In response to a piece that I wrote earlier this afternoon, poster/writer LASkin wondered allowed in the comments:
Comp picks only work if you have a fountain of talent that you are constantly replenishing. Most draft picks, especially comp picks, aren’t day 1 starters. They need a year or more of development before they are ready. That means you need reserves ready to step in for the departed players while you see what you’ve got with the comp picks. Sometimes you will hit the jackpot, most of the time you get nothing. I’d love to see the list of the 55 picks Baltimore has gotten – an entire roster’s worth – with their wAVs. I’ll bet they got a few studs, some marginal starters and some reserves, and about 25 duds. It works for them because they don’t need every comp pick to hit.
It sparked my curiosity, and with some free time to explore the question this afternoon, I decided to jump headlong down the rabbit hole. Since 1994, I’m fairly certain that the Ravens lead the league in compensatory picks generated, which is pretty amazing given that that franchise as it’s currently known didn’t even come into existence until 1996.
I went back through draft records for the past 25 years or so, and cross referenced the compensatory picks the Ravens made with the relative performance of those players. That information is presented below.
The format that follows is draft year (# of comp picks) in the heading. For each player, (draft round), name, (position), and career AV are listed, along with (years in the league).
1997 (4)
- (6) Cornell Brown (DE) – 19 (7)
- (7) Wally Richardson (QB) – 0 (1)
- (7) Ralph Staten (LB) – 4 (2)
- (7) Diego Jackson (DT) – 0 (0)
1998 (1)
- (7) Cam Quayle (TE) – 0 (0)
1999 (1)
- (4) Edwin Mulitalo (G) – 54 (10)
2000 (None)
2001 (None)
2002 (3)
- (6) Javin Hunter (WR) – 0 (1)
- (6) Chester Taylor (RB) – 49 (10)
- (6) Chad Williams (S) – 10 (5)
2003 (4)
- (4) Ovie Mughelli (FB) – 6 (9) – Pro Bowler
- (5) Tony Pashos (T) – 38 (9)
- (7) Mike Mabry (C) – 0 (0)
- (7) Antwoine Sanders (CB) – 0 (0)
2004 (3)
- (6) Clarence Moore (WR) – 2 (3)
- (7) Derek Abney (WR) – 0 (0)
- (7) Brian Rimpf (G) – 3 (2)
2005 (1)
- (6) Derek Anderson (QB) – 22 (13) – Pro Bowler
2006 (4)
- (4) P. J. Daniels (RB) – 0 (0)
- (5) Quinn Sypniewski (TE) – 2 (2)
- (6) Sam Koch (P) – 38 (16) – Pro Bowler
- (6) Derrick Martin (CB) – 5 (8)
2007 (4)
- (4) Antwan Barnes (LB) – 8 (8)
- (4) Le’Ron McClain (FB) – 13 (7) – All Pro/Pro Bowl
- (5) Troy Smith (QB) – 6 (4)
- (6) Prescott Burgess (LB) – 2 (4)
2008 (4)
- (3) Oniel Cousins (T) – 11 (7)
- (4) David Hale (T) – 1 (2)
- (6) Haruki Nakamura (S) – 10 (5)
- (7) Allen Patrick (RB) – 0 (0)
2009 (None)
2010 (None)
2011 (2)
- (5) Chykie Brown (CB) – 5 (5)
- (5) Pernell McPhee (DE) – 33 (11)
2012 (2)
- (4) Christian Thompson (S) – 0 (1)
- (5) Asa Jackson (CB) – 3 (6)
2013 (4)
- (4) Kyle Juszczyk (FB) – 22 (10) – 7-time Pro Bowler
- (5) Ricky Wagner (T) – 48 (8)
- (6) Ryan Jensen (T) – 48 (9) – Pro Bowl
- (7) Marc Anthony (CB) – 0 (0)
2014 (4)
- (3) Crockett Gillmore (TE) – 4 (3)
- (4) Brent Urban (DT) – 21 (8)
- (4) Lorenzo Taliaferro (RB) – 3 (3)
- (5) John Urschel (G) – 7 (3)
2015 (3)
- (4) Tray Walker (CB) – 0 (1)
- (5) Nick Boyle (TE) – 10 (8)
- (5) Robert Myers (G) – 0 (0)
2016 (3)
- (4) Willie Henry (DT) – 4 (3)
- (4) Kenneth Dixon (RB) – 7 (2)
- (6) Maurice Canady (CB) – 3 (5)
It becomes allowable to trade compensatory picks.
2017 (1)
- (3) Ravens traded to Eagles
2018 (2)
- (6) Greg Senat (T) – 1 (1)
- (6) Bradley Bozeman (C) – 29 (5)
2019 (None)
2020 (2)
- (3) Tyre Phillips (G) – 9 (3)
- (4) Ben Bredeson (G) – 5 (3)
2021 (1)
- (5) Ben Mason (FB) – 0 (0)
2022 (2)
- (4) Isaiah Likely (TE) – 4 (1)
- (4) Damarion Williams (CB) – 1 (1)
2023 (None)
Crunching the Numbers
So of this list of 55 players, just about 15 (27%) were true “busts,” basically never taking a snap in the league, or hardly contributing at all for the one season they may have seen some playing time.
Six of these players – including three fullbacks – were Pro Bowlers at least once in their career. An additional 17 of them had careers at least 5 years long in the league, either as consistent starters or reliable back-ups. Several from the past few years are still too young to evaluate, but guys like Isaiah Likely and Ben Bredeson appear on track for solid careers.
That would make around half of these picks either high end contributors, reliable starters, or back-end depth pieces that made it to a second contract in the NFL, which is a notable benchmark.
A Perpetual Pick Machine
Glancing back through Overthecap’s historical comp pick calculator it’s wild to see how the Ravens parlayed some of these players into future comp picks as well. For instance, Pernell McPhee, taken in the 5th round of the 2011 draft, was allowed to walk in 2015 and generate a 2016 4th round comp pick.
Similarly, when Kyle Juszczyk walked and was picked up by the 49ers in 2017, that loss helped shield the Ravens from losing a 6th round comp pick in 2018.
Conclusion
No, compensatory picks are not a silver bullet for success in the NFL, but well run teams can use them to dampen the salary cap implications of players occupying the middle and bottom of roster, as well as a mechanism to generate more lottery tickets in the annual rookie draft.
When you consider that over the years examined, a team like the Ravens has had nearly 3 times as many such picks as Washington has, it’s not difficult to see how that’s both a scathing commentary on the impoverished team building in the nation’s capital and at least one of the drivers for the two franchises’ dramatically divergent fortunes over the past quarter century.