Washington Commanders head coach will enter his 12th NFL season as a head coach in 2022. For coaches to last 12 years in the NFL, you must be a pretty good coach.
In his first 11 seasons, Rivera has compiled a record of 90-82-1, with a 3-5 mark in the postseason. Rivera owns a 14-19 regular-season record in two seasons with Washington and is 0-1 in the playoffs.
So, how does Rivera stack up against the NFL’s other head coaches?
Pro Football Focus recently ranked all NFL head coaches from 1-26. PFF did not rank the five first-time head coaches or anyone who was a head coach prior to 2011 (Josh McDaniels).
PFF’s rankings were with a twist. This wasn’t a random list someone scribbled down. Instead, PFF used analytical data to determine its rankings.
Here’s a snippet of how PFF’s process.
1) properly account for a team’s talent level, and 2) predict something less volatile than wins. We do this by creating a multilevel model where the fixed effects are the salaries of each starter on both sides of the ball, including an indicator for if the player is a rookie, and the target is points scored or allowed in a season. A starter is defined as the player who took the most snaps at their position, filtering out key injuries.
The 26 head coaches are ranked in four tiers: Hall-of-fame coaches, good coaches, average coaches and room for improvement.
Where did Rivera land?
PFF ranked Rivera in the “average coaches” tier, coming in at No. 18.
18. RON RIVERA, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (8.8 – 8.2 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)
Offensive Rank: 16/26 (+18 points scored a season)
Defensive Rank: 19/26 (+7 points allowed a season)
Despite Rivera learning as a defensive coordinator early in his coaching career, his defensive success as a head coach appears to be largely the product of his teams’ talent levels. Determining how much of a part he played in developing that talent is outside of this article’s scope.
You could debate Rivera has achieved better success than some of the coaches ahead of him. His critics would point out his 15-1 record in 2015 and that if you subtract that season, Rivera is a below-.500 coach.
That isn’t fair. Whether you believe Cam Newton carried that team or not, Rivera was the head coach and deserved some credit for Carolina’s success that season.
In assessing Rivera’s yearly records, he’s never won fewer than six games, and there are Washington fans who believe his strategy now is to hover close to .500 and hope for a few breaks and good health, and perhaps you can reach 10 or more wins.
I don’t believe Rivera is aspiring to be a .500 coach. Considering what he’s had to deal with since arriving in Washington in 2020, he’s done a terrific job. He was the absolute perfect coach over the last few seasons.
But, Rivera enters a pivotal 2022 season. We will learn about him as a head coach with his new quarterback Carson Wentz under center next season.
No surprise, Bill Belichick topped the list.