early in games.
It would also be nice if they could find a lockdown corner somewhere to shore up the leaky pass defense.
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3) When Jayden Daniels was on his hot streak, two comparisons were often made: RG3 and CJ Stroud. It’s still very early for Stroud, but both of those QBs had trouble maintaining the same success after their rookie year. What do you think of Jayden Daniels and what are you looking at to see if his success will translate to next year or if he could regress?
Bobby_Gould: RG3 has never really struck me as a good comp for Daniels, and Daniels is already a far more prolific rusher than Stroud has been in the NFL – this season alone, he has over 200 more rushing yards than Stroud has in his career. Daniels is also a more accurate passer than Stroud so far. I’m looking for Daniels to continue to find his early form over the course of the next four weeks and the playoffs, and continue to expand the scope of his game. Several of the better defenses have already tried to make him one dimensional, and it’s going to be up to Jayden and Kingsbury to continue to evolve the offense in a way that takes advantage of the young QB’s many strengths.
Bill-in-Bangkok: No one believes in Jayden Daniels more than I do. I was sold on him during the pre-draft process, which I spent learning about the top QBs, and I was thrilled when Washington selected him.
I said after the Bengals game that JD5 had already achieved the level of performance I had hoped he could achieve by Weeks 15-18. He’s still getting better. He’s going to be a monster for years to come.
I think Daniels is the unicorn; he will be, for Washington, what Patrick Mahomes has been for Kansas City. I realize the young man has played less than 13 complete NFL games, but I’m completely sold that he’s the genuine article and is the guy who may finally turn Sammy Baugh into Washington’s second-best QB ever. He’s mature, hard-working, and even-tempered. On the field, he’s capable of extremely rapid high-level decision making, pinpoint accuracy in passing, and he adds a dangerous dimension as a runner.
I think that Jayden will be favorably compared to the best quarterbacks in the league in 2025 and that 15 years from now, young players will speak about him with the same awe that we heard Commanders players using when they realized in OTAs, minicamp and training camp that they were truly sharing the field with future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer Bobby Wagner.
MattInBrisVegas: Sophomore slumps are all about psychology. Jayden Daniels has the best mental makeup and approach to the game of any QB we have seen in Washington since, I don’t know, maybe Sonny Jurgensen? I don’t know much about C.J. Stroud, but JD5 and RG3 might as well be from different universes. I am not worried about JD slumping next season. It would help with his development if the front office could provide him with a few more playmakers on offense and upgrade the talent on the OL.
4) What do you think of the Commanders rookie class outside of Jayden Daniels so far?
Bobby_Gould: I absolutely love it. Mike Sanristil is one of the best rookie corners in the league, and looks like he’ll be a team leader for a long time. Brandon Coleman is having some growing pains, but looks like he’ll end up a starting tackle on this team for the foreseeable future. The drafting of Johnny Newton ended up being well-timed with Jon Allen’s unfortunate injury, and he continues to develop. Ben Sinnott, Luke McCaffrey, and Javontae John-Baptiste continue to develop quietly in the background, and I expect them to be much more impactful next season. If Jordan Magee and Dominique Hampton develop into role players in the next year or two, the 2024 draft will be an absolute grand slam.
Bill-in-Bangkok: I’m probably less impressed with the overall rookie class than the typical commenter on Hogs Haven, though that doesn’t mean I’m unhappy with it.
The star of the group, unsurprisingly, seems to be Mikey Sainristil, who has the personal traits that mirror those of Jayden Daniels, and who has performed at a very high level when asked to step up and do ‘hard shit’ due to the circumstances of a weak CB room. He looks like a future Pro Bowler in the making.
- I’m satisfied with the progress of Brandon Coleman, but he will need continued development in coming seasons.
- Sinnott seems to have excelled as a blocker; I am okay if he isn’t fully integrated into the passing scheme until next year.
- McCaffrey seems to be ready, willing and able. I get the feeling that his targets, receptions and yards will come with time (not necessarily this season).
- Johnny Newton has flashed at times, but I don’t think he’s “as advertised” yet. Among the players drafted in the first 4 rounds, he seems to have the greatest chance of not meeting expectations in the medium- to long-term.
- Of the late-round picks (Magee, Hampton, Jean-Baptiste), only Javontae Jean-Baptiste has had the chance to impress on the field. I think he’s off to a good start, particularly for a 7th round pick. I’m assuming that Magee’s inability to get on the field is a function of playing behind Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. It may be a long time before fans get to see what he brings to the field. It’s hard to know what to think of Hampton; for the moment, I’m assuming that, like Magee, he’ll be ready when needed.
MattInBrisVegas: Let me start by saying relatively few players come out of the gate playing like All-Pros, even some of those who go on to become All-Pros. It is still way too early to evaluate most rookies. If they aren’t showing promise by the end of next season, you can start to worry.
Having said that, CB Mike Sainristil already looks like a homerun. My Week 12 CBs roundup showed that he is already playing at the level of an average starting CB2 at containing receivers in coverage, which is all the more impressive when you consider that he is playing out of position at boundary CB.
Brandon Coleman has been up and down, which is typical of rookie OTs, even those drafted much earlier than he was. In a few games, he has shut down opposing pass rushers, and he is pretty mobile in run blocking. I don’t think we know yet if he’ll stick at LT, or move to RT or LG. But I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t stick as a starter. Regardless of where he ends up, he is looking like a great value in the third round.
Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott have got playing time, and looked good on the field. It is frustrating as a fan that they don’t get more targets. Luke in particular, since he gets a lot of separation and catches everything.
Javonate Jean-Baptiste has got way more playing time on defense than expected, based on his draft status. The other Day 3 picks are living up to their low expectations. UDFA Tyler Owens has been a mainstay on special teams, and I am looking forward to seeing him get opportunities on defense.
The guy I should probably be worried about is 36th overall pick Johnny Newton. But his first offseason was impacted by injury, and the DL as unit hasn’t gelled yet under new management. I’m not ready to hit the panic button just yet. But I’d be hoping to see him take a step up in the second year of the Commanders’ new look defense.
Peter Casey-Imagn Images
5) What has impressed you about the coaching staff and where do you think they need to do better?
Bobby_Gould: As I said earlier, I’ve been very impressed by the coaching staff, even Bobby Johnson, whose initial selection I was “baffled” by. Joe Whitt has got the defense playing well, Kingsbury is being discussed as a potential head coach elsewhere, and – other than the Cowboys game – Izzo’s unit has looked pretty brilliant. Even with four games left, this team has crushed its pre-season win predictions, and I think much of that overperformance can be attributed to the coaching staff’s hard work.
Bill-in-Bangkok: I was much higher on Dan Quinn than the typical Commanders fan when he was hired, and it was because I spent a lot of time listening to John Keim podcasts during the coaching search. Keim was saying at every opportunity that the popular narrative was wrong — that Ben Johnson was not necessarily the top choice, and that the name he kept hearing as the best-qualified leader from people around the league was that of Dan Quinn. Personally, I think Johnson ‘withdrew’ his name from consideration as a face-saving measure because he became aware that, although he was getting an interview, it was really a two-horse race between Mike Macdonald and Dan Quinn.
No matter how positively I received the news that Quinn was the new coach, I wasn’t close to prepared for how impressed I ended up being with him from the day of his introductory press conference until this past Monday. I think that Quinn is exactly the right guy for the 2024 season, and I hope that he’s able to continue to be the right guy as rosters and circumstances change going forward.
It probably shouldn’t surprise me that DQ seems to have many of the attributes of Pete Carroll given that Quinn worked for him in Seattle. The pairing of the positive and upbeat, but honest and clear-speaking Quinn with the steady, unflappable, poised and uber-hard-working Daniels seems to be perfect. I love what seems to be the new version of “Commanders football”.
Quinn had the chops to put together a coaching staff with deep experience and strong resumes, but comprised of coaches from different backgrounds and drawn from many teams. This is unusual in coaching circles, where the norm is to bring along friends and family that have worked together for years. I think that it is DQ’s personal style that has enabled that unique blending of egos and talent in a way that mirrors the mish-mash of veteran free agents from many different teams combined with young drafted players that has been molded into a highly effective team. In that way, the coaching staff and player roster are similar; each appears to be a ‘Frankenstein monster’ of parts stitched together and given life by DQ’s unique approach — one that has been born of the successes, failures, and self-reflection that have comprised his NFL coaching career.
What do I think they need to do better? I think they’ve had only one misstep in the 2024 calendar year, and that was the failed preparation for the Dallas game. Outside of that game, I can’t think of a single thing I’d change about this coaching staff for 2024 and whatever remains of this season/post-season.
MattInBrisVegas: I was not excited about the DQ hire at the time. I consulted my family in Atlanta when he was hired and got back, “My condolences.” What a revelation the “retread” HC has been! Quinn is clearly a man who learns from his experiences and has matured into his role as a leader. Pretty much all of the faults that irritated me in his predecessor have been corrected and improved upon. There have been few instances where the team was not prepared for games. After the first few games the team has played in sync, without the mistakes and miscommunication that we had become accustomed to. And most importantly, accountability and leadership are back. My only real quibbles are the use of “dawg ass” as a general purpose adjective and the backwards cap. I can learn to live with both if the team stays on its current trajectory.
The next big surprise has been OC Kliff Kingsbury. I might have been less surprised than many about the extent to which his offense revolves around the running game. But I can’t say I was expecting much when he was hired. I have been pleasantly surprised by the creativity he has applied to getting the most out of a less than stellar roster to put together a top-5 offense in his first season, and supporting development of a rookie star QB. Also, I don’t think anyone would have expected that the Commanders would rank 4th in rushing attempts.
I love listening to Joe Whitt pressers. The leadership is there. I will suspend judgement of his unit’s performance on the field until he is provided with the talent to fully implement his defensive schemes.
The unsung hero of the coaching staff this season is OL coach, Bobby Johnson. After seemingly unsuccessful stints with the Giants and Bills, his hire seemed like a real head scratcher. Making do with mostly mediocre talent, he has transformed the Commanders’ OL into an effective blocking unit, exceeding expectations of most fans. Run Game Coordinator Anthony Lynn also deserves a ton of credit for a rushing attack that ranks 3rd in rushing yards, 2nd in rushing TDs and 5th in Y/A.
I’m not the right person to ask what the coaching staff could do better. My only suggestions are throw it to Luke and play Ben Sinnott more at FB.
Thanks again to Bobby_Gould, Bill-in-Bangkok, and MattInBrisVegas for answering my out-of-the-blue email with questions about the team for an article I didn’t really discuss with them beforehand. I probably should have sent them an email heads up and questions earlier, but they gave great answers regardless.
How would you Hogs Haven readers answer these questions? Are there other pressing questions facing the team? Let us know in the comments!