A roundup of building blocks, bridge players and major needs at the 3/4 mark of Year 1
In the part 1 of the bye-week round-up, I had a look at players on the Commanders’ offensive roster who figured to be part of the rebuild to championship contention, and those that the team might move on from in the offseason. The second part concludes with a look at defense and special teams.
Commanders’ players were rated against other players at their positions around the league, with just one or two key stats shown in the summary tables. I also took into account players’ age and contract status to sort them into the following categories, reflecting how they might fit into the overall scheme of Adam Peters’ roster makeover:
Building Blocks – young players showing promise to be key pieces of the rise to championship contention and beyond
Key Pieces – stars of today who will help get the team to its first championship run, but might not be part of the long term plan
Bridge Players – players who are good enough to keep for one or two more seasons, until Peters can find younger, better replacements. This year’s bridge players might be next year’s replacement level.
Replacement Level – a broad category including any player who is occupying a roster space that should be filled by a better, younger, or cheaper player. This can include sub-par starters, solid players nearing the end of their productive careers, and even very good players who aren’t producing enough to justify their massive contracts. The team might decide to bring back a Replacement Level player for another year, if no better option is available. The point is, they are going year to year, and competing with the rest of the market at their positions.
Fans might take exception to seeing some of their favorite players falling into this category, but I am trying to get into the mindset of a GM building for long-term success, rather than a fan or old football coach looking to reward their guys for all their hard work. It is a stark perspective.
Promising Depth – young players with upside.
Too Early to Tell – first and second year players who haven’t got enough playing time to evaluate
Tables show age next season. 2024 Games Started (GS) and snap counts are shown in the table, with annotations when players missed significant time on IR. Player ranks according to key productivity stats for their positions are shown in the table. Where a player did not meet the playing time requirement for ranking, their equivalent position rank is shown in parentheses. The tables show the year a player hits free agency, with annotations to indicate a fifth-year option (+) or void years in their contract(v).
Photo by Timothy Nwachukwu/Getty Images
DEFENSE
Dorance Armstrong Jr. – Bridge Player: Dorance had quietly become a solid edge rusher playing behind established starters in Dallas. In his first staring opportunity this year, he has continued to play at a solid, if unspectacular level, recording 3 sacks, 3 TFL and 1 forced fumble through 12 games. While he hasn’t got the QB much, he has generated the 24th highest pressure rate among 66 “starting” DEs (min 398 defensive snaps). He has also generated 12 run stops, and ranks 19th in run stop rate among the top 64 DEs (min 145 run defense snaps). He is good enough to hold the fort for another season or two until the Commanders can replace him with an impact edge rusher.
Dante Fowler Jr – Bridge Player: Fowler has already achieved his second-highest season sack total with 4 games to go, and is 4 sacks ahead of Montez Sweat and 5 ahead of Chase Young. He has been disruptive in the backfield, ranking 10th in pressure rate among edge rushers (min 400 def snaps), and recording 8.5 sacks, 11 TFL (9th in NFL), 1 FF, as well as a pick-6. He is more pass rush specialist than all around DE, but holds his own in run defense, ranking 26th in run stop rate among 69 edge defenders (min 140 run def snaps). I could be convinced to go Key Piece, but at 31 YO it would be risky to sign him to a long-term extension. Hopefully he won’t be too expensive to get back for a few more years. The Commanders need a succession plan to replace Fowler’s productivity on defense.
Clelin Ferrell – Replacement Level: Ferrell was brought in on a 1-year, $3.5m contract, and has done nothing to justify an extension. On the season he has 20 combined tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 TFL. His pressure rate on pass rushes is at the level of low-end starters. The Commanders have a pressing need to generate more pressure from the passer’s left side, where Ferrell mainly lines up.
Javontae Jean-Baptiste – Promising Depth: Jean-Baptiste has played in 8 games, and is one of only 4 rookie edge defenders drafted after the 4th round to record a sack. That puts him well ahead of the curve for a 7th round draft pick. If he becomes a solid rotational player, he will have exceeded expectations of his draft status.
End of Roster: Jalyn Holmes has made 2 TFL. Efe Obada has been a non-factor this season. Andre Jones has been elevated from the practice squad for 2 games, but barely got playing time. It is hard to know what the Commanders have in Viliami Fehoko.
Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen – Replacement Level/Bridge Players: Let me start by saying that Daron Payne has been one of my favorite Washington players since he was drafted. However, all good things come to an end, and his output has dropped substantially since he was signed to a big extension in 2023. He currently has the 8th largest contract for interior defensive linemen, but ranks in the 20’s in defensive production. The bad news for the Commanders is that his $26m cap hit in 2026 makes him difficult to trade unless his output spikes through the remaining four games. If that Christmas miracle occurs, then the Commanders might be better off keeping him as a Key Piece for the remainder of his contract.
