Whether it’s for fantasy football or the real NFL, first-round quarterbacks seem to have a random fifty percent bust rate. This study is an expansion on the Ringer’s original Nature vs Nurture study, where they found “good” teams are way more likely to provide an environment where quarterbacks can thrive. So what really makes a good NFL quarterback? Is it their individual talent, or the situation they walk into?
What Makes a Good NFL Quarterback? Nature vs Nurture
The Method
For the sake of this discussion, I evaluated every quarterback from the last ten seasons, excluding those that major injuries derailed their career (Mariota, Lynch, Wentz) and those from the last two drafts because the jury is still out. For simplicity’s sake, each QB had three parts of their situation evaluated. Were their WRs good (did they have a Pro-Bowl or 1,000-yard receiver on their roster) was their offensive line good (top half on PFF’s rankings) and was their coach good (subjective but the beat writers at Last Word on Sports helped out here).
If these were true during their rookie contract, they received a plus. If not, a minus. The quarterbacks that received a second contract with their original team (or are a lock like Burrow) counted as a success. With that in mind, let’s look at the data.
What Makes a Good NFL Quarterback – The Good
This may come as a shocker, but the good quarterbacks fell into great situations. Ten out of eleven had a solid weapon, with Daniel Jones being the only one who succeeded without one. Nine out of eleven had a good coach, with just Blake Bortles (who is a technicality in the success bucket) and Deshaun Watson being exceptions. There’s even an argument that they had solid offensive coordinators or an offensive-minded head coach to at least help their individual development. They also almost all had solid offensive lines with Burrow and Watson overcoming adversity. Watson is the only player to be considered a success with two out of three columns in the negative.
The Bad
To be fair, these numbers could be worse. Five out of the seven players considered busts without injury had a good wide receiver. Four out of seven had an above-average offensive line before getting benched or cut. The real common denominator is coaching. Whether the coaches were fired because the quarterbacks were bad, or the quarterbacks were bad because the coaches were fired, only one of the seven quarterbacks had a “good” coach. Guys like Adam Gase and Mike Pettine, you get the idea. Kliff Kingsbury is the only “good” coach, and even that might be a stretch.
The Last Word on Quarterback Development
No quarterback was able to overcome three negative situations. Only one quarterback busted with all three being good, and that was Jameis Winston. Honestly, if Brady hadn’t stolen that spot Winston may have turned into something in Tampa Bay. Quarterbacks that land in a great situation with high draft capital (draft capital matters for fantasy football and real life) are twice as likely to receive a second contract as those that land on bad teams.
All in all, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagavailoa, and Joe Burrow all landed on teams that surrounded them with weaponry, tried to improve the offensive line, and most importantly gave them a good head coach. Patrick Mahomes is an all-world talent, but if he went to Matt Nagy instead of Andy Reid, would he be the same player? With these things in mind, Anthony Richardson seems to have the best chance of success, followed by Bryce Young, and let’s just say good luck, C.J. Stroud.
Main Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
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