Survey results!!
I want to talk about three feelings — confidence, pride and faith — in the context of the past, present and future of the Washington Commanders.
Confidence
Every week, we ask Hogs Haven readers the same question: Are you confident in the direction of the Commanders?
The question is deliberately vague. It doesn’t define what ‘direction’ means. It doesn’t specify whether the question relates to the team’s play, the organizational strategy, both of them, or something else entirely.
So far in 2024, the confidence of Washington fans has been steadily high, with only two relatively shallow dips.
This week, 96% of survey respondents said that they are confident in the direction of the Commanders, which is right where we started in our first (pre-season) confidence poll ahead of the season opener. The confidence figure has dipped below 92% only twice this year — following the opening week loss to the Buccaneers, and after the brutal Week 12 loss to a struggling Cowboys team.
I think that this consistently high level of confidence comes from fans comparing the present to the past. The former owner, who bought the team in 1999 and sold it in 2023, used up his goodwill fairly early in his tenure, as he turned the once-great Washington franchise into a seemingly perennial failure. The final years of his tenure as owner were particularly brutal as newspaper headlines about the team focused increasingly on exposing a “toxic work environment”, sexual harassment, financial shenanigans, and government & league investigations into shady practices. A botched effort at re-branding and a number of badly-executed front-office initiatives simply added to the clear dysfunction in the Ashburn team headquarters.
Many fans who have remained confident even in the midst of a 3-game losing streak and the other vagaries of an NFL season seem to persist in their optimism because the 2024 team leadership, from ownership to coaches, is so different from what we had under the previous owner. For too many years, the feeling was that ‘we couldn’t have nice things’. The team could hire a great coach or draft a great player, but it wouldn’t break the cycle of dysfunction because the guy at the top was the worst owner in sports.
If you look, today, at the approach of owner Josh Harris, the differences from his predecessor are stark. Pay attention to the results of the work done by General Manager Adam Peters, and it’s easy to feel like we struck gold with that hire. Listen to Dan Quinn talk and see how his players respond to his leadership, and it’s not hard to feel optimistic about the head coach and his staff. Read and listen to what respected voices from around the NFL have to say about the owner, GM and coaching staff, and it’s easy to sense the respect that these men garner from their peers and competitors.
In short, the steady confidence of the Washington fan base reflects a growing sense of calm experienced by creating distance from a long-standing abusive relationship, along with understanding, day-by-day, that the worst is behind us, and that better days have already begun.
Pride
It’s one thing to be confident; pride is a related but different feeling, so we asked Hogs Haven readers this week to rate their level of pride in the Washington Commanders on a scale from zero to five, with 5 being the highest level of pride.
As you can see, only 5% of those responding answered with a rating below 3, and 84% rated their level of pride at 4 or 5.
With all the positives we’ve seen from the organization, and the impressive level of on-field success the team has enjoyed in the first year of the Adams-Quinn era of Washington football, what is holding back more than half of all respondents from the highest rating for pride in the Washington Commanders?
The reason that was cited again and again in the comments section of the survey article was the team name — fans continue to have negative feelings, ranging from mild annoyance to intense loathing, about the Commanders name.
So, Josh Harris, if you’re out there reading this, be aware that the name continues to be a stumbling block for a certain and substantial segment of the fan base.
Not everyone, though, lets it impact their pride in the team.
The bottom line here seems to be that fans are certainly proud of the players and their collective on-field performance, and they are no longer cringing at the ineptitude of the owner and front office, leading to stirrings of pride in the broader organization,
BUT…
Hogs Haven readers, as a group, not only continue to react negatively to the 2022 rebranding, but a very large portion of them feel less pride in the team because of the Commanders name and the current stadium.
We know that the owners are actively pursuing a solution to the stadium problem, with a new stadium expected to open (somewhere) in another 6 or 7 years. Until that time, Harris & Co seem to be committed to improving the gameday experience at Northwest Stadium in Landover. It will be interesting to see if Josh Harris ever takes a shot at a re-do on that branding decision once the location of the new stadium is locked in, or whether he’ll lean into the belief that winning on the field cures everything else.