Jonathan Allen also saw a big drop in production this year before his season-ending pectoral injury. His contract is slightly more modest than Payne’s, but he is still also overpaid relative to his production, and the injury won’t help with his trade value. There is always a chance he could rebound to his previous game-wrecking ways in his second year in Joe Whitt’s system, which would change his outlook, much the same as Payne.
The Commanders might want to move on from these players, but it could be challenging to find takers. They might have to serve as Bridge Players for the remainder of their massive contracts. In which case, Joe Whitt has the challenge to bring them back to previous form.
Jer’Zhan Newton – Too Early to Tell: Adam Peters raised eyebrows by adding Newton, with the 36th overall pick, to what on paper was the position of greatest strength on defense. That should serve as a reminder of how quickly things change in the NFL. With Allen’s mid-season injury, and both veteran stars underperforming, the BPA pick might have suddenly seemed inspired.
The only problem with that is, at the 3/4 mark of his rookie season, Newton has yet to show why the Commanders considered him to be a first round talent. With 7 starts under his belt, he has 30 combined tackles, 1 sack and 3 TFL. That’s not terrible production for a rookie DT, but it’s also not the instant impact that fans and the coaching staff might have been hoping for. Newton’s first offseason was impacted by foot fracture surgeries, so he might just be getting off to a slower start than expected. There is still plenty of time ahead of him.
Phidarian Mathis – Replacement Level: Big Phil was surprised when the Commanders drafted him in the second round, and has played more like the 4th rounder he expected to be since recovering from the meniscus tear that derailed his rookie season. He occupies space without being a plus run defender. At times he can disrupt the pocket, but not consistently. He provides an adequate rotational option for the final year of his rookie contract, but has done little to justify an extension.
End of Roster: Rookie UDFA Norrell Pollard impressed the Commanders enough to earn a multi-year contract, but missed his rookie season on IR. Sheldon Day has the highest Run Stop Rate on the DL at 8.0%, and ranks 32nd among iDL (min 64 run defense snaps). Haggai Ndubuisi is an International Player Program recruit, who offers little downside to keep on the Practice Squad.
Frankie Luvu – Key Piece: Luvu was one of the Commanders’ three biggest FA acquisitions in Peters’ first offseason, and was arguably the best. Defensive stops (tackles which represent a failure for the offense) are a great overall measure of LB performance, but in Luvu’s case, they don’t tell the whole story. Luvu ranks just 43rd in Stop Rate among the top 64 starting LBs (min 370 defensive snaps). However, he also leads NFL LBs with 8 sacks. Add to that 9 TFL (14th LB), 5 pass breakups (7th LB), a 75.2 Passer Rating in coverage (21st LB, min 300 def snaps) with just 3.5% missed tackle rate (10th best LB), and it paints the profile of a defender who impacts offenses all over the field. At 28 YO next season, Luvu will be a Key Piece to get the Commanders to the promised land over the next two seasons, and could be a part of the picture beyond that.
Bobby Wagner – Replacement Level: Wagner has been an important bridge player during the transition to management. He is likely to be inducted into the Hall of Fame soon after he retires. In the twilight of his career, he still ranks in the top 40 LBs in Stop Rate, and has produced 104 combined tackles, 7 TFL, 2 sacks and 1 forced fumble. But at 35 next season, his best days are behind him and he is not a player to invest in long-term. It might be worth bringing him back for another season, if there is not a good option to go younger at MLB. A better move might be to transition him to the coaching staff, if he is amenable.
Jordan Magee – Promising Depth: Magee was a fifth round draft pick with great athleticism and aggressive on-field demeanor, but is on the light side (228 lbs) for a linebacker. As expected from his athletic profile and draft status, he has spent his rookie season as a core special teamer, playing an average of 67% of special teams snaps after joining the lineup in Week 8. He is tied with Mykal Walker for 7th on the team with 4 ST tackles, but also has 2 missed tackles. Magee is more of a run and hit LB than a run stacker. He should be competing for playing time on defense in the offseason.
Mykal Walker – Replacement Level: Walker is a Replacement Level Defender, earning just 63 defensive snaps in 9 games this season, with minimal impact. His primary contribution has been as a core special teamer, logging 250 ST snaps in 13 games. He is fifth on the team in combined special teams tackles, with 4 solo and 4 assists, combined with just 1 miss and no penalties. It might be worth bringing him back next season as a core special teamer, but he is vulnerable to competition from players with more upside at LB.
Nick Bellore – Replacement Level: Bellore is an ageless wonder, whose primary value is on special teams. At age 36, he is second in the NFL in special teams tackles, with 13 solo and 4 assists, as well as 5 misses (6th in NFL). ST Coordinator Larry Izzo brought him in for his leadership as well as his age-defying special teams ability. He plays minimally on defense and might need to make way for a younger upgrade at LB or FB.
Marshon Lattimore – Key Piece*: Commanders fans are eagerly awaiting Lattimore’s debut performance in Burgundy and Gold this Sunday against the Saints. When healthy, Lattimore is the NFL’s premiere CB, allowing just 0.32 Yards/Coverage Snap against opposing teams’ #1 receivers (second place is Patrick Surtain II at 0.45 Y/Cov Snp). Lattimore has potential to upgrade the Commanders’ pass defense, which currently allows the fifth-highest opponent Passer Rating (100.9) in coverage.
*The caveat is that Lattimore is a risky signing. When healthy, he is a difference maker. But he has missed 23 games from 2022 through 2023, with a string of injuries. At 28 years old, he hasn’t reached the point of physical decline, but if he can’t stay healthy, his signing could be a flop.
Benjamin St-Juste – Replacement Level: Lattimore replaces Benjamin St-Juste, who has allowed the second-highest rate of receiving yardage in coverage (1.37 Y/Cov Snp) among 71 “starting” CBs (min. 500 defensive snaps). The Commanders will be looking to upgrade the CB ranks this offseason, and St-Juste’s chances of earning a second contract are not looking good.
Mike Sainristil – Building Block: In my Week 11 roundup of the Commanders’ CBs, Sainristil ranked 17th among CB2s in lockdown coverage, at 0.95 Y/Cov Snp, and 18th in pass defense (combined PD and INT rate). That was before his horror game against the Titans, which exposed his weakness covering big receivers. The 5’10”, 180 lb Sainristil gave up 2 receptions for 44 yds and 1 TD against 6’2”, 211 lb Nick Westbrook-Ikine and 1 rec for 30 yds against 6’1”, 190 lb Calvin Ridley, en route to a 6 rec, 103 yd, 1 TD outing, by far the worst game of his rookie campaign. That game bumped Sainristil up to 1.07 Y/Cov Snap, which ranks 47th among 71 starting CBs.
It is important to remember that Sainristil was drafted to play nickel corner, and has held up very well at outside CB, covering teams’ #1 and #2 WRs. Despite his size, Sainristil is a tenacious defender and currently ranks 11th among NFL CBs in defensive stops (20). Among the rookie CB class, he has played the third most coverage snaps (430), ranks 1st in tackles (57 solo), and is tied for 2nd in pass breakups (6) and defensive stops. After his impressive rookie debut, expectations are high for Sainristil to thrive at his natural position as a key piece of the defense for years to come.
Noah Igbinoghene – Bridge Player: Igbinoghene’s career got a new breath of life when he followed Dan Quinn to Washington and got an opportunity to start at nickel corner. In my Week 11 CB roundup, he ranked 10th among starting slot CBs in coverage and 13th in pass defense. If anything, his numbers have got slightly better in the next two games. Iggy has been playing well above his $1.15m cap hit, and could be good value to keep around as a 4th CB on the right contract, assuming that Sainristil moves to the slot next season. If Sainristil stays outside, he can man the slot until someone better comes along.
End of Roster: Michael Davis has mainly played on special teams, logging 174 ST snaps (7th on team), but has only made 1 solo tackle to 3 misses. He played horribly in coverage in the Week 2 Giants game. The coaches saw something in practice that has led to him getting more snaps on defense from Week 11 without disastrous consequences. Bobby Price has been hiding out on the PS.
Jeremy Chinn – Key Piece: Chinn has a been very productive, if inconsistent, as a versatile back-end defender for Washington. His defensive snaps have been split between the box (313), free safety (229) and slot coverage (152), with occasional snaps blitzing from the line (56). He is third on the team in defensive stops (22) and 16th in the league at his position in Stop Rate. He has performed well in coverage from the slot, often lining up against TEs, and ranks 28th in coverage among the top 64 safeties (min 519 defensive snaps). He has demonstrated his value on a one-year, $4.1m prove it deal and would be worth extending as a key piece of the secondary, if he hasn’t priced himself out of the Commanders’ range.
Quan Martin – Bridge Player: Quan Martin played predominantly at free safety this season, with 591 snaps lined up deep, compared to just 99 in the box, 52 in the slot and 7 at other positions. He has played well enough at the position to hold the fort until an upgrade is available. But he doesn’t have the run stopping ability of Chinn or the range to play deep cover safety against top WRs.
Percy Butler – Replacement Level: Butler split time nearly evenly between the box (143 snaps) and free safety (121 snaps), with occasional snaps defending the slot (31) and elsewhere (15 snaps). Butler is also a core special teamer. He played the fourth-most special teams snaps (226) and had the third-most ST tackles (7). He is an adequate third safety, but is not particularly good at anything.
Jeremy Reaves – Bridge Player: All-Pro Reavo was second on the team with 10 special teams tackles, 2 assists and 4 misses. He brings value as a locker room leader and special teams ace, but barely saw the field on defense.
Tyler Owens – Promising Depth: Owens profiled as an athletic freak with limited game film coming out of college. The Commanders liked him enough to sign him to a three-year contract as a UDFA. He flashed on defense in preseason, playing predominantly at free safety. He has played in 10 games this season exclusively on special teams, where he has the fifth-most tackles (6 tackles, 1 assist, 2 misses).
Dominque Hampton – Too Early to Tell: Hampton was a physically imposing safety for the Washington Huskies, at 6’3”, 220 lbs. In preseason, the Commanders experimented with playing him at linebacker, and once the season started he disappeared from view. Given his size, athletic profile, and draft position, it is strange that he has not appeared on special teams. Who knows what is going on with this player?
End of Roster: Darrick Forrest was relegated to a playing predominantly on special teams this season, getting playing time in 6 games, with minimal snaps on defense in 3 games. Ben Nikkel is a 6’1”, 210 lb safety who signed as a UDFA out of Iowa State. He has spent the season on the practice squad.
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Austin Seibert – Bridge/Replacement Level?: The Commanders initially struggled to find a kicker, until signing Seibert to replace Cade York in Week 2. Seibert exceeded expectations, hitting over 90% of field goal attempts, and leading the NFL in scoring until he was injured in Week 9 and went on injured reserve in Week 13. If Seibert can get healthy, he could stabilize the kicking position for the near term. But the Commanders will probably bring in competition for the position in the offseason.
K Zane Gonzalez – Replacement Level: The Commanders hired Gonzalez off the street in Week 10 when Seibert was injured. He is 3 for 5 on field goals. After going 0/2 on field goals in the last game against the Titans, he has four games left to reverse a bad impression.
P Tress Way – Bridge Player: Tressler William Way has been Washington’s MVP for much of the past 11 seasons. He is still punting at a high level, with a 46.5 yard average and 18/37 landed inside the opponents’ 20 yd line. He turns 35 next season, and can’t keep going forever. Will the Commanders bring in competition this offseason? Probably not, but it’s got to happen sooner or later.
LS Tyler Ott – Long Snapper: The 9th year player out of Harvard has solidified the long snapping position for the time being as evidenced by the fact that I have yet to hear his name called in a game. Aside from snapping with the best of them, he has two missed tackles on special teams. Ott has earned $6.98 million from NFL teams for snapping the ball around 6 times a game over the past 9 years.
KR Austin Ekeler – Replacement Level: Ekeler has provided great value to the Commanders as a bridge player at all-purpose back and kick returner, where he ranks 5th in average return yards. But age and injuries are catching up to him. The Commanders should look to get younger at both positions.
PR Olamide Zaccheaus – Replacement Level: The Commanders might decide to keep Zaccheaus as a 4th or 5th WR, in which case it makes sense to continue to use him at punt returner. Zaccheaus has 7 returns this season over 15 yards with a long of 24 and a 10.5 yd average. However, he has also fumbled three times, and has not seemed like the same player in the return game since having 2 muffed returns against Pittsburgh. At any rate, the Commanders should be looking to get younger at the offensive skill positions and defensive back this offseason and should keep an eye out for players with potential as punt returners.
KR/PR KJ Osborn: Midweek acquisition WR KJ Osborn was used on punt and kick returns in Minnesota to modest effect. He might be worth a try.
End of Roster: RB Kaz Allen was an explosive kick returner in college and spent the season on the practice squad.
Photo by Timothy Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Summary
To summarize, here is an defensive depth chart made up of players Washington should look to keep, heading into the offseason. Presumptive starters are designated by asterisks. End of roster and replacement-level players might be brought back on team friendly deals, but are not shown here, unless there is an obvious reason to believe they’ll be back next year.
Edge: Dorance Armstrong Jr.*, New Starter?, Dante Fowler, Javontae Jean-Baptiste
DT: Daron Payne*, Jon Allen*, Jer’Zhan Newton, Norell Pollard
LB: Frankie Luvu*, New Starter?, Jordan Magee
CB: Marshon Lattimore*, New Starter?, Mike Sainristil*, Noah Igbinoghene
S: Jeremy Chinn*, New Starter, Tyler Owens, Jeremy Reaves, Dominique Hampton
On special teams, expect a kicker competition featuring Austin Seibert in camp. There is likely to be considerable shuffling at return specialist, but the outcome might be dictated by what the team does at positions on offense and defense.
Major Offseason Needs
If this is anywhere near accurate, then the major needs to be filled in the offseason ahead of the draft would look something like this:
- CB
- DT
- MLB
- Deep cover S
- K
- Return specialist (RB, WR, DB)