With the offseason upon us, and continued team building very much at the forefront of my mind, it’s just about the right time to start thinking about how Washington can get back on the compensatory draft pick horse. By and large, during the Dan Snyder era, Washington was atrocious at grooming talent who would be picked up by other teams as comp pick generators, and too often, they found themselves in the position of signing overpriced free agents who negated any comp pick capital they may have found themselves with.
If you are unfamiliar with the compensatory pick process in the NFL, I’d highly recommend checking out this resource at Overthecap.com.
Last season, with the front office turnover and “recalibration” well underway, it was clear the team was going to sign far too many free agents to generate any comp picks even though, in the absence of those signings, the signings elsewhere of Curtis Samuel, Jacoby Brissett, Kendall Fuller, Kam Curl, Cody Barton, and Antonio Gibson could have done so.
There are – at least – two questions this offseason on this topic: 1) Will Washington be more measured in the number of new free agents that it brings aboard? 2) Which of the pending free agents will be allowed to walk, and what’s their compensation likely to look like if they do? This article will be focused primarily on the second question, and which touch on the first, briefly, in the conclusion.
This offseason there are an astonishing 31 potential players who could leave in free agency (though several of them have recently been signed to reserve/future contracts). Only a few of those players, however, are of a sufficient caliber that they are likely to generate comp pick capital for the team.
Last year, the lowest contract amount to result in a comp pick qualifying free agent was $2.35M. We’ll assume around a 10% increase in the salary cap this year, and a corresponding 10% increase in the comp pick floor, setting the minimum contract value around $2.5M.
So who would command that sort of contract in free agency if they walked this offseason?
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Bobby Wagner (LB)
Before he came to Washington, Bobby Wagner had already crafted a Hall of Fame career. This season, he showed that, even at 34, he still had fuel in the tank. He served as an invaluable field general on the defense and mentor in the locker room, and played well enough on the field to get a Pro Bowl nod.
It’s still unclear whether Wagner might retire this offseason, whether he wants to be back in Washington, or whether Washington wants him back in a starting-level role. If Wagner does want to keep playing I would expect his next contract will be in the range of this year’s contract, which was $6.5M, and would likely generate a 6th round compensatory pick.
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Marcus Mariota (QB)
Like Jacoby Brissett demonstrated last year, the market for solid QB2s in the NFL is dependable and strong. If it’s not in Washington, Mariota would surely draw interest elsewhere, including with teams where he might get the opportunity to start at the position.
Mariota played an important role in helping to win two games this season, and also appears to have been a helpful presence for Jayden Daniels during his rookie season. I would love to have him back in DC, assuming it would be at around the same price.
Spotrac estimates his market value as $4.2M this offseason, which I think is too low. I expect him to get at least what he got this season, which was $6M. That would generate comp pick capital in the range of a 6th round pick.
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Jeremy Chinn (S)
Chinn came to Washington from Carolina on a 1-year “prove it” deal, after having struggled there over the previous two seasons. I think it’s safe to say he did prove his value, posting – arguably – the best year of his career. At 26 years old, he’s entering the prime of his career, and I strongly suspect he’s looking for a multi-year deal that provides him the opportunity to generate significant income.
This season, he was paid about $4.1M. I think a fair market deal would be in the range of $18M over 3 years ($6M/AAV). Were he to walk for that amount, he’d likely generate a 6th round pick.
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Dante Fowler (EDGE)
Fowler was signed as a pass rushing specialist this offseason, and he delivered, leading the team, by a wide margin, with 10.5 sacks. His 1-year, $3.25M deal likely improved his market value, even at 30 years of age. Spotrac has his market value at $5.2M going into this offseason.
Given its painful lack of pass rushing depth, it will be interesting to see if Washington re-signs Fowler, or if Adam Peters is content to allow him to walk.
At $5.2M, Fowler would generate a 6th round pick.
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Zach Ertz (TE)
I had originally intended to leave Ertz off this list, given that, based on his 2024 compensation of $3M, he was unlikely to qualify for a compensatory pick, but seeing that Spotrac has his market value at $5.3M, I thought it made sense to include him.
I don’t think I’d be inclined to bring Ertz back for over $5M, but I’d certainly sign him up again for $3M. Would someone else pay him that amount? I guess we’ll see over the next couple of months. If he’s compensated in that range, he’ll generate a 6th round pick.
Conclusion
The five players above, and perhaps one or two more – who could generate 7th round picks, are probably the only players who are realistically in this compensatory draft pick discussion. I wouldn’t be surprised if several of these players are re-signed by Washington, taking them out of the calculus altogether.
That leaves a very small window for comp pick generation, assuming that Washington is likely to sign at least 2 to 3 free agents who would cancel out any comp pick capital accrued. And that assumption, that Washington will be active in the free agent market, with something like $90M available, is something I strongly suspect will be accurate.
At this current phase of team building, we may still be at least a year – more likely two – before we see the organization in a good position to play the compensatory pick game. I have a high level of confidence we’ll get there, however, with San Francisco generating a massive amount of compensatory picks (11) over the past three years. Peters fully understands how important an advantage this is.