Faith
Faith is about the future. Currently, fan faith is being tested, for example, by the political process surrounding the effort to build a new stadium in Washington, D.C.
The generally strong results from Hogs Haven readers with respect to the confidence and pride questions indicate a certain level of faith about the long-term future of the franchise under the stewardship of the Josh Harris group.
But football fans also live in a more immediate future in which nearly every week of the regular season sees your favorite team playing a game, and a slightly expanded short-term future that includes the regular season record and playoff results.
It’s possible to feel good about the team, yet not feel extremely optimistic about its playoff outlook. That’s what we explored in our final question in this week’s Reacts survey: your expectations about the Commanders and the upcoming playoffs.
The results speak loudly about where fans see the Commanders roster — good enough to enjoy regular season success, but not good enough to enjoy much, if any, playoff success.
In fact, 82% of Hogs Haven readers responding to the survey predict that the Washington Commanders will either lose the first game they play (49%) or get eliminated after only a single win on Super Wildcard Weekend (33%). Only 11% of respondents foresee the Commanders playing in the NFC Conference Championship game or the Super Bowl, and 7% predict that the Commanders won’t make the playoffs at all!
There are certainly factors that point towards this less-than-optimistic view. The roster is not deep, and the team is probably over-reliant on rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels to play at a high enough level to win games. We’ve seen how challenged the team has been from a roster depth standpoint when they have had to play without Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Tyler Biadasz and/or Noah Brown. We also saw the team struggle when Jayden was hampered by a rib injury in the middle of the season.
Adam Peters did a good job piecing together a roster for Year 1 of the rebuild out of the smoldering ruin that Ron Rivera left behind, but a team that is getting nearly zero production out of 5 years’ worth of 1st & 2nd round picks is bound to struggle to compete with the NFL’s better teams, which is what we’ve seen in the regular season to date.
Late in the season now, Washington has lost players like Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler, Noah Brown, Jonathan Allen, and a couple of kickers for one or more games. The lack of depth is likely to be exposed by the rigors of January playoff football.
Of course, there have been some reinforcements as well. CB Marshon Lattimore, acquired from the Saints at the trade deadline on Nov 5th, just got healthy and played his first game in a Commanders uniform this past Sunday (and he seemed to be very effective). His presence is likely to make a difference in the games that remain in the ‘24 regular season and postseason. Also, WR K.J. Osborn was claimed off of waivers last week. While he wasn’t active against the Saints, he could be ready to play as soon as this week against the Eagles. Osborn had three productive seasons (2021-23) with the Vikings, and may prove to be a solid replacement for Noah Brown and a productive receiver to line up opposite Terry McLaurin and in the slot.
Tyler Biadasz, who missed the Saints game with an illness, should be back in the lineup this week and (knock on wood) throughout the playoffs. His presence is a key to good offensive line play. Likewise, Jonathan Allen, who suffered a partial pectoral tear early in the season seems likely to return for the final two regular season games (home vs Falcons and on the road in Dallas). These trench warriors can help win the battles that need to be won in December and January football.
In short
Washington fans feel high levels of confidence and pride in the Commanders team, ownership and organization now as opposed to what was on offer for the first 23 years of this century. Fans also seem to have faith in the longer-term outlook for the team, feeling that, with another year or two of free agency and the draft, Adam Peters will be able to give Dan Quinn a deeper and more talented roster that can compete with anyone in the NFL.
Faith in the nearer term appears to be a bit less complete. Despite good coaching, great teamwork and outstanding play from the rookie quarterback, fans expect the 2024 season to end with an early exit from the playoffs due to a roster that simply hasn’t yet overcome the devastation wrought by years of poor drafting and mismanagement from the highest level.
The future appears bright, despite the need to overcome some significant challenges in the short term. With a little luck, it won’t be long before we see a juggernaut on the field playing in a shiny new stadium packed to the rafters with loud and happy Washington football fans.
